Golden State / Phila

[Nolan Dalla]

The Sixers played one of the worst halfs of basketball in NBA history, on Sunday, barely showing up for a night game at the Celtics that may very well go down as one of the worst basketball games in the last decade. The Sixers scored just 23 points in the first half. Thier shooting precentages declined from 27 percent (1Q) to 17 percent (2Q) to a stunning 7 percent in the third quarter. The Sixers ended up with 26 percent shooting from the field for the game.

Now, the lowly Sixers come back home for a game against a Golden State team that is playing pretty well at the moment. Warriors have looked good in recent home wins.

From the outset, this game looks like a Warriors win, especially with all the turmoil in Philadelphia. No line on the game yet, due to Iverson situation.

Regardless of the line, I expect the Sixers to play well tonight. First, they are at home, where they are 20-16 on the home court this season. Contrast this with the Warriors, who have one of the NBA's worst road records, at 8-27 SU. This game should be listed close to pick, and the Sixers are clearly in a good spot coming off a humiliating performance and now playing a weak defensive team. The Iverson situation really should not influcne the line (It will, but it shouldn't). Without Iverson, the Sixers are 14-16 this season. With him, they are 8 games under .500 The Sixers may very well be better off without him for this game.

These are tow lousy teams gooing nowhere. But the home team has greater incentive and a history to prove it. Meanwhile, the Warriors have been an awful road team, gettins spanked by some of the NBA's worst teams on the road this season. Here's another deadbeat game for the Warriors, who I will be betting against, tonight.

PLAYING PHILADELPHIA (line pending)

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[ocelot]

Totally agree with Nolan here. I'll be looking to ride the 76ers in this spot though I'll be holding my nose.

 

[edludes]

Thank you very much for the great post.I firmly believe that anytime a performance is so pronouncedly bad or good the next game will be a contrast to it.Thanks for bringing it to everyones attention.GL

 

[Bill]

Nolan, I have followed your writings very regularly and have a lot of respect for your capping skills and your writing ability. You once made a state to me in an email a couple of years ago, that one should never bet on the improbable: I think the 6ers are an improbable for the following reasons.

1. They really are in a state of disarray.

2. Though most teams (I think in excess of 70%) bounce back to cover after a SU loss of 20+ points within 2 games of the defeat.

3. The significant exception to point two is when a team is defeated SU by by more than 30 points they lose ATS the next game (do not have numbers but IE may).

4. GS sees this as a game to continue making a statement of their improved conpetitiveness by beating a team it has handles 4 of last five meetings.

5. GS crashes boards and 6ers have no inside game to contest and not breakout backcourt to take advantage of GS's defensive lapses.

I seldomly post but check this board for thoughts. I felt that a lot of us would look at 6ers as a bounce-back play so thought I would add my thoughts after reading your post.

On a personal note, I am in San Antonio for the NCAA Finals and watched the game last night. The Spurs did not cover (I had the Cavs because of SAS upcoming match with best in west) and the game went to my expectation with SAS pulling all major players and left final 6-7 minutes to mop-up (thank goodness). The reason I add this is to let folks know that James will be great but he is still a baby. He got so much exposure after the draft that folks forget that he is really a baby. He will be a multiple MVP winner within a couple of years. That said, stay away from playing cavs against less than powerhouse teams that can play some defense.

Good chatting with you and keep playing those unders it is "FREE MONEY".

 

[Nolan Dalla]

NOLAN: Bill made several great points, and I'd like to respond:


Nolan, I have followed your writings very regularly and have a lot of respect for your capping skills and your writing ability. You once made a state to me in an email a couple of years ago, that one should never bet on the improbable: I think the 6ers are an improbable for the following reasons.

***Oh damn, my own words are coming back to haunt me.


1. They really are in a state of disarray.

***Agree, which is why they will be getting some extra value tonight. For some reason, even bad teams in dissarray tend to tough it up at home -- especially versus suspect competition. I've heard this refered to as a "bunker" mentality. If this was in the road, I wouldn't touch this game with a peso.


2. Though most teams (I think in excess of 70%) bounce back to cover after a SU loss of 20+ points within 2 games of the defeat.

***I ran the numbers on this some time ago, using complete data from 2002-2003. I looked for numbers on teams folliwng a 10-14 loss, a 15-19 loss, a 20-24 loss, and a 25+ loss. I was hoping to develop a stronger correaltion for the LOPSIDEDNESS OF THE PREVIOUS DEFEAT to next game performacne. Unforatunately, the data I used showed nothing of consequence. Perhaps if you use a two game window, the team does cover 70 percent within those two games. I believe you on that. Here I am arguing against myself.


3. The significant exception to point two is when a team is defeated SU by by more than 30 points they lose ATS the next game (do not have numbers but IE may).

***Interesting.


4. GS sees this as a game to continue making a statement of their improved conpetitiveness by beating a team it has handles 4 of last five meetings.

