part of the reason toledo is so good is because of the significant edge they hold on the offensive line.
but that edge normally doesnt show up until the 2nd half when defenses just start wearing down.
for as great a team as toledo is, theyre not a particularly fast-starting team. theyre very similar to hawaii. both teams kinda 'feel the opponent out' in the first quarter or so, and then just lay it on and score in bunches in quarters 2 through 4.
in their last three games, toledo been down at halftime by scores of:
17-14
27-7
14-7
in the 2nd half of those games, toledo outscored bg/niu/miami by a combined 87-27. their offensive line opened up enormous holes and toledo controlled the ground game.
i actually do think toledo will reverse that trend and get off to a fast start so they wont need to turn it on in the final 30:00. but i couldnt bet on it.
as long as toledo is within 7 points at halftime, i really feel like theyll cover.