Good info I thought I'd share

[Jord20]

WHY BETTING UNDERDOGS IN BASEBALL IS DIFFERENT FROM ANY OTHER SPORT.

There are several different approaches and strategies to handicapping baseball, but the most fundamental and obvious starting point is one that is taken completely for granted. Baseball is quite unique when it comes to betting because the gaps between the best and worst teams are far closer than in any other sport. Let's look at the other major betting sports.

In the NFL this season, Atlanta and Denver were 13-3 winning 81.25% of their games while the worst teams were Kansas City and Jacksonville at 2-14, winning just 12.25% of the time.

In the NBA this season, Miami is currently 56-14, winning 80% of their games while the worst team in the NBA is the Charlotte Bobcats at 17-54, winning 23.9% of the time.

In NCAA Basketball this season, Gonzaga was 32-3 this season with a 91.4% winning percentage. The ?Board? team with the worst record in the country was Northern Illinois at 5-25, winning 16.67% of the time.

In NCAA Football, Ohio State finished undefeated at 12-0 (100%) while Southern Mississippi finished 0-12 (0%).

Meanwhile, the 2012 baseball season was not that much different than any other baseball season. The Washington Nationals had the best record in the majors last season at 98-64 (60.5%) while the worst team in the majors was the Houston Astros at 55-107 (34%). These records are nowhere close to the best and worst records of any other major betting sport.

So there you have it:

Sport Best Worst
NFL 81.25% 12.25%
NBA 80.00% 23.90%
NCAAB 91.40% 16.67%
NCAAF 100.0% 0.00%
MLB 60.5% 34.00%

While it seems like an obvious point, it is often overlooked that the worst team in baseball still wins at a percentage well in excess of the worst team in any sport. Taking it a step further, based on last season's numbers, the worst team in baseball won better than 1 out of 3 games, which means on average, they will still win at least one game every series. Let's face it, in NCAAB, if you put Indiana up against Grambling 100 times this season, Indiana would probably win 100% of the time. In the NFL, if the Patriots or Denver played the Jaguars 10 times, they'd probably win at least 9. In the NBA, if the Heat played the Bobcats 100 times, they?d probably win close to 90% of the time. In college football, if Ohio State or Alabama faced Southern Mississippi 100 times, they would win at least 90% of the time. It's nothing like that in baseball.

In 2012, the worst team in the majors, the Houston Astros beat the best team in their division, the St. Louis Cardinals two out of three in May and also took 2 of 2 from Milwaukee and in September, beat Philadelphia 3 of 4 and Cincinnati and Milwaukee 2 of 3. The Cubs lost 101 games but twice beat St. Louis 2 out of 3 and beat Pittsburgh 7 of 9 in the 2nd half of the season. The World Champion, San Francisco Giants were swept in series last year by Miami, Arizona and the Dodgers and lost 3 of 4 to the Mets. Anyone can beat anyone in baseball!

 

[Jord20]

The point can also be further highlighted by looking at starting pitchers. Let say we?re back in March 2012 and I gave you the choice of Groups A or B below and told you that you had to bet one unit on each pitcher in each start for the 2012 season in the group you choose.



GROUP A:
Dan Haren
Jon Lester
Cliff Lee
Tim Lincecum
Anibal Sanchez
Jake Peavy
Adam Wainwright
Jeremy Hellickson
Felix Hernandez
Doug Fister



GROUP B:
Barry Zito
W. Chen
Ryan Vogelsong
Tommy Milone
Eric Stults
H. Iwokuma
Jeff Francis
Chris Tillman
Jason Hammel
Jeremy Guthrie

Almost all people before last season would?ve chosen Group A for sure. In fact, if I asked many people today (in March 2013) to choose Group A or B as the better investment last season (after the fact), I still think many people would choose Group A.


Let?s look at the results:


GROUP A
Team Record Profitability 1 unit/gm

Dan Haren 12-18 -9.30 units
Jon Lester 13-20 -9.28 units
Cliff Lee 12-18 -8.80 units
Tim Lincecum 14-20 -8.57 units
Anibal Sanchez 14-20 -8.49 units
Jake Peavy 15-17 -4.96 units
Adam Wainwright 18-17 -4.36 units
Jeremy Hellickson 14-17 -3.81 units
Felix Hernandez 16-17 -3.15 units
Doug Fister 15-14 -2.90 units

Total 143-178 (44.54%) -63.62 units

GROUP B

Team Record Profitability 1 unit/gm

Barry Zito 24-11 +16.68 units
Wei-Yin Chen 20-13 +10.15 units
Ryan Vogelsong 23-12 +9.86 units
Tommy Milone 20-12 +8.09 units
Eric Stultz 10-5 +8.02 units
Hisashi Iwakuma 10-6 +7.20 units
Jeff Francis 13-11 +6.79 units
Chris Tillman 10-5 +6.20 units
Jason Hammel 13-9 +5.84 units
Jeremy Guthrie 16-13 +5.76 units

Total 159-97 (62.1%) +84.59 units

 

[Jord20]

If you chose Group A, you cost yourself 148.21 units and at $100 per unit, you just lost $14,821. At $1,000 per unit, you may consider filing for bankruptcy after losing $148,210.



