golden state vs. cleveland........

[gman2]

with the cavaliers coming off a straight up win - something that happens about once a month - the "over system" would be in effect for tonights game against the warriors.

cavaliers in their next game following a straight up win:
10 overs
2 unders

to take this one a little further- those 2 games that DID go under were road games earlier in the season. tonights game is at home

basically, the cavs defy all logic- and this trend more or less shows how they are a young team that just doesnt know how to respond to success. their next outing following a win is always a track meet and they just dont play defense at all. the number tonight certainly isnt cheap at the current 212.5, but the cavs have shown me that sometimes- be it a spread or total, the linesmaker just cant set the line high enough.

as far as recent months go- the cavs have allowed these point totals after their last 5 wins:

114
118
107
113
118

as almost an obligatory play- tried this one for one unit:

cavs/warriors 1st half over 108

NOTE: heres something worth noting for those playing the spread in this game. of course roster turnover has to be accounted for and obviously both teams are going in different directions- but its worth noting that golden state is laying 7 points of chalk in a building theyve NEVER won in. warriors are 0-8 all time in gund arena, and last beat the cavs when they were playing in richfield. that being said, cavs havent won back to back games even once this season. so take those numbers for what theyre worth. just trying to offer some interesting info.


gl tonight guys

 

[Kade]

good stuff gman.
Thanks

 

[Innavation]

played the over at 211----Golden St. Loves to run and score pts. Cavs play no d at all---Look for a 112-108 score today.

 

[gman2]

also- for those who are looking for a subplot to the game- theres been a lot said (by cavs players) and a lot written (by the media) about how the cavs are going to respond to what richardson did to boozer in the rookie game. basically, as a team thats 13-and-whatever (which is what the cavs are right now), you look for any motivation you can find. a few cavs players said there would be some type of retribution- whether it be planting richardson on his a$$ the first time he comes down the lane or whatever. cavs dont have a damn thing to play for (except lebron james), but its gonna be an interesting game to watch. ricky davis will likely check richardson, and davis was one of the cavs who immediately came to boozers defense and publicly criticized richardson for the bush league play. and since davis has a reputation for getting into it with his opponent this year (vs quentin richardson of the clips twice this year, vs gary payton earlier this year), the intensity for a meaningless game (from the cavs standpoint) should be there

 

[Hindsite]

I agree... also played the over.... I know GS is good for 110... Just hope the Cavs show up....

 

[taker02000]

If someone came to the aid of Boozer, it should not be that thug Ricky Davis!! Shooting at the wrong basket in order to get a triple double is the craziest thing I've seen in a long time!! Someone may plant Davis on his a$$ before the season is over!!

 

[MasterTX]

Not trying to be a punk, but doesn't this over just seem too easy to you guys?

211 is averaging 53 pts a quarter, that is WELL above the league average, and also for both these teams.

Yes, I agree that neither of these teams have a strong defense, but all that has to happen is one bad quarter and the over will be hard to get. I have been all over a few boards and not one person likes the Under in this one.

Public perception for EVERY Golden State game lately has been OVER OVER OVER. Likewise for Cleveland. I think Golden State can surely put up their end of this offensively, but Z is going to be banged around and Cle will struggle to get 100+ (which I think it will take). If the shots aren't falling, 211 will be a hard number to reach. Just my take

 

[gman2]

taker:

in a roundabout way- that was my point.

davis already is volatile and has a reputation for getting into it with other players.

so i think that increases the liklihood that something might occur.
davis is a timebomb. damn good player- but a headcase sometimes and always seems to be in the middle of sh1t.

i can add davis' skirmish with artest earlier this year as well to the list above.

 

[gman2]

mastertx:

excellent post.

i gotta be honest. i have not bet ANY game over the total in the nba this ENTIRE year other than the times when this cavaliers trend comes up.

and youre right on the money about the bad quarter part. thats what i meant when i said the line isnt cheap at 212.5

like you said, all it takes is a 21 or 22 point quarter by a team to really fu/ck up the total.

and i also wont dispute that golden state is a popular over team.

me personally- im just making a small obligatory play based on the system and from watching more than my fair share of cavs games this year (not proud to say that, lol)

i also feel that the over 108 might be a better play than the entire game because the 4th quarter is what kills overs sometimes. if the game is real close, the teams work shotclock and value possessions. if the game is a complete blowout, the teams dont get up and down the court as much (i dont believe in garbage time in the pros like i do in college)

if this game doesnt hit the 1h over, it may not hit the game over.

jmo.

 

[MasterTX]

You cheer for the Bucks, I will cheer for this over...great work gman, if only we had a guy like you for every team.

 

[taker02000]

One other thing to look at in this game is that Golden State has not beaten Cleveland on the road since 1990!! Pretty unbelievable, but it is a fact!!

 

[Pretender]

Thanks G MAN GL

 

[THE KOD]

good info here gman


Scott King of Dogs

 

[jpzink]

Guys,

64 points in the first quarter,... not good,.... for the only guy picking the under. Cleveland, quit scoring, already.

 

[jpzink]

I DON'T HAVE A CHANCE

119 AT HALF!!!

 

[cavy1]

Hey G man
Nice call on 1 st half.

What do you think of the 2nd half 106 over ???

cavy 1

 

[Woizeee]

Took the 1st half over and won oh so easily.. great call Gman.. these guys are going to score 200 each lol.. they each got 80 already with 3 mins left in the 3rd!! Ah and a intentional flagrant foul just called on D miles on none other than J richardson...

 

[gman2]

cavy:

sorry i couldnt respond to your post. ended up actually going to the game live to root on my over, lol. game was one of the more exciting games ive seen (as a cavs fan, not many have been exciting, lol) but the pace of the game was absolutely absurd. great game to watch. hope you cashed some money on the over