GOP LOCKS

[The Big Tease]

Don,

I am literally laughing my ass off here......LOL

Can you care to explain your "handicapping" on this?:mj07: :mj07: :mj07:

You cant just come onto a public forum and call for one of the worst teams of the modern era to beat the #1 team in the nation and then just say "because I said so, you heard it here first"

LMFAO:142smilie :142smilie

 

[Dice34]

wow, I guess you did get excited for this one... they may throw an unexpected scare into them.....but upset? lets just pull for the cover

 

[Don Wallace]

Dice, its a win win situation! You can scream upset and people will think your a mad genious for nailing the unfathomable. If they end up just covering, so be it. Players will be just as happy and forget the outrageous claim because they cashed. I had ARI +14 vs CHI acouple Mon nites ago and stated on the forum that I didnt understand why everyone is loading up on the Bears, I said I thought ARI wins this outright! I almost got laughed off the forum. At half time when it was 20-3 with ARI in front, I was like holly s%%t, this is on the verge of really happening. After the game no one called me to the carpet on the call...........ARI backers were too busy counting the money, CHI backers were too pissed to post.....HA, HA.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Don, that's a ballsy call on the Illini. Hell, try the moneyline. It's massive!

Watched the Illini-Wisconsin game last week, and Illinois played real well. Maybe should have won. They have some quick linebackers. The young QB is progressing. Just missed a wide-open TD pass up the middle.

Hell, could happen. Props on taking a stance. Hope you have a profitable week.

 

[ctownguy]

Adding Illinois +27 over Ohio St..............Im on the record, Im calling for an OUTRIGHT UPSET! The Buckeyes go down this week. You heard it here first.

ROFLMFAO

Please no disrespect intended here, Don. but if you are really serious about this, I want to bet you 5 grand SU.

I mean to just throw that out off the wall is really ridiculous considering you seem to be a serious handicapper here which I read and monitor very closely.

Hope you were drinking when you made this ridiculous off the wall prediction. If not lets get our money to an escrow co to hold.

5 grand is just a starting point, you name the amount :142smilie :142smilie :mj07: :scared

 

[Don Wallace]

Dude, I was just playing. If I was going to bet this straight up I would take the money line and get a million to one odds. Seriously though, I dont believe this is going a classic 45-0 walk in the park for the buckeyes. This Illinois team will compete for awhile before Ohio St. slams the door shut. I was troubleshooting some numbers last night and in the last 10 years in the big 10 there was 12 instances where a big 10 team was a homedog of +24 or more in conference play and they have gone a sparkling 11-1ATS. Vegas is not going to continue to let the public cash on this buckeye squad, theres real value here. As far as a potential upset, there no evidence that comes close to supporting that theory, but Ive been around this game for a long time now and when the unthinkable happens, it generally occurs in spots like these. DD homedog in conference play that has absolutely no shot of winning and going into the 4th quarter you look at the scoreboard and cant believe whats transpiring. Look at UT at TX Tech last week. I realize that is a apple to oranges comparison concerning these two contest, but it happens. This Illinois team is starting to compete. What about ARI +14 vs CHI ? Who saw that coming? In my time Ive seen teams as formidible as Ohio St. get beat outright as -24 and -28 point favorites. Penn St. vs Akron and Florida St. vs NC St. come to mind. But that was back in the 90s. Let me be abundantly clear on this point though, Im not wagering on Illinois because theres any information that suggest they win this game SU. If they get blasted 55-0 I wouldnt fall out my chair. Im making this play because I see value and I believe the line will catch up with the buckeyes sooner than later. +27 on the road in the big 10 is ridiculous. Dude, when your a dog player, its essential that you develope that Buster Douglas mentality. Now I know I missed you on that one, that was a blast from the late 80s. Nonetheless, if it doesnt happen here it will happen when Michigan arrives at the Horseshoe. Believe me, I will be all over that play..........you heard it here first.

