GIANTS PREVIEW

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Expectations low, but there's 162 games to go


Late last summer, in a weekend home game, the Giants were playing a typically brutal game when an observer was struck by what he saw in the stands.

Fathers and mothers sat with sons and daughters, the little kids smiling as they wiggled in their seats or sat on edge, gloves in hand, waiting for the foul balls they swore would come their way. Friends laughed as they awaited the poor soul in their group whose turn it was to take out a home equity loan and return with four beers.

The mood in the park was quite a contrast to the score, and more so to the hate and vitriol being spewed on the Internet and talk radio toward the Giants' front office for giving Ray Durham a two-year deal and not building a decent farm system ahead of Barry Bonds' departure. Had that frequent-flier Martian landed in San Francisco and flipped on KNBR, he would have thought Brian Sabean and Peter Magowan were serial killers.

They merely were the general manager and managing general partner of a 71-91 team that is expected to be just as bad, or worse, in 2008. But who really knows? The Giants have to play 162 games, starting a week from Monday in Los Angeles, and all spring people have been obsessed with the destination (62-100 is a popular guess) rather than the journey.

Magowan and his partners need fans to hop on board for the trip because that nasty mortgage still needs to be paid. Thus, he will not say, "We really are rebuilding for 2009, so go spend your money on the opera." But he does sound sincere in his belief that if a lot of things go right, the Giants can stay in the National League West mix.

"If it all comes together at the same time, you can make quite a change," Magowan said. "In baseball, there is so much parity now. No teams are playing more than .600 baseball and no teams are worse than .400. You're playing each other all the time, 19 games (within the division). Do you see anybody in this division jumping out to a 10-game lead by the All-Star break when they're playing each other as often as they do? When they're all good? I don't."

What exactly does "coming together" mean for the Giants?

The rotation has to be as good or better than its reputation, and closer Brian Wilson and his relief mates have to put the "bull" back in the Giants' bullpen. Some of the old guys - Durham, Rich Aurilia, Dave Roberts - have to discover the fountain of youth while some of the young guys - Kevin Frandsen, Daniel Ortmeier, Fred Lewis, Eugenio Velez - need to break the team's endless cycle of fizzling prospects.

"I think we all learned from last year, if you play consistent, true, National League baseball, which is pitching, defense, score the runs you're supposed to and close the games out, we're going to win a lot of games," Sabean said. "You don't have to do it with a marquee player, and you don't have to do it with a team hitting the ball over the wall.

"The Atlanta Braves weren't known as a team that was an offensive juggernaut, but they won every close game, they expected to win those games, and they also closed all the close games out. It's really a simple formula until we get into a better position to remake the lineup."

Spring training, largely dismal for the Giants, offered a few glimpses of hope.

When the Giants ran successfully, they changed the tenor of games. In one against the A's, they were trailing 2-1 in the seventh inning when Velez singled against Alan Embree. Velez stole second and had third base stolen, too, on a pitch that Nate Schierholtz hit foul.

Embree had a lot of Velez and very little of Schierholtz on his mind, so it was not surprising when the left-hander grooved one and Schierholtz knocked the ball out of the park to give the Giants a 3-2 victory.

"It's a great way to put the defense on edge," right fielder Randy Winn said of running.

Another positive sign, at least for spring training: Durham, Aurilia and Roberts all were hitting, which they did not do in 2007. For Aurilia and Roberts, injuries played a role. Now, both are healthy.

"We need for them to turn it around," manager Bruce Bochy said. "For a team to have success, you're counting on your guys to have their normal years. It's always nice to have a surprise or two from a young guy or a veteran. When you don't get the years that you expect, you're probably going to struggle a little bit. That was part of our struggles last year."

There was one nagging problem all spring that will not magically disappear. Catcher Bengie Molina had a strained quadriceps muscle. The Giants were ridiculed all spring for making Molina their cleanup hitter, but imagine how the lineup would look without him.

