Give me Cal and N.Ill

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
2004 NCAA Regular Season: 55-49 (+3.58*)

2004-2005 NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 2-3 (-1.92*)



California(-11)(-108) over Texas Tech (1.50*)

My initial inclination in this game was that Cal might be overvalued with the loss of WR MacArthur as their remaining option as a true downfield or speed receiver (on top of the loss of Lyman), but I thought better of it without much concern that it would be outcome determinative in this contest.

You make your own call on whether Cal has had the look of something special on the field and in the lockerroom all year long to match the hype. Cal has been a team of great ambitions all season, and a realistic roadmap to the No. 2 national ranking is still right in front of their eyes. Most of the squawking about no Roses has come from those around the University and not those in the program getting ready for the kickoff, and perceived slights can be a good thing under the right circumstances. Jeff Tedford is a tremendous leader committed to the long term success of Cal football, and I'll wager on a valedictory effort in which Cal closes the season in San Diego by playing up to their potential. I've been wrong before, but not regarding Cal this season.

As I see it, Cal plays without fear, and mistakes are overcome by overwhelming runs of splendid play. At times when they attack on offense and flow to the ball on defense, it looks like they snuck 12 guys on the field. They have absolute studs on both lines of scrimmage, a great player and leader at quarterback, balance and toughness, and a talented headman with four weeks to coordinate the pieces. Whether it be attacking the spreads along the Tech OL and disrupting their offensive timing through a mix of pass rush, coverages, integrity of schemes and intensity, or drilling Tech back one step after Tech marches two steps forward, or hammering away with an offensive assault on Tech's defensive shortcomings, I suspect Cal's coaches know the score and have the players to make their efforts work. The Texas Tech teams I'm familiar with under HC Mike Leach, including this one, have characteristic streaks of frustration and an inability to adapt when the tempo isn't going in their favor. IMO, all season long Cal has faced offenses and teams as dynamic as their foe tonight, and the results have been lacking in surprises.

GL
 

lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,531
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83
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Northern Illinois(+2')(-105) over Troy State (1.50*)

My own research and thinking on this game is more or less right in line with gman's take - I'll add my own spin to just a couple of points.

Northern Illinois has waited a long time for this one, although they had pretty strong resumes the last two seasons. And they came on strong this season, but still came up a bit short of the full bite of the apple they still want to taste, but this game is the only proxy they have . . . Given the distance involved, I understand the Huskies' Bowl contingent is smashing every record and yardstick for this game and locality, which surprises not at all.

Troy manages games with their freshman quarterback, relies hugely on turnovers to make things happen, and has not been particularly successful with that strategy on the road. Northern Illinois plays to win with their own measure of toughness, preparation and balance, impresses me with instances of turning around momentum and tempo to get it accomplished, and is a veteran team that takes care of the ball with a quarterback who can be looked to to make a difference.

GL
 
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