 

[DRHARDFOUR]

thanks for hard work and opinion -----------------

just an interested observer:sadwave:

 

[ctownguy]

Don,

Just playing with you also. I read all your opinions every week. It gives me a great look at your specialty, the dog side and it looks like you are good at this perspective.

I'm still laughing at the Buster Douglas reference, "dude". I'm probably 10-15 yrs older than you and yes I remember all your references very very well.

You forgot the one with Bo's 1st year at Michigan going into the horseshoe and handing Woody and by beloved Bucks their lunch and cost them the NC, but I digress.

I know EXACTLY what you are talking about giving the long shot a crack and yes when they do hit with all that value it can be a very good payday for the little you have to put out.

Keep up the good work and glad you understood I was just playing you on the bet offer.

 

[The Big Tease]

Yea, Arizona was not a popular pick, but here is the difference.......the talent difference in college is WAAAAY MORE than it is in the pros. The NFL is the highest of the high in terms of talent.....any team on any given day can win. Not true in football. Illinois simply doesnt have the talent to compete.

They could cover the spread....not doubting that. But an outright victory.....I think you were looking for attention on that one

 

[Don Wallace]

Incredible, that was not the point I was trying to drive home, but what are you going to do. I understand the indifference in talent in the NFL opposed to the NCAA. I understand the frequency of upsets are much more apt to occur at the professional level. Arizona was a +14 homedog on MNF, are you kidding, I cant recall at any time in my 30+ years of watching the NFL a team being a +14 home dog on MNF. In the betting publics mind ARI had virtually no chance of winnig.....none. Buster Douglas was a 42-1 underdog to Mike Tyson, most books in Vegas werent even taking action on the fight and he knock Tyson out to win the WBC title. NC St. as a +28 pt dog beat FL St. in I believe 98 to knock them from National title contention. I could go on and on, but my point is these things can and do happen. The probabilities of Illinois beating the Buckeyes is no different than the other examples Ive denoted above. Again, at the college level, this is the spot were upsets have a viable chance of happening. Huge conference homedog that the Giant isnt really paying attention to. Not saying this is really going to happen, theres nothing to suggest it will, but they do and can happen. Now all this thinking is wearing me out. Ive been on the wagon for 3 days and suddenly life isnt that much fun. Gotta go mix a stiff one and contemplate the future.

 

[ZMAN]

Don, take a look at s.fla.+5. better rush off. and better rush def. catching 5 as home dog. looks like outright winner. your thoughts?

 

[Don Wallace]

Honestly I dont know much about S FLA. 90% of my handicapping is in the BCS conferences. Nonetheless, Fresno St. +23 is worth a look. Fresno has always hung around big numbers like this. The line open at +26, it wasnt public money that drove the line down. Nothing I want to get involved with, but worth a look for entertainment purposes.

 

[tulah]

Hey Don
S.Florida is in the Big East conference...They are still a BCS conference.

I like the plays this week
I'm on OU but they are the chalk.I wish I'd of gotten them as a dog. I'm on the under 49 also.
I got Ill+27

GL

 

[Don Wallace]

Your right, I saw that today while looking through Phil Steeles College Preview publication. Better stated, I concentrate specifically on more traditional powerhouse programs. In the Big East the only teams I focus on are Pittsburg and Louisville. Initially I jumped on OK +3, than the line moved overnight to OK -3. I bought back the other side to play for a middle. Concerning South Florida, I no nothing about this team. Their not in my database of play on teams. I focus only on the teams that I plan to play. Thats how cappers get caught up chasing when they dont set specific parameters for themselves. I could look at the board any one week and could make a case for 10 to 11 sides. I try not to get too caught up in anything else other than what Im doing.