Finally, the Giants need to live up to their motto, "All Out, All Season," which is easier said than done. One bad month, and a clubhouse landslide could begin. In that case, the character test would be how well the leadership can shore up the mountain.

Can all of these things go the Giants' way and make them a decent team in 2008? Why even ask the question? The answer is not buried in some Himalayan time capsule. It will unfold before everybody's eyes, a journey of 162 steps that always is worth watching.
Five keys

1. Call to arms: The Giants' strength is on the mound. As their pitchers go, so goes the team.

2. Run boys run: If they can't hit the ball out of the park, they have to use their legs to make things happen.

3. Zito comeback: Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are swell, but Barry Zito needs to rediscover his inner ace to make those 200 innings mean something.

4. Clutch hits: Last year they were nonexistent. This year the Giants will need to be Jerry West in spikes to have any chance.

5. Nail it down: Once they get that clutch hit, Brian Wilson needs to be the closer the team expects.
 

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GIANTS SCOUTING REPORT


OUTFIELD
# Name B/T Ht. Wt. Birth date
28 Rajai Davis R/R 5-11 195 10/19/80
14 Fred Lewis L/R 6-2 190 12/09/80
10 Dave Roberts L/L 5-10 180 05/31/72
33 Aaron Rowand R/R 6-0 200 08/29/77
12 Nate Schierholtz L/R 6-2 215 02/15/84
2 Randy Winn S/R 6-2 195 06/09/74

Strengths: With Rowand in and Barry Bonds out, the defense should be solid no matter who plays left. Rowand and Randy Winn rarely miss games, adding stability. Lewis and Schierholtz, in the minors for now, each offer hope for the future.

Concerns: Rowand's numbers could decline markedly in a pitchers' park. Team will get little or no power from the corner outfielders, who usually provide it. If the Giants do not deal away an older outfielder, young guys might not get the ABs fans want to see.
INFIELD
# Name B/T Ht. Wt. Birth date
35 Rich Aurilia R/R 6-1 190 09/02/71
Jose Castillo R/R 6-1 218 03/19/81
5 Ray Durham S/R 5-8 190 11/30/71
19 Kevin Frandsen R/R 6-0 180 05/24/82
40 Daniel Ortmeier S/L 6-4 215 05/11/81
57 Eugenio Velez S/R 6-1 160 05/16/82
13 Omar Vizquel S/R 5-9 175 04/24/67

Strengths: Omar Vizquel, who currently is on the DL, seemingly can rise from a nap and play superb defense. Ray Durham always seems to play his best in contract years. Daniel Ortmeier has been a quick learner at first base.

Concerns: If Vizquel has trouble coming back from his knee surgery, overall infield defense could be the spottiest in years. Team is counting a lot on Ortmeier, who struggled to hit in spring training. Even late in spring the brass was scratching its head over who would play third.
CATCHER
# Name B/T Ht. Wt. Birth date
50 Eliezer Alfonzo R/R 5-11 210 02/07/79
1 Bengie Molina R/R 5-11 225 07/20/74
39 Guillermo Rodriguez R/R 5-11 195 05/15/78

Strengths: Molina was an excellent clutch hitter in '07 and has the confidence of his pitchers. Rodriguez and Alfonzo, two longtime minor-leaguers, have proven themselves as competent backups.

Concerns: Baseball is laughing at the Giants for making Molina their cleanup hitter. (Notice that he's not laughing.) Last year, he took every loss like a punch in the gut. This year, he could get an ulcer.
ROTATION
# Name B/T Ht. Wt. Birth date
18 Matt Cain R/R 6-3 235 10/01/84
32 Kevin Correia R/R 6-3 205 08/24/80
55 Tim Lincecum L/R 5-11 170 06/15/84
51 Noah Lowry R/L 6-2 205 10/10/80
53 Jonathan Sanchez L/L 6-2 180 11/19/82
75 Barry Zito L/L 6-4 210 05/13/78

Strengths: Cain and Lincecum could be the two best reasons to visit the yard this year. For all his issues, Zito still takes the ball every fifth day and serves as a fine big brother to the kids. When Lowry is healthy, Correia will make a heck of a fifth starter. Sanchez fills that role in the meantime.

