I loved this game to start and after reading this post I found at another forum, love it even more.
It is a very big play for me, titans +1 VERY BIG.........
In any case, I loved this play with Henne at QB and I love it even more with Pennington making his first start. Let me first say this: Chad Pennington is not a game-changing QB. Henne is not either but at least he's a threat to have a good game once in awhile. I actually think this play is even better with Pennington directing Miami's offense. First of all, for Pennington to be successful, Miami needs to run the ball. Well, this Dolphins team is very mediocre at it. On the season they are 16th in rushing yards per game at 106 per and 21st at yards per attempt with 3.9 average. No wonder this team is 28th in the league in scoring per game with only 18 ppg. The perception out there is that this is a 'running team'. Clearly they're not good enough at running the ball to have this perception. On the other hand we have a Titans team that is the #1 scoring team in the NFL at 28 ppg and #9 at keeping its opponents from scoring, allowing only 18.8 ppg on defense. This is a very good football team. By not being able to rely on the running game, Pennington will be forced to pass the ball and I don't see him being very successful at it. Titans D-line will force Miami to become one-dimensional, and thus spend most of the game tee-ing off on CP. In addition, I don't see the Titans having trouble putting up points against a middle-of-the-pack defense which is 17th in points allowed: 22 ppg.
Let's take a look at home/away splits between these 2 squads. On the road this year, the Titans are scoring 29.5 ppg while giving up 18.2, for a +11.3 ppg differential. In those games they're averaging 10.9 YPPT on offense which is a sick #, indicating a very efficient road offense. Defensively, they're giving up 23.1 YPPT, which is also an incredible #. Their efficiency on defense in road games is even more impressive. Miami, on the other hand, scores 19.7 ppg at home and gives up 31.7 for a -12 ppg differential. They're very inefficient on offense in those games with a 19.5 YPPT average and even worse on defense allowing only 10.7 YPPT in those games. Teams are moving the ball with ease when playing the Dolphins on their home field. When looking at just these stats, you can easily see that there's no way that the Titans should only be 1 point favorites. There's tremendous value here!
But let's not stop there. Here are a few more factors to consider. Tennessee is coming off a 'bye' week and I love taking rested teams in the first game after their bye. They're 10-6 after their bye and already 3-1 ATS in road games this year. Dolphins are coming home off a tough 4 game stretch, 3 of which were on the road. They went 1-3 in those games having played some tough opponents like GB, Pitt, and Baltimore. It won't get easier with a rested Titans team coming to town.
Looking at turn-over differential we see that the Titans are +6 in that department, while Miami is -6. This is another critical factor in this game. Who do you think has an advantage here: a defense that is 2nd in the league with 19 takeaways through 8 games or a 34 year old QB, who is coming off another major surgery on his throwing shoulder, and is making his first start of the year?
This line is way too low. I don't care that the Titans are on the road in this one. Feel free to lay anything below 3.5 points in this one as I see the Titans dominating this game for the full 60 minutes.
Titans win this one 32-15
It is a very big play for me, titans +1 VERY BIG.........
In any case, I loved this play with Henne at QB and I love it even more with Pennington making his first start. Let me first say this: Chad Pennington is not a game-changing QB. Henne is not either but at least he's a threat to have a good game once in awhile. I actually think this play is even better with Pennington directing Miami's offense. First of all, for Pennington to be successful, Miami needs to run the ball. Well, this Dolphins team is very mediocre at it. On the season they are 16th in rushing yards per game at 106 per and 21st at yards per attempt with 3.9 average. No wonder this team is 28th in the league in scoring per game with only 18 ppg. The perception out there is that this is a 'running team'. Clearly they're not good enough at running the ball to have this perception. On the other hand we have a Titans team that is the #1 scoring team in the NFL at 28 ppg and #9 at keeping its opponents from scoring, allowing only 18.8 ppg on defense. This is a very good football team. By not being able to rely on the running game, Pennington will be forced to pass the ball and I don't see him being very successful at it. Titans D-line will force Miami to become one-dimensional, and thus spend most of the game tee-ing off on CP. In addition, I don't see the Titans having trouble putting up points against a middle-of-the-pack defense which is 17th in points allowed: 22 ppg.
Let's take a look at home/away splits between these 2 squads. On the road this year, the Titans are scoring 29.5 ppg while giving up 18.2, for a +11.3 ppg differential. In those games they're averaging 10.9 YPPT on offense which is a sick #, indicating a very efficient road offense. Defensively, they're giving up 23.1 YPPT, which is also an incredible #. Their efficiency on defense in road games is even more impressive. Miami, on the other hand, scores 19.7 ppg at home and gives up 31.7 for a -12 ppg differential. They're very inefficient on offense in those games with a 19.5 YPPT average and even worse on defense allowing only 10.7 YPPT in those games. Teams are moving the ball with ease when playing the Dolphins on their home field. When looking at just these stats, you can easily see that there's no way that the Titans should only be 1 point favorites. There's tremendous value here!
But let's not stop there. Here are a few more factors to consider. Tennessee is coming off a 'bye' week and I love taking rested teams in the first game after their bye. They're 10-6 after their bye and already 3-1 ATS in road games this year. Dolphins are coming home off a tough 4 game stretch, 3 of which were on the road. They went 1-3 in those games having played some tough opponents like GB, Pitt, and Baltimore. It won't get easier with a rested Titans team coming to town.
Looking at turn-over differential we see that the Titans are +6 in that department, while Miami is -6. This is another critical factor in this game. Who do you think has an advantage here: a defense that is 2nd in the league with 19 takeaways through 8 games or a 34 year old QB, who is coming off another major surgery on his throwing shoulder, and is making his first start of the year?
This line is way too low. I don't care that the Titans are on the road in this one. Feel free to lay anything below 3.5 points in this one as I see the Titans dominating this game for the full 60 minutes.
Titans win this one 32-15
