- Sep 29, 2006
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http://extrapoints.blogs.gatorsports.com/10447/gators-vs-tide-in-the-bcs-title-game/
Gators vs. Tide rematch in BCS title game?
by Jon McDonald
If you think that is just a salacious headline to attract readers to this blog, think again. It is a real possibility and it wouldn?t take a seismic shift in the college football landscape to make it happen.
Historically, the components involved in the BCS (Coaches? Poll, Harris Poll, computers) have conspired to keep out a team that did not win its conference championship.
Only twice have teams not won their conference championship and played in the BCS title game (Nebraska in 2001, Oklahoma 2003), and both lost.
More recently, the BCS kept two-loss Georgia out of the title game in 2007 in favor of SEC champion LSU, and in 2006, one-loss Michigan was kept from a rematch with Ohio State by voters favoring SEC champion Florida.
But all of that happened before the SEC became a powerhouse, before the SEC had claimed three straight national titles.
The truth now is that the SEC Championship Game is a play-in game for a spot in the BCS Championship Game, and it could be that way for the foreseeable future.
But what about the loser of that game? Well, there is a viable scenario out there that could get them a rematch in Pasadena.
To indulge this scenario, we need to assume Florida and Alabama will meet in Atlanta at a combined 24-0.
Florida, Texas and Alabama are the only three teams in the nation right now that control their own destinies for the BCS Championship Game. If Texas wins out (including the Big 12 title game), the Longhorns will face the winner of the SEC title game, that is a sure bet.
But Texas is not out of the woods yet. The Horns face two Big 12 teams that may need the win to become bowl-eligible. Texas plays Kansas at home this week and, with a win, would officially clinch a Big 12 Championship Game berth. Kansas started the year 5-0, but is mired in a five-game losing streak. The Longhorns then face Texas A&M. Both of those games shouldn?t give Texas fits, but a bigger matchup would loom.
James Brown and Texas dashed Nebraska's national title hopes in 1996. Will this be the year the Huskers return the favor? (The Associated Press)
Nebraska and Kansas State square off this week in a game that will decide who represents the Big 12 North in the conference title game on Dec. 5.
This is where it gets interesting. If Nebraska wins, it could keep Texas out of the national title game by winning the Big 12 Championship. The same trick that Texas pulled in the first Big 12 title game in 1996, when the Longhorns ruined Nebraska?s chance of winning a national championship.
If Texas loses, it would open a door that has been locked since the BCS began in 1999. An all-SEC national championship game.
Ted Ginn, Jr. and the Buckeyes beat Michigan and made it to the BCS title game in 2006. (The Associated Press)
In 2006, No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan met with perfect 11-0 records. The game turned out to be a classic, with Ohio State winning 42-39. When voters went to the polls the next day, they cast ballots in favor of a rematch, and Ohio State and Michigan remained 1-2 in the BCS standings. This showed two things about the BCS:
1. If a highly ranked team loses to a No. 1 in a close game, the computers do not punish the losing team too much. 2. The other element of the BCS, the human voters, are incredibly reactionary after what is considered to be a classic game.
If the Ohio State-Michigan game was played on the last week of the season, it would not be a stretch to say that a rematch would have been staged in the BCS Championship Game that season. The voters and computers were enamored with the Wolverines and Buckeyes, but as time passed (two weeks to be exact), more conference titles were won. The SEC Championship Game was so fresh in the voters? minds that they felt compelled to match the Gators with Ohio State in Glendale.
The only thing keeping Michigan from a rematch was scheduling. For the loser of the SEC title game, scheduling will not come into play, as the game is played on the last Saturday of the season.
The gulf between Texas and TCU in BCS average is nearly as big as the gap between Texas and Florida, and that comes after TCU defeated a ranked Utah team the previous week.
Clearly, the computers and voters are quite fond of the Gators and Tide (and to a lesser extent, Texas.)
The BCS average takes into account the strength of a team?s schedule, but what it does not take into account, yet, is the strength of a future opponent.
Therefore, neither Florida or Alabama are getting credit for their future game in their strength of schedule ratings.
The loser of the SEC title game will have schedule strength points added to its BCS average, perhaps cushioning its fall. A test case for this strength of schedule cushion theory happened two weeks ago when LSU (No. 9 in the BCS) faced Alabama (No. 3 in the BCS.) Alabama won a close game at home, 24-15, and moved up to No. 2 in the BCS. Amazingly, after losing the game and falling to 7-2 on the season, LSU actually moved up in the BCS to No. 8 because of the schedule strength that playing Alabama generated.
Coach Brian Kelly hopes that a win over Pitt would propel his Bearcats to a national title berth, but it might not. (The Associated Press)
If the SEC championship game is a nail-biter won in the final minutes, expect the BCS to be generous to the loser. If Texas loses, and TCU or Cincinnati cannot pick up enough support, expect to see a rematch between the Gators and Tide in the BCS title game. The game will be fresh in the minds of voters and in the circuit boards of the computers, and neither might be willing to send the Horned Frogs or Bearcats to Pasadena.
TCU doesn?t have much chance to improve its standing in the last two weeks of the season, finishing with games against Wyoming and New Mexico. Cincinnati does have a chance to improve, though, with contests left against Illinois and Pittsburgh (BCS No. 12.) But Florida and Alabama would have a conference championship game, as well as a 13th game on the schedule, against an opponent in the BCS top two. It might be too much for a Big East team, even an undefeated one, to overcome.
It should be interesting to see how the last few weeks work out. Be sure the BCS wants Texas to win out, but if Florida and Alabama somehow played each other for the national title, would that be fair to the winner of the SEC championship?