Concerns: The best starters still are young, and thus, subject to inconsistency. How will Cain react if he loses another mess of games because the Giants don't score? Lowry is holding his breath hoping unusual surgery finally cured him.
BULLPEN
# Name B/T Ht. Wt. Birth date
31 Vinnie Chulk R/R 6-2 195 12/19/78
41 Brad Hennessey R/R 6-2 200 02/07/80
34 Steve Kline R/L 6-1 230 08/22/72
37 Jack Taschner L/L 6-3 210 04/21/78
60 Erick Threets L/L 6-5 240 11/04/81
64 Merkin Valdez R/R 6-5 220 11/10/81
45 Tyler Walker R/R 6-3 275 05/15/76
38 Brian Wilson R/R 6-1 205 03/16/82

Strengths: Walker and Hennessey have valuable experience closing games, which is good backup for Wilson. Chulk looked good in spring training, back from circulatory issues. Longtime minor-league hopefuls Threets and Valdez could be ready.

Concerns: Who will get that big lefty hitter out late in the game? Kline and Taschner struggled in that role last year. Roles might be hard to define if the team consistently loses. For all his power, confidence and steeliness, Wilson remains virtually untested in the 'pen's most critical job.
BENCH

With Velez, Lewis and Davis, the Giants could have one of the quickest benches in baseball. On days Roberts and Durham do not start, they add experience in the later innings. However, a good bench has that one slugger who can threaten to tie a three-run game with one swing. Here, he is nowhere to be found.
INTANGIBLES

The lighter clubhouse sans Bonds has been well-documented. But how light will it be if the Giants are as bad as most people expect them to be? Who will hold the group together? Manager Bruce Bochy will earn his money this year, with one eye on the clubhouse and the other on what promises to be an ever-changing lineup card.
 

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The Giants, whose infield corps has gone from thin to thinner, added a new player to the mix when they claimed Jose Castillo off waivers from the Marlins.

Castillo will be available for today's exhibition against the Rangers, according to Bobby Evans, director of player personnel.

"We'll look at him at third base," Evans said. "The reports on him in spring training have been good. This increases the inventory of players who can play a variety of positions."

Shortstop Omar Vizquel will open the season on the disabled list, second baseman Ray Durham missed his third straight game with a tight left hamstring and Kevin Frandsen hasn't played since March 16 because of a strained Achilles tendon.

Saturday's infield had three untested players: shortstop Brian Bocock, second baseman Eugenio Velez and first baseman Daniel Ortmeier, along with 36-year-old Rich Aurilia at third. Still, it's no guarantee Castillo will make the 25-man roster. He still has options, meaning he could open the season at Triple-A Fresno.

"We're a little thin," manager Bruce Bochy said. "We have two second basemen hurt right now, and (Castillo) is a guy we hope can cover us."

Castillo, 27, played the past four years with Pittsburgh, the first three as the starting second baseman. But he fell out of favor with manager Jim Tracy, got demoted to utility status last year and played a career-low 87 games, largely at third base.

He was released Dec. 10 and signed a $650,000 contract with the Marlins, hitting .275 in 51 at-bats this spring.

"He has all the ability to be great," said Rajai Davis, who was in the Pirates' organization before his July trade to the Giants. "It's really on him. He dictates his own success. It's about how hard he's willing to work. He has all the ability to have success at this level."

Castillo's downfall in Pittsburgh began when he sprained a knee in August 2005, and his inability to train hard that offseason didn't make for a good impression on Tracy, who took over the team in 2006. Castillo lost weight entering 2007, but Tracy went with Jose Bautista at third and moved Freddy Sanchez to second, leaving Castillo out of the mix.

