Georgetown : Pre-Game Report

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Preview

Like a boxer who has broken his punching hand in the early rounds of a fight, the 2013-14 Georgetown Hoyas seem to know what awaits them--as the punches wane, the pain grows.

The Hoyas dropped its fourth consecutive game for the first time in five seasons Saturday, and at least two more losses this week are likely given the Hoyas' depth and lack of offensive activity inside. But if anything, its 76-63 loss to Creighton gave Georgetown some teachable moments on how to battle a Villanova team which is every bid as formidable than Creighton.

At 17-2, Villanova is poised for a strong seeding in the NCAA's, a deeper and potentially more difficult matchup for tournament teams than Creighton. Four starters average in double figures and (excepting Creighton), the Wildcats have kept opponents in check from three point range. Always a good team at the line, the Cats average nearly 20 points a game from the free throw line.

Nonetheless, Georgetown has won eight of the last ten in the series, usually by forcing the tempo well under Villanova's style for an up and down game. The Wildcats have played only two games this season scoring less than 70 points, and that's a number which gives the Hoyas, bruises and all, a fighting chance.

After a promising but inconsistent freshman season, sophomore Ryan Arcidiacono is beginning to get the consistency Villanova need at the point, with a 20 point, 11 assist effort Saturday against Marquette. A streaky shooter, his 30 percent mark from outside is a concern, but he can get a hot in a hurry, too. The Cats have also been getting dividends in the backcourt from 6-6 Darrun Hilliard, with double figure points in 17 games this season and coming off a 20 point effort against the Warriors as well. A key for Villanova's guards will be to attack the middle where is Georgetown is weak and avoid trying to win the game from the outside.

Georgetown did an admirable job keeping Creighton's Doug McDermott from taking over the game Saturday, and now must focus on not one, but two Villanova players capable of doing the same. Junior forward JayVaughn Pinkston scored 20 Against the Hoyas last season in Philadelphia and remains Villanova's most consistent inside presence. Pinkston is not an outside threat but he can drive the ball and this is something Creighton did not do much of, which allowed Georgetown to avoid the foul trouble that could sink the Hoyas' hopes early.

The X-factor for the Wildcats is senior James Bell. After a rocky start in Big East play, Bell has stepped up for the Wildcats, with a career high 30 in the win over Marquette. If the Hoyas are to make a game of it, they must contain Bell and force Pinkston off the ball. Villanova is getting serviceable work from center Daniel Ochefu, but the Cats aren't going to win the game on the perimeter, and need both Pinkston and Bell to lead the charge.

Georgetown's recipe for an upset remains fairly consistent: a combined 40 points in the backcourt, a stopper in the middle, two more players among the remaining six willing to step up and help shoulder the scoring load and a slower scoring pace. The Hoyas achieve three of the four, but aside from Mikael Hopkins, the Hoyas never go that fourth scoring option. Reggie Cameron scored five points in the opening minutes of the second half and none thereafter, while Nate Lubick's offense has all but disappeared. Defense keeps Lubick in the game, but opponents are all but daring the 6-8 senior to shoot, and that's a bad sign.

While Aaron Bowen's shooting can be erratic, Georgetown needs more out of him, inside and out, for Georgetown to stay close. Bowen is 1-7 over the last two games and his defense can't make up for numbers like those.



Some keys to the game:

Stay Under 70: Villanova is 16-0 this season and 40-10 since 2012 when scoring above 70, 1-2 under it.
Points In The Paint: Georgetown lost ten points in the first half at Creighton from missed shots at close range. They must convert inside to contend,
Interior Defense: Pinkston and Bell must be contained from inside and switching defenses may be common.
Foul Trouble: Villanova drags down games at the line. If Georgetown plays along, John Caprio might be back at center by game's end.
 

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Big East RPI 1/27/14

Here are the RPI ratings for Big East teams through January 26. Teams with an RPI above 40 are likely NCAA at-large entrants, those between 40-50 are in the discussion, while those below 50 are generally not selected.

Georgetown has dropped from 54 to 72 in the RPI over the past week.

4. Villanova 17-2, 6-1
10. Creighton 17-3, 7-1
25. Xavier 14-5, 5-2

43. Providence 15-5, 5-2

72. Georgetown 11-8, 3-5
77. St. John's 12-8, 2-5
86. Marquette 11-9, 3-4
102. DePaul 10-11, 2-6
104. Butler 10-9, 1-7
117. Seton Hall 12-8, 3-4
 
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