To put things into perspective, try and think about the potential biggest one game baseball mismatch for this upcoming season. How about the Astros with their 5th starter at Detroit with Justin Verlander on the mound? I make the line between -270 to -350 but for arguments sake, I will go with -350. How big of a mismatch is it really? We see some really big mismatches in other sports. In the first round of the NCAA tournament, Louisville was -26 against North Carolina A&T. I doubt there was a money line on it but it might have been close to -10,000. In CFB, Alabama would be close to a 45 point favorite over say Florida Atlantic, which would easily be -10,000 on the moneyline if you could find such a line. The Patriots would be approximately17 point favorites at home against the Jaguars which would give a moneyline around -2000. So is the biggest mismatch of the baseball season really that much of a mismatch when you compare it to other sports? This past Saturday (March 23, 2013), Wichita State upset Gonzaga as a 7 point dog. The moneyline was approximately -380. That victory by Wichita State was a greater upset (and really wasn?t that shocking) than any upset you will see in the major leagues this season.

To sum it up, too many baseball bettors shy away from dogs like they can't win when it is clear that any given underdog can beat any favorite on any given day at a rate unlike every other sport. Until people get comfortable in baseball playing underdogs on a regular basis and seeking out value, there is no chance to win betting baseball in the long run.

 

[Jord20]

WINNING PERCENTAGE IS NOT SO IMPORTANT IN BASEBALL HANDICAPPING.

Too many people get caught up in what a handicapper's winning percentage is in baseball and to me that just further explains to me that people do not understand betting baseball, as successful baseball handicapping is not a function of winning percentage. I would go so far as to say that if any average baseball handicapper had a gun to his head and was asked to hit 60% over the course of the season, he probably could. Simply, if a baseball bettor took every favorite of -200 or greater, he would probably hit 60%. The problem is even if you played all favorites with the average bet being a favorite of -200, at 60%, over the course of 100 plays at $100 each, you would lose $2000. At an average of -200, a handicapper would need to hit 67% to even show a negligible profit. Don't forget, the best team in baseball last season only hit at a 60.5% clip.

Taken a step further, a handicapper playing an average of -150 could hit 60%, but at 60% (about equal to the best team in baseball) he would only breakeven.

Conversely, a handicapper playing an average of +110 would only need to hit at a rate of 47.7% to breakeven. So I ask you, who is the better baseball handicapper, the 60% capper playing an average of -150 or the 48% capper playing at an average of +110? Obviously, the answer is the 48% capper as he shows a profit while the 60% capper above breakeven. The point I am driving home is winning percentage in baseball is less significant than other factors.

For those of you who followed me at , you are aware I play more games than almost any other handicapper. Lord knows there were countless haters who would state that I played too many games and couldn't be successful. I respect they are entitled to their opinion, but based upon my baseball model, in 2007, I won +0.12 units per game played, so my overall profit increased by an average of 0.12 units with each game I played. That is not to say I should bet every game, but based upon my handicapping techniques, the more games that fit my personal criteria, the more profitable I was.

I played 1,172 games in 2007 and finished with a record of 626-546 (53.4%) and made a profit of +140.86 units. Let's say this season I play 1000 games at an average of +110 (slightly higher than last year). Here is what I can expect if you assume that I flat bet every game at the same amount:

Win % Unit Profit
47.7% Even
48% +8 units
49% +29 units
50% +50 units
51% +71 units
52% +92 units
53% +113 units
54% +134 units

I won't use anything above a 54% winning percentage because it just won't happen. In 2007, I hit over 53.4% and as such, had an outstanding season. Even if I don't reach that standard, at 50%, I will still make a handsome profit.

 

[Jord20]

REDUCED JUICE BOOKS ARE IMPORTANT TO USE.

It is scary to think that some baseball bettors actually play through books that offer 20 cent lines. Simply put, that is suicide. Here is a comparison of what I would expect if I averaged +110 for the season at a reduced shop like (which is now unavailable to US players), compared to a 10 cent line which would cost me five cents per play overall (meaning I would average +105, thus the +105 column below), compared to a 20 cent line which would cost me 10 cents per play on average (meaning I would average +100, thus the +100 column below):



Win % +110 +105 +100
47.7 Even -22.15u -46u
48% +8 units -16u -40u
49% +29 units +4.5u -20u
50% +50 units +25u EVEN
51% +71 units +45.5u +20u
52% +92 units +66u +40u
53% +113 units +86.5u +60u
54% +134 units +107u +80u

By using a reduced shop like compared to 10 cent and 20 cent shops, if I hit 50%, I earn 50 units on the season in my example, but at the 10 cent store, I would earn 25 units and at the 20 cent store, I would breakeven. These are HUGE differences. I reviewed my numbers from 2007 and had I used a reduced juice book like Matchbook and averaged a savings of 5 cents per game (that is conservative as it is closer to 8% if you are a good shopper) then I would've earned an additional 39 units that season. Unfortunately, is no longer available and finding anything better than a dime line is near impossible, but if you are playing a twenty cent line, you have no shot to win!