At that point, a better question might be: How fair is the BCS?
Gators vs. Tide rematch in BCS title game?
by Jon McDonald
If you think that is just a salacious headline to attract readers to this blog, think again. It is a real possibility and it wouldn?t take a seismic shift in the college football landscape to make it happen.
Historically, the components involved in the BCS (Coaches? Poll, Harris Poll, computers) have conspired to keep out a team that did not win its conference championship.
Only twice have teams not won their conference championship and played in the BCS title game (Nebraska in 2001, Oklahoma 2003), and both lost.
More recently, the BCS kept two-loss Georgia out of the title game in 2007 in favor of SEC champion LSU, and in 2006, one-loss Michigan was kept from a rematch with Ohio State by voters favoring SEC champion Florida.
But all of that happened before the SEC became a powerhouse, before the SEC had claimed three straight national titles.
The truth now is that the SEC Championship Game is a play-in game for a spot in the BCS Championship Game, and it could be that way for the foreseeable future.
But what about the loser of that game? Well, there is a viable scenario out there that could get them a rematch in Pasadena.
To indulge this scenario, we need to assume Florida and Alabama will meet in Atlanta at a combined 24-0.
Florida, Texas and Alabama are the only three teams in the nation right now that control their own destinies for the BCS Championship Game. If Texas wins out (including the Big 12 title game), the Longhorns will face the winner of the SEC title game, that is a sure bet.
But Texas is not out of the woods yet. The Horns face two Big 12 teams that may need the win to become bowl-eligible. Texas plays Kansas at home this week and, with a win, would officially clinch a Big 12 Championship Game berth. Kansas started the year 5-0, but is mired in a five-game losing streak. The Longhorns then face Texas A&M. Both of those games shouldn?t give Texas fits, but a bigger matchup would loom.
James Brown and Texas dashed Nebraska's national title hopes in 1996. Will this be the year the Huskers return the favor? (The Associated Press)
Nebraska and Kansas State square off this week in a game that will decide who represents the Big 12 North in the conference title game on Dec. 5.
This is where it gets interesting. If Nebraska wins, it could keep Texas out of the national title game by winning the Big 12 Championship. The same trick that Texas pulled in the first Big 12 title game in 1996, when the Longhorns ruined Nebraska?s chance of winning a national championship.
If Texas loses, it would open a door that has been locked since the BCS began in 1999. An all-SEC national championship game.
Ted Ginn, Jr. and the Buckeyes beat Michigan and made it to the BCS title game in 2006. (The Associated Press)
In 2006, No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan met with perfect 11-0 records. The game turned out to be a classic, with Ohio State winning 42-39. When voters went to the polls the next day, they cast ballots in favor of a rematch, and Ohio State and Michigan remained 1-2 in the BCS standings. This showed two things about the BCS:
1. If a highly ranked team loses to a No. 1 in a close game, the computers do not punish the losing team too much. 2. The other element of the BCS, the human voters, are incredibly reactionary after what is considered to be a classic game.
If the Ohio State-Michigan game was played on the last week of the season, it would not be a stretch to say that a rematch would have been staged in the BCS Championship Game that season. The voters and computers were enamored with the Wolverines and Buckeyes, but as time passed (two weeks to be exact), more conference titles were won. The SEC Championship Game was so fresh in the voters? minds that they felt compelled to match the Gators with Ohio State in Glendale.
The only thing keeping Michigan from a rematch was scheduling. For the loser of the SEC title game, scheduling will not come into play, as the game is played on the last Saturday of the season.
The gulf between Texas and TCU in BCS average is nearly as big as the gap between Texas and Florida, and that comes after TCU defeated a ranked Utah team the previous week.
Clearly, the computers and voters are quite fond of the Gators and Tide (and to a lesser extent, Texas.)
The BCS average takes into account the strength of a team?s schedule, but what it does not take into account, yet, is the strength of a future opponent.
Therefore, neither Florida or Alabama are getting credit for their future game in their strength of schedule ratings.
The loser of the SEC title game will have schedule strength points added to its BCS average, perhaps cushioning its fall. A test case for this strength of schedule cushion theory happened two weeks ago when LSU (No. 9 in the BCS) faced Alabama (No. 3 in the BCS.) Alabama won a close game at home, 24-15, and moved up to No. 2 in the BCS. Amazingly, after losing the game and falling to 7-2 on the season, LSU actually moved up in the BCS to No. 8 because of the schedule strength that playing Alabama generated.
Coach Brian Kelly hopes that a win over Pitt would propel his Bearcats to a national title berth, but it might not. (The Associated Press)
If the SEC championship game is a nail-biter won in the final minutes, expect the BCS to be generous to the loser. If Texas loses, and TCU or Cincinnati cannot pick up enough support, expect to see a rematch between the Gators and Tide in the BCS title game. The game will be fresh in the minds of voters and in the circuit boards of the computers, and neither might be willing to send the Horned Frogs or Bearcats to Pasadena.
TCU doesn?t have much chance to improve its standing in the last two weeks of the season, finishing with games against Wyoming and New Mexico. Cincinnati does have a chance to improve, though, with contests left against Illinois and Pittsburgh (BCS No. 12.) But Florida and Alabama would have a conference championship game, as well as a 13th game on the schedule, against an opponent in the BCS top two. It might be too much for a Big East team, even an undefeated one, to overcome.
It should be interesting to see how the last few weeks work out. Be sure the BCS wants Texas to win out, but if Florida and Alabama somehow played each other for the national title, would that be fair to the winner of the SEC championship?
At that point, a better question might be: How fair is the BCS?