 

[Don Wallace]

Currently 22-17 ATS, just booked Louisville +1 at Bodogs

 

[Don Wallace]

Currently 23-17 ATS STD. I had to by back afew bets and move to other books to get better numbers but here are my plays for Saturday...........KAN ST +4 over COL......MIA +3 over V-TECH.........MARY +20.5 over CLEM.......COL ST. +16.5 over BYU...........and my upset special of the week ILL +27 over OHIO ST. I always look at the Service post to see who the touts like and Im on the opposite side of all of them. The only one thats worth a f##k is ole Phil Steele, but approach with caution. Interesrtingly enough, 42% of the money is on Illinois. Im glad I tag that game before anyone else saw it.......thanks DICE34.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

I always look at the Service post to see who the touts like and Im on the opposite side of all of them. The only one thats worth a f##k is ole Phil Steele, but approach with caution.

I whole heartedly agree with you on the Phil Steele comment. He's the only one that I consider credible, even though he's a stat lover, he's not afraid to play on unloved dogs.

The Big Tease: Chill out Buckeye-boy. I know it's the only thing that people here in Columbus have, but lighten up. If you honestly thought DW was serious, God help you.

DW: Couple things.
1) I remember reading a story about Tressel TRYING to cover the spread for the alumni. I think the Cincinatti comeback was used as the basis (4th down conversion in own territory). Just a heads up, for what its worth. Could be complete BS, but you never know.
2) The Oklahoma game now has OKL as the favorite. Knowing you buy-back a lot of plays, I was wondering if you take this as a good value -OR- if you get scared and buy it back.

As always, good luck this weekend.

 

[BASON]

Don, I go away for a few days and this thread goes crazy. Well my prediction was wrong West Va did go to a favorite, but it saved me a lot of money since I bought it back and played L-Ville. I told you it would change if they went to a favorite (my local had West Va -2 believe it or not) That game was a classic example of my capping style. The line movement played right into my hands. Congrats for playing L-ville.

The MD game is shaping up the same way. I was luke warm on the play, but the line movement is making MD stronger and stronger. If I get 21 this will be a very large play.

Love the call on Illinois, if they actually win I will send you something nice, but I think I am safe. That line is coming down though and will likely not be a play for me.

OK is still looking really good to me especially now that everyone is on A&M. I love the contrarian plays. However, I will try to stick to dog plays in your thread since I am well aware of your hatred of favorites.

Where did K St come from?

 

[Don Wallace]

GMROZ22, whats is up! Alot regulars deluged my thread with hatred for that one HA, HA. I do believe Illinois is going to compete in this one for awhile though. +27 is very generous. The line has drop to 24. Alot of people are coming in on this one. The Oklahoma/TX A&M play did scare me a bit. In one night OK went from +3 to -3. I got alittle scared and bought back the other side and played for a 6pt middle. Do you bet the NBA? I unleashed 3 big plays for the night. I always make far more money in hoops than I do in football.

 

[Don Wallace]

Bason, yeah Louisville was a last minute play for me. Actually, they went to a -2pt fav in many books in Vegas. Living so close to WV I can see how your local would have that kind of deal available. The Maryland line continues to rise I think youll find the +21 somewhere. I love the Terps this week! Clemson does not scare me. Forget that G-Tech game, they will go as R Ball plays and he sucks most of the time. Maryland will continue to run the ball and execute enough to compete. After Clemsons 2nd loss and being out the National Championship picture you gotta wonder how motivated they are. Theres no way they get a Jan 1st bowl. Got Illinois +27 and really like this play alot. Bookmakers are not going to let the public continue to cash here, the line will invariably catch up to them and it begins this week. Kan St. is a team I like to play as a conference dog, I think their a shell of themselves, but they are improving. Next year I will really be big on this team.......Virginia too. In college football this has been a down year for me. Im +18 to +24 games over 500 at this point of the season most years. If I can put together a 4-1 or 5-0 week and close the season at 60% I may just lay it down and focus on the NFL and hoops. Check my NBA thread out, I got 3 fat plays tonight.