 

[Jord20]

HANDICAPPING GAMES.

The key to handicapping baseball is searching for value in relation to the line. It?s very similar to a horse race. Let say I give you a racing form for a 10 horse race today at Belmont Park and the only thing I delete from the racing form is the odds of each horse. After evaluating all ten horses, you will have a perception in your mind of which horse you think has the best chance to win and you will probably be able to rate the horses in your mind from most likely to least likely to win the race. Let?s say you like the #1 horse the best, the #2 horse second best and the #3 horse third best. Does this mean you should bet the #1 horse? ABSOLUTELY NOT! You need to evaluate your perceptions in relation to the betting line. Now let?s fill in the final factor in my fictitious horse race. The odds on the #1 horse is even money, the odds on the #2 horse is 2-1 and the odds on the #3 horse is 20-1. Now there?s no doubt that the #1 horse is the most likely to win the race, however in this analysis, you would be a fool to not bet the #3 horse. Based upon these odds, the #1 horse would have to win this race one out of every two times for you to breakeven. The #2 horse would have to win the race one out of every three times for you to breakeven while the #3 horse would only need to win the race one out of 21 times for you to breakeven. In my example, if you believe the #3 horse is the 3rd best horse in the race, then the horse you should bet on in this example is the #3 at 20-1 odds even though you feel the #1 is the most likely to win the race.

Similarly, a bet in baseball should not necessarily be a bet on who you think will win, but rather who you think will outperform the odds and provides the best value. The most common error I see in many baseball bettors is they first choose who they think will win rather than evaluating the line. How often have we all heard someone say something along the lines of, ?I love the Tigers tomorrow with Verlander and I am going to make a huge bet on them? before a line is even posted? What I am trying to state here is that there is no way to love any team until you know what the line is.

Take for example opening day with the Yankees hosting the Red Sox. It will probably be CC Sabathia against Jon Lester. There is no way to say which team I like at this point because I don?t know the line. Depending on the line, I could invest in the Yankees in certain circumstances or the Red Sox in others so it is clear my wager is not based upon who I think will necessarily win the game, but rather who based upon my handicapping, provides the best value. Said in a different way, I am shooting to determine which team I think linemakers and the general public are undervaluing based upon my techniques of handicapping. If the Yankees open up at EVEN in that game, I very well could play the Yankees. If the Yankees open up at -140, I could very well invest in the Red Sox. The line should determine who you bet and not your opinion on a team with no consideration of the line.

I like to think of each game I handicap as based upon my research and understanding of a particular line, if the two teams in question played 100 times under the same fact pattern, how many time (what %) do I think in my mind each team would win, particularly, how many time will the underdog win. Here are the win percentages that an underdog would need to win in order to breakeven at a particular underdog line:

%Win Breakeven Line
50% Even
48% +109
46% +118
44% +127
42% +138
40% +150
38% +163
36% +178
34% +194
32% +212

I highlighted the 36% and 34% marks, because that is the line where a team in this situation would have to perform at the level of the worst team in major leagues over the course of the season. When I break down each game, if I feel a team will perform better than the line, then it is worth an investment. For example, if on opening day, I believe the Red Sox have a 48% chance of winning in my mind, if I can get reasonable value better than +109 (say, maybe +119 or higher then I am buying. Set in non-arithmetic terms, if I think there are factors that linemakers and typical gamblers are not factoring into the line of a particular game that I think are relevant to one side, it will often mean I believe that team will outperform the line and I will invest in them.

I have read a lot of gibberish that write-ups are tripe and just ways a poster tries to convince a reader on why to play a certain side. I view it differently. When I write games up, the write-ups were basically the relevant statistics which I saw as reasons why the side I was supporting was undervalued with respect to the line. It's not necessarily the reasons why one team will win the game, but analytical reasons why I believed the team I was betting provided better value than was seen by linemakers and the general public.

 

[green2240]

Good info Jord

So time to hammer the twinkies, line dropping

 

[elmer fudd]

good info:0corn

 

[Jord20]

Good info Jord

So time to hammer the twinkies, line dropping

:toast:

haha, already did!

 

[Scrapman]

NICE INFO now go to my thread even if not betting using my simple system for betting bases which coincides with this thread
post your plays even if not wagering!

1/2 or 1/4 on all favorites no higher than -160 full or double on any dog

 

[canuckfan77]

Good read, thanks :toast:

 

[dms79]

In baseball, -105 shouldn't even be viewed as "reduced vig," it should just be standard.

 

[capping-guru]

Great stuff man!!

 

[yanno]

Real sharps do not bet teams or sides. They bet the lines. You are absolutely correct. :0008

The biggest fallacy is saying that the juice does not matter, as long as you win. The fact is that you are going to lose close to 50% of the time, hopefully a bit less. So the juice is the difference in whether you will be a winner or loser.

Excellent stuff!!! Hopefully some people will listen and learn. They will be the winners.

 

[JIMMYBOY]

Thanks for the info you are absolutely right :0008 :0008

 

[Jord20]

Just to be clear guys, these are not my write-ups.


I thought it was great info and agreed with it, so I shared.

Lets have a great season. Cheers