Gotta Bowl

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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
2017-2018 Bowl Season YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)
2017 NCAA Season YTD 74-73 (-8.01*)

San Diego State(-6') over Army (1*)
- - From what I've read, the solid SD run defense does not get a lot of penetration for losses but is solid with their LBs, tackling, gaps, etc., so Army should get some favorable down and distance situations. Of course extra time to prepare for the Army attack is always a plus. But for me it's really a case of liking SD a lot when healthy as a fairly complete and hard nosed West Coast team and I think they find a way to win, and hopefully cover.

Texas Tech(+2) over South Florida (1*)
- - I've been fairly impressed with the strides shown this year by Texas Tech competing on offense and defense against the much tougher schedule, and am expecting a characteristic effort to make them a live dog in this one.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Bowl Season: 3-2 (+0.80*)

Iowa(-2') over Boston College (1.5*)
- - It would be impossible to convince me that any team of players and coaches in a minor Bowl this year has been more motivated during the last month than this Iowa team after being bitch slapped in their last three Bowl games. Looking at quarterback, running game, defense, coaching, styles of play, senior leadership, and motivation (along with talent, depth and health; turnovers; strength of schedule; expectations and momentum; weather and venue; and the #1 lovefest of the Bowl season for BC in the posting forums), Iowa can carry my cash in this Bowl matchup 24/7.

Southern Mississippi(+15) over Florida State (1*)
- - FSU spent the whole off season in the national championship discussion, and then had a shockingly disappointing season before taking the low road to achieve a late season goal of extending their streak of Bowl appearances. Then after earning a Christmas season Bowl game in Shreveport against a C-USA opponent, there came a messy departure by their head coach and lots of team leaders calling it quits. I?m definitely questioning whether this new guy and his remaining staff have all the right stuff to get this team well prepared and then churning and burning throughout the game . . . SMiss has a long tradition of stepping up against Big Boy southern schools, and C-USA has looked pretty good in the Bowl season to date, so I?ll wager the biggest dog of the Bowl season is not in over their heads.

Missouri(-2') over Texas (1*)
- - The right team is favored here.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
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63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
2017-2018 Bowl Season YTD: 5-4 (+1.10*)

Michigan State (-2) over Washington State (1*)
- - Salty and looking to finish what they started on the ash heap of last year . . . I absolutely loved what I saw from Washington State through the USC game, but have seemed satisfied since then.

Virginia Tech(+6') over Oklahoma State (1*)
- - (1) Defensive strength has translated into Bowl success this season. (2) I believe Oklahoma State is still explosive on offense, and VT playing man to man coverage schemes provides opportunities, but IMO OSU has played it surprisingly close to the vest this year in running the ball in numerous down and distance situations, and in being content with their field goal opportunities. (3) But mainly, I like what I?ve seen fromVT HC Justin Fuente for two seasons and I hope I?m getting too many points with the dog in this one.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
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63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
2017-2018 Bowl Season YTD: 7-6 (+0.90*)

Wake Forest(-3)(-129) over Texas A&M (1*)
- - Watching QB John Wolford a few times this year has been something of a revelation for me. I?ll take a dynamic attack by WF to probe and expose an always up and down A&M that offers no reason for believing they will be operating as uncharacteristic road warriors at the peak of their game.

Northwestern(-9) over Kentucky (1*)
- - I think a distinct gap exists between these programs and these teams on this date in 2017. While Northwestern?s greatest attribute this year has been closing out tight, pitched battles without flinching, I also give them much credit for focus, energy and consistency, and I really don?t see why they don?t deliver a statement worthy performance today.

North Carolina State(-6') over Arizona State (1*)
- - NCState has been solid but has definitely seemed a bit overrated for most of the season. They may be lacking in speed to really compete with the elite teams, and other minor Bowl teams can likely hang with them . . . ASU has surprised this year and I was on board a couple of times. When I heard talk that fired HC Todd Graham was much loved by his players, I gave the game and that angle a close look. Simply put, from what I read nothing changed my starting analysis that I?ve seen nothing from the ASU program in decades that would have me wanting them to carry my cash while surrounded by major distractions.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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USC(+10) over Ohio State (1*)
- - Ohio State is the more complete team, but they are no better than the 5th best team in the country, and their defense should not be giving QB Sam Darnold 10 points in a game this big.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Louisville(-7)(+100) over Mississippi State (1*)
- - (1) I don?t have any stronger opinions during this Bowl season than Iowa?s motivation, and QB Lamar Jackson going out with a signature performance. I also suspect Jackson and his cohorts are relishing the challenge of a strong opposing defense, especially after a thumping in their last Bowl effort, and Louisville has actually built up some late season momentum as well. (2) I think Louisville has definitely underachieved with their talent on defense, and now two of their NFL caliber studs are sitting out the game, so I'm not disappointed in the offensive limitations of their opponent. (3) Mississippi State has never earned a reputation for stepping up in their biggest games, and now with multiple distractions, new offensive and defensive signal callers on the sidelines, a freshman QB that really needed a month of practice, and a spotlight moment to salvage some reputation points for their conference, they have a lot on their plate.

Iowa State(+3') over Memphis (1*)
- - Iowa State has a tested defense that will slow down the Memphis video game offense on a frigid and windy day. And I doubt any school has sent a bigger or more passionate contingent of fans to soak up the festivities at any minor Bowl this season, and I think that reflects on and feeds into the energy of their team. The game should be decided very late and I see a live dog that can carry my cash.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Penn State(-3) over Washington (1*)
- - Penn State barely lost two tough road games against 10 win teams while facing the grind of a brutal Big Ten East schedule (plus Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska, and rival Pitt). While their OL is their weakest link, IMO it is not really a weakness. Obvious respect to Washington HC Petersen for some of his prior Bowl efforts, but Penn State is probably the best team in the Big Ten (or just as good as any) and they are fresh and stoked today.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
2017-2018 Bowl Season YTD: 10-10 (-0.40*)
2017 NCAA Season YTD 74-73 (-8.01*)
2017 NFL YTD: 61-54 (+0.23*)


Auburn(-12) over Central Florida (1*)
- -

Michigan(-8') over South Carolina (1*)
- -

Notre Dame(+3)(+102) over LSU (1*)
- -

GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Georgia(-2') over Oklahoma (1*)
- - The Granddaddy of Them All. The hardest game of the New Year's Six Bowl Games for me to pull the trigger on. Very surprised that the line moved so far in Georgia's favor. In deciding, I guess I expect the tone that gets set by the defenses will favor Georgia.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
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Clemson(+3') over Alabama (1*)
- - I read a take that this year Alabama?s offense against good defenses has looked like QB Jalen Hurts running around trying to make plays. I don?t think it has been that bad, but it?s not been real good, and anything like that is a real problem tonight. Clemson with their vast experience and young QB Kelly Bryant has shown me more than Bama all season, and HC Dabo Swinney gets his guys playing loose on the big stage. Clemson has done nothing but make me money for years as a live dog in big games, and they will carry my cash here.

GL
 
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