***Decent point. But Mucleman is probbly gone at the end of the season (corect me if I'm wrong on this), and this is the same team that lost 9 straight during its most recent road trip. I also offer some anecdotal evidence. I watched in horror as the Warriors lost a dismal game to the Bull in Chicago a few weeks ago. Richardson missed something like his last 12 shots in the game, including two free throws (I had GS, which is why I remember so clearly) When you see a game like that you can pick up things about a team and its confidence. This Warriors team plays like a playoff team at home (with swagger an all) but when they hit the road, they fall apart. I think this outweighs your arguement, but I respect the points you made.


5. GS crashes boards and 6ers have no inside game to contest and not breakout backcourt to take advantage of GS's defensive lapses.

***Good point. My argument is not about talent disparity (GS is the better team), but rather motivation. I think the NBA proives that motivation wins games -- just look at what the Kings have been doing with all that talent, getting their asses kicked in the last week or so. Miami is another tema that has little talent, but gets the job done at home. I really think the home crowd is stronger inthe NBA than any other sport so I tend to weigh it more into my handicapping. But, you are right about GS being the better team.


I seldomly post but check this board for thoughts. I felt that a lot of us would look at 6ers as a bounce-back play so thought I would add my thoughts after reading your post.

***I'm glad you did. Interesting discussion --just what the Forums is supposed to be about.


On a personal note, I am in San Antonio for the NCAA Finals and watched the game last night. The Spurs did not cover (I had the Cavs because of SAS upcoming match with best in west) and the game went to my expectation with SAS pulling all major players and left final 6-7 minutes to mop-up (thank goodness). The reason I add this is to let folks know that James will be great but he is still a baby. He got so much exposure after the draft that folks forget that he is really a baby. He will be a multiple MVP winner within a couple of years. That said, stay away from playing cavs against less than powerhouse teams that can play some defense.

***Great point. I don't mean to diss on James, but the Cavs are a better team just as much, if not more so because of the improvement of Ilgauskas -- he shoots 49 percent from the field to James' 41 percent. He plays 8 minutes less per game but still averages 16 PPG to James 20. Ilguaskas even soots 40 percent from beyond the arc -- to 29 percent for James. he also posts more OFF and DEF rebounds per game. But ESPN goes ape shit every time James gets a basket. Ilguaskas is the real presense on the Cavs team, and with the emergence of James they should be a playoff team next season. however, this team is still a whoping NINE games under .500 in a miserbale conference, so even this team's positives are exagerated.


Good chatting with you and keep playing those unders it is "FREE MONEY

***Thanks -- same to you



ND

 

[yyz]

GAMBLER'S CREED:

#3

"Never ask a bad team to do you a favor........"

 

[chump]

great call (so far) if they blow this 26 point lead, i'll retire...

 

[Bill]

Just came in and checked the score. That's why they call it gambling: no matter the logic, we are not in control.

Great having an exchange with you. Obviously the outcome is why YOU ARE DA'MAN and I am..... well, I am ... just

Bill

PS still glad I did not play 6ers. Just would not feel right.

Also, I know someone on this board must have the % of bouncebacks after 20-30 point loss. I did the numbers about two years ago for every team for two seasons and found them staggering. It was very lopsided and I believe the 70% bounce back within two games was correct. I also recall 30+SU win/loss were probable covers/not the next night.

I will save the data to spread sheet and run the count again during one of these disgusting five hour flights.

Maybe during next week after NCAA finals. Should be fun.

Best wishes.

Bill

 

[Bill]

By-the-way, are you still with that pretty lady or did she kick you to the curb yet?

 

[homedog]

Good call

 

[THE KOD]

Nolan

Nice call

KOD

 

[Bill]

In this case we had two bad teams ans the saying holds doubley true!!

Bill

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Thanks Bill. Sixers got the money, but it's just one game. You know I've blown a lot of games over the years too. this one just jumped out at me, and it was nice to get the easy win.

By pretty lady, I assume you mean Marieta. We've been married 13 years -- with some ups and downs. But things are going great, especially since we relocated to LV.

I look forward to any data you post on teams after a big loss -- although you may want to hold onto it until the first of next season -- only two weeks to go until NBA is over.

Best Regards,

Nolan Dalla

 

[Bill]

Nolan, I do mean Marieta. Good to hear things are working out. I think we all know about ups and downs. LV is too damn hot (so is San Antonio but I do not live here...yet!)

I know the rest of the NBA season is in the tank. I often wonder if there is a system that looks at meaningless games being played played between the playoff locked-in vs locked out. I know some games for position within the 'ins" are important. Have not looked at that.

Gotta go. It will soon be MLB season and the dogs are about to break out of there cages...hell there may even be a Tiger among the dogs this year.

I know this is not the right board but, one last question. Has a taut EVER had a day he did not have a GOY, or 100,000$$ GOM, Absolute lock or the next day is free? I have a fried who called one of these guys and they called him back for a year. Last I heard they were trying to keep sharp objects out of his reach!

Good day.

Bill

 

[Doc Holiday 12]

Nolan

Nolan

GREAT call.....................Doc.

 

[gsp]

Good call Nolan. I really missed it on this game.