Dallas,Charl,Spurs,Cavs over.Really think Charl wins outright.These may become plays but I do nothing till I have fade guy plays or see something good from HH!!!!
Got my eye on
- Thread starter eeeerock
- Start date
Very possible,they usually don't play as good vs the teams they should beat.Minnesota big (Pekovic)I believe should be a headache for us as we don't have a big that can body up with him.Will look for a prop on him if available,especially rebounds.Zeller just doesn't have the body to bang with him.Speights should see more time if I was coach, vs him atleast.Not on the side but will be on the over as it is over 12 pts of what they avg and this little statistic has been a good play in the past,it just misssed on Sat by a basket though.Like where the total is sitting.
Prop is 9- rebs -115 Should hit with ease
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- Mar 2, 2006
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I'm passing on the card tonight, but I'll share what I found on those games. Initially liked the Pacers after watching Brooklyn last night - they look completely dysfunctional, only managing 29 points in the second half last night, but Deron Williams is out, and we all know how teams pull together when a key player goes out. Also, Pacers have not been great at home this year as a large favorite. Nets are also one of the worst teams in the league playing on no rest.
Mavs
When I saw the Dallas line this morning I couldn't believe it was only 4 (opening). It is good that it is going up, but I think this line is really short. Seems to me it should be more like 7 or 8. The Mavs were a 6 point fav only days ago against a much better (in my opinion) Warriors team...granted their schedule was a lot worse. But the Mavs have been playing great - they are 13-2 ATS in their last 15, with the only two losses coming to the Spurs and Thunder. That is strong stuff. Maybe it is just my personal opinion that the Hawks suck, and they are better than I think, but I just think the line is way too short here... But here is all the supporting info I found on that game:
Teams playing as a home favorite in a non-conference matchup are 119-29 (+8.2 ppg) and 85-57-6 ATS when coming off a home win of 20 or more since the 2005 season. In this same scenario, if their opponent is coming off a home loss as a favorite, teams are 16-1 SU (14.4) and 14-2 ATS.
Since the 2010 season, teams playing on the road on a 1 game ATS losing streak on two days rest are 5-22 SU (-8.8 ppg) and 7-20 ATS when the total is over 200.
Since the 2005 season, rested teams coming off a home loss are 18-71 SU (-10.2 ppg) and 35-54 ATS when playing on the road against an opponent that is coming off of two home wins.
I am guessing that your fade guy will have Dallas tonight - they have been tearing it up ATS and he has been with them almost the whole way. No reason to back down now!
Charlotte
Teams coming off a loss in which they committed 10 or less turnovers are 24-26 SU and 31-19 ATS when playing as a home dog in an isolated home game against a conference opponent.
Celtics recent schedule: Clippers, Raptors on the road (huge comeback in fourth quarter), Lakers, Nuggets in 3 OT. Great spot for a let down.
Teams playing as a road favorite when they are coming off a win in which they shot worse than 40% from the field and their opponent shot better than 50% are 18-14 SU and 13-19 ATS since the 2005 season.
I'm just not betting on this team anymore. After I bet on them and they had a 20 point lead over the Lakers and couldn't cover +6.5, I'm done - no heart, better places for money. Playing on no rest after a triple overtime game is tough, but I would not use that as the only angle against. After all, these guys are professional athletes and Boston has plenty of guys who can step up on any given night.
Spurs
The Spurs are 11-0 ATS when playing on no rest after a game in which they had less than 15 fouls in their last eleven.
Since the 2005 season, teams coming off a twenty point win are 71-56 SU and 71-54 ATS when playing on the road in a game where the line is between -3.5 and 3.5 if they average more than 99 ppg on the season.
Teams playing in at least their fourth road game are 40-25 SU and 42-23 ATS (average line -0.2) when playing in a non-conference game and their next game is also on the road and they are coming off a double digit victory.
Only the first of these trends actually speaks to this matchup, and the Spurs could find it a lot tougher tonight against a team that actually wants to win and plays good defense. Tough place and matchup in a back-to-back when missing two key players. Easy to get high on them after the beat down they put on the Nets last night, but the Nets lost that game - it was not the Spurs winning, if that makes sense...