After last season, Castillo played winter ball in Venezuela and hit .384 to win the batting title. He's a .256 career hitter (.297 on-base percentage) with 33 homers and 181 RBIs in 465 games.

"He can help a lot. He's a good player and good guy," said Giants catcher Eliezer Alfonzo, the MVP in Venezuela.

Giants win two in row: In the best outing by a Giants starter, Matt Cain tossed five-hit ball over six scoreless innings in an 8-1 victory over the Brewers. He walked one and struck out eight - a big step after he surrendered seven first-inning runs his previous two starts.

Afterward, he seemed in awe of Velez, who replaced Durham at second, stole his 13th base and nearly had two triples (one was a ground-rule double). Fred Lewis also tripled.

"There's nothing better than having those guys rake and watching them run," Cain said. "Speed just never gets old for some reason. It's tough to defend it."

Rehab central: Pitcher Noah Lowry and Vizquel, both recovering from surgeries, continued to push themselves.

Lowry threw for the second time in three days (30 throws from 50 feet) and will continue an every-other-day routine. When the Giants break camp Tuesday, he'll remain in Arizona to rehab.

Vizquel ran for a second straight day, a little more intensely Saturday. He said his left knee is "still not stable," but he felt good enough to take some swings (off coaches' pitches), field grounders and make some tosses to second base.

Lowry is still aiming at a late April return. Vizquel had targeted the April 7 home opener, but said Saturday he's simply trying to return that week.
 

EXTRAPOLATER

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over/under on their team OPS through May is .685

was .701 last year (through May)

I'm fading any cold starter for these guys at any decent price. That means seeing some evidence first, I guess, as 5 of the SPs listed all can pitch. lefty Sanchez--odd man out--I've seen enough evidence of--last year & this spring.

like the report

got more?
 
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ImFeklhr

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over/under on their team OPS through May is .685

was .701 last year (through May)

I'm fading any cold starter for these guys at any decent price. That means seeing some evidence first, I guess, as 5 of the SPs listed all can pitch. lefty Sanchez--odd man out--I've seen enough evidence of--last year & this spring.

like the report

got more?

Fade the Giants with regularity. Their infield offense will be one of the ten worst the majors has seen in the modern-era. Ray Durham and Omar were the two worst statistical starting position players in the National League last year. At any position! No hyperbole, simply a statistical truth.

Ortmeier has very little power, and doesn't take walks. Third base is a black hole.

The San Francisco Giants management (Brian Sabean) has basically lost any credibility with smart Giants fans (of which there is a devoted following). His moves lack foward thinking, creativity, and rely too much on "baseball card analysis"... that is: signing players based on the stats they put up 3 years ago, in their prime. etc. He has no "moneyball knowledge" and has made horrible trades in recent years.

The one saving grace is the Giants have developed pitching very well the last 5 years, and finally seem to have good hitting prospects in the low minors.

As a die-hard Giants fan, I could go on and on, but suffice it to say they are going to SUCK big time this year, and probably next year. They would be best off making smart trades for impact players who will be on the next contending Giants team in 3-4 years, and not trade away ANY young players who might develop into good players. Youth Youth Youth... and some pitching.

The Giants will probably lose about 90-93 games, and score & allow below average amounts of runs. So there will be spots where they might have value as big ML dogs, as the season progresses, if they momentarily get hot. I'd pick my spots carefully though, and bet against them in long stretches.

If I had to predict the exact flow of their season, I would describe it this way: April they might over-achieve and play close to .500 ball. May-July they will play about the worst baseball in the National League. Late August/September they might have a few bright spots, as they field all the kids in the organization and the play over their head for a week or two.
 

EXTRAPOLATER

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like I said about fading a cold starter,
I'll be looking at unders with a hot starter.

Horrid spring, and greatly the hitting.

Good to hear from a fan on it.
My prediction was the Leafs would suck this year and not the make the playoffs and they've been my team before I had ever heard of baseball. Maybe a fan prediction is worth something. Had lots of arguments about other Leafs fans about this and they still suck into the optimism. Two, three years ago maybe but not with this sorry team. Still might fluke into the playoffs (+450) but would be squashed.