Headed out for a high school basketball tournament soon, but will be back later and may hit some half time bets if anything comes up.
Good luck!
Mavs
When I saw the Dallas line this morning I couldn't believe it was only 4 (opening). It is good that it is going up, but I think this line is really short. Seems to me it should be more like 7 or 8. The Mavs were a 6 point fav only days ago against a much better (in my opinion) Warriors team...granted their schedule was a lot worse. But the Mavs have been playing great - they are 13-2 ATS in their last 15, with the only two losses coming to the Spurs and Thunder. That is strong stuff. Maybe it is just my personal opinion that the Hawks suck, and they are better than I think, but I just think the line is way too short here... But here is all the supporting info I found on that game:
Teams playing as a home favorite in a non-conference matchup are 119-29 (+8.2 ppg) and 85-57-6 ATS when coming off a home win of 20 or more since the 2005 season. In this same scenario, if their opponent is coming off a home loss as a favorite, teams are 16-1 SU (14.4) and 14-2 ATS.
Since the 2010 season, teams playing on the road on a 1 game ATS losing streak on two days rest are 5-22 SU (-8.8 ppg) and 7-20 ATS when the total is over 200.
Since the 2005 season, rested teams coming off a home loss are 18-71 SU (-10.2 ppg) and 35-54 ATS when playing on the road against an opponent that is coming off of two home wins.
I am guessing that your fade guy will have Dallas tonight - they have been tearing it up ATS and he has been with them almost the whole way. No reason to back down now!
Charlotte
Teams coming off a loss in which they committed 10 or less turnovers are 24-26 SU and 31-19 ATS when playing as a home dog in an isolated home game against a conference opponent.
Celtics recent schedule: Clippers, Raptors on the road (huge comeback in fourth quarter), Lakers, Nuggets in 3 OT. Great spot for a let down.
Teams playing as a road favorite when they are coming off a win in which they shot worse than 40% from the field and their opponent shot better than 50% are 18-14 SU and 13-19 ATS since the 2005 season.
I'm just not betting on this team anymore. After I bet on them and they had a 20 point lead over the Lakers and couldn't cover +6.5, I'm done - no heart, better places for money. Playing on no rest after a triple overtime game is tough, but I would not use that as the only angle against. After all, these guys are professional athletes and Boston has plenty of guys who can step up on any given night.
Spurs
The Spurs are 11-0 ATS when playing on no rest after a game in which they had less than 15 fouls in their last eleven.
Since the 2005 season, teams coming off a twenty point win are 71-56 SU and 71-54 ATS when playing on the road in a game where the line is between -3.5 and 3.5 if they average more than 99 ppg on the season.
Teams playing in at least their fourth road game are 40-25 SU and 42-23 ATS (average line -0.2) when playing in a non-conference game and their next game is also on the road and they are coming off a double digit victory.
Only the first of these trends actually speaks to this matchup, and the Spurs could find it a lot tougher tonight against a team that actually wants to win and plays good defense. Tough place and matchup in a back-to-back when missing two key players. Easy to get high on them after the beat down they put on the Nets last night, but the Nets lost that game - it was not the Spurs winning, if that makes sense...
Headed out for a high school basketball tournament soon, but will be back later and may hit some half time bets if anything comes up.
Good luck!
Thanks for sharing,always appreciate the stuff you post.I think the depth that the Spurs have will be the difference but as I stated these are just what I have an eye on,waiting to see if I get the text to confirm anything.
hippo i agree 100 per on dallas game... thought that liine would be more as well... but i also thought same thing when denver played bulls on tnt last thursday.. Thought that line should be 8.5 --it was 6 so i got scared and over thought it... first month and half of season dallas played terrible.. but they are trying to get in the playoffs and are a pretty good team imo--- west is so stacked... i believe dallas is better than atlanta... and i do feel atl isnt that good===
bobcats look real live tonight
bobcats look real live tonight
Well seeing how D Williams is out I would figure fade is on Pacers,think he looks for injuries and plays against that team.