Good stuff.

And, IE, I'd like to see more of these scouting reports if you got 'em. Different format than the ones I'm using.

Will check spring numbers again and consider SP's and maybe wait to see a start. Fade or under looks good on the Giants from April on.
 
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bleedingpurple

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Where it is real F ing COLD
Twins Season

Twins Season

I would say that they care foing to struggle but with young pitchers you never know. You are right though Garza was the most talented of the three mentioned. Baker and Bonzer are iffy. Bonser did lose 30 pounds in the off season and says he has more energy.. We will soon see. Baker has moments of greatness but real good hitting teams usually can bang him around. The Twins strenght is the bullpen. That Pen is really good and they get Jessie Crain back this year. Rincon had a terrible year last year and need him to rebound.. They have Guerrier, Neshek, and Nathan who are dynamite. I expect the Twins to wiin 75 games. If things fall into place they could win 81 - 84 but remeber they play TIgers and Indians multiple times. I don't know if you like to season totals, but I would pick Milwaukee and Tampa as definite overs and Baltimore under, I think their total is at 66 but I believe the Orioles to be the worst in ball this year.
 

IE

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Frandsen's season may be over before it begins

TUCSON -- Infielder Kevin Frandsen was supposed to be one of the fresh faces in the Giants' youth movement, playing the game with hustle and resolve.

Now Frandsen's resolve will be tested. He is expected to miss most -- if not all -- of this season after sustaining a significant injury to his left Achilles' tendon, manager Bruce Bochy said Monday.

Frandsen was playing in a minor league game at the Giants' complex in Scottsdale, Ariz., and hurt himself while trying to go from first base to third on a single, Bochy said. Trainers are almost certain that he tore the ligament; an MRI exam was scheduled to confirm the diagnosis.

"We're probably looking at surgery as soon as possible," said Bochy, adding that recovery time is typically five to six months.

Bochy said Frandsen had secured a place on the Opening Day roster and the manager had hoped to find him consistent at-bats at second base and third. When camp opened, Frandsen was in competition with Ray Durham to start at second base; nagging injuries have slowed both players.

Frandsen had taken grounders and batting practice in recent days but Monday was his first game action since March 16 because of a sore Achilles' tendon. The San Jose native said last week the injury had bothered him most of the spring.

"That's why we held him back and had him in a minor league game, to be cautious," Bochy said.

Giants players were crestfallen upon hearing the news after a 6-5 exhibition loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks
at Tucson.

"He's got to be crushed," first baseman Daniel Ortmeier said. "Our thoughts and prayers are going to be with him. He'll take it pretty hard. We all are. He's a good buddy and teammate."

Said Bochy: "This kid has worked so hard. ... I'm sure it's tough for his psyche and he's got a long road now, but he's not going to let up. He'll be back.

"The plan was to have him on the club and get him all the playing time we could get him."

Frandsen, 25, is a Bellarmine College Prep alum and holds the all-time record for hits at San Jose State. He is a .322 hitter over parts of four minor league seasons and excelled when the Giants gave him regular playing time at second base this past September.

Frandsen did not return a message left on his cell phone.

Bochy said Frandsen's injury changes some of the conclusions he had reached about his fluid infield. Jose Castillo is now a lock to make the team, either as a backup at three infield spots or possibly as a starter.

The Giants might be more likely to stick with Ortmeier at first base and give Rich Aurilia the bulk of time at third.

Bochy also said Brian Bocock continued to be the front-runner to open the season at shortstop and remain with the club until Omar Vizquel returns in early April.

The club was planning to discuss other additions via trade or through the waiver wire. One is Robert Fick, who was released by the San Diego Padres and has played for Bochy in the past. Fick's agent, Eric Goldschmidt, said he planned to talk with Giants officials late Monday.
 
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