We're a little under six weeks into the NBA season, so have we picked up on any lessons in terms of the lines? Let's take a look. This is meant as more of a look at how teams are performing relative to expectations than a guide for your own betting purposes.
#1 DETROIT SHOULD NEVER BE FAVORED
The Pistons are now 0-7 as favorites, with all seven at home. They are a league-worst minus-10.5 points vs. the spread this season. I say this all to point out that the Pistons are really the Sixers of vs. the spread considerations.
They effectively should never be favored, and if you see them favored, grab the points like it's a ladder out of a well you've been stuck in. Seven games too small a sample for you? They failed to cover as favorites vs. Orlando, Utah, Philadelphia and the Nets. They won't be favored against good teams, but even against the dregs they can't manage moderate lines. That said, the gains for this team could be greater long-term as the cumulative effect of Stan Van Gundy takes hold, and the hope for a trade comes to fruition.
So, yeah, sample size. But it's definitely something to watch; the Pistons are looking like the ultimate fade team as favorites.
#2 DON'T UNDERESTIMATE THOSE SIXERS (AGAINST THE SPREAD)
Philadelphia may be a train wreck slamming into an open sewage spill, but some oddsmakers haven't quite figured them out yet. The Sixers are 10-9 vs. the spread, but looking a little deeper shows some interesting things. Philadelphia is 7-3 vs. the Western Conference, one of the best marks ATS in the league along with Milwaukee. Typically the West-East matchups have been disastrous for the East, but there's a little bit of expectation letdown going on here. Teams like San Antonio and Dallas have rested their stars against Philly, and you can expect that trend to continue.
Additionally, the 76ers are now 8-3 vs. spreads of plus-10 or more. They've been sneaky competitive in terms of point margin. Very few teams are trying to put the hammer down and embarrass Philly, even if makes them feel better. Will those numbers start to adjust as lines get wiser? Sure. But it's at least indicative that the Sixers are more spry than people think, which is a testament to Brett Brown .
Also, I'd really love to have this conversation with Brett Brown but it wouldn't go well on any number of levels. "Coach, I know you're 1-18, and that's not great, but listen. You're 10-9 vs. the spread! You suck significantly less than the level Vegas expects you to!"
Yeah, I can't see that going well.
#3 ROAD WARRIORS, WHAT A RUSH
Three East teams are sure to see their road lines adjust, because they've been murdering spreads left and right as road dogs. The Pacers (10-2), Bucks (8-3), and Magic (10-4) are just destroying lines when they're not favored on the road.
Frank Vogel took a lot of heat for the way the Pacers imploded last season. But without Paul George, with Lance Stephenson in Charlotte, and relying on guys like Solomon Hill and Chris Copeland, Vogel has managed to be extremely competitive despite a brutal schedule (8th toughest via Basketball-Reference). The Bucks have surprised everyone and continue to not just be decent, but actually pretty good. The Bucks are the mirror image of the Pistons, basically. Of note, the Bucks are 4-1 vs. the spread against Western Conference teams, the best record in the league.
#4 THE WARRIORS ARE AMAZING
Golden State's the best team in the league at the moment straight-up, and they're also killing it against expectations. 12-6 overall ATS, the Warriors are 8-3 vs. the Western Conference against the spread. Whether that's inflated confidence in the other teams, or Golden State being more awesome than expected, you can bet those lines are going to shift dramatically as the season goes on.
Even more shocking, the Warriors are 4-2 when giving more than 9 points. They win bigger than expected when expected to win big.
#5 GOD SAVE THE EAST
All those nice words I said about those road warrior East teams? When they're at home, it's a different story.
The combined home ATS record when getting points for Brooklyn, Boston, Charlotte, New York, Orlando, Miami, Indiana, and Atlanta: 5-26. FADE THE EAST AT HOME FOREVER.
#6 CAVALIER COMPLICATIONS
The Cavs are 8-10 vs. the spread, but have covered in four of their last six. So what's the verdict? We don't know. Staying away from Cleveland is probably the play until we get a sense of where they are. When they look good, they look great, and when they look bad they look like a hot mess. There's just no way to feel good about where they're at.
#1 DETROIT SHOULD NEVER BE FAVORED
The Pistons are now 0-7 as favorites, with all seven at home. They are a league-worst minus-10.5 points vs. the spread this season. I say this all to point out that the Pistons are really the Sixers of vs. the spread considerations.
They effectively should never be favored, and if you see them favored, grab the points like it's a ladder out of a well you've been stuck in. Seven games too small a sample for you? They failed to cover as favorites vs. Orlando, Utah, Philadelphia and the Nets. They won't be favored against good teams, but even against the dregs they can't manage moderate lines. That said, the gains for this team could be greater long-term as the cumulative effect of Stan Van Gundy takes hold, and the hope for a trade comes to fruition.
So, yeah, sample size. But it's definitely something to watch; the Pistons are looking like the ultimate fade team as favorites.
#2 DON'T UNDERESTIMATE THOSE SIXERS (AGAINST THE SPREAD)
Philadelphia may be a train wreck slamming into an open sewage spill, but some oddsmakers haven't quite figured them out yet. The Sixers are 10-9 vs. the spread, but looking a little deeper shows some interesting things. Philadelphia is 7-3 vs. the Western Conference, one of the best marks ATS in the league along with Milwaukee. Typically the West-East matchups have been disastrous for the East, but there's a little bit of expectation letdown going on here. Teams like San Antonio and Dallas have rested their stars against Philly, and you can expect that trend to continue.
Additionally, the 76ers are now 8-3 vs. spreads of plus-10 or more. They've been sneaky competitive in terms of point margin. Very few teams are trying to put the hammer down and embarrass Philly, even if makes them feel better. Will those numbers start to adjust as lines get wiser? Sure. But it's at least indicative that the Sixers are more spry than people think, which is a testament to Brett Brown .
Also, I'd really love to have this conversation with Brett Brown but it wouldn't go well on any number of levels. "Coach, I know you're 1-18, and that's not great, but listen. You're 10-9 vs. the spread! You suck significantly less than the level Vegas expects you to!"
Yeah, I can't see that going well.
#3 ROAD WARRIORS, WHAT A RUSH
Three East teams are sure to see their road lines adjust, because they've been murdering spreads left and right as road dogs. The Pacers (10-2), Bucks (8-3), and Magic (10-4) are just destroying lines when they're not favored on the road.
Frank Vogel took a lot of heat for the way the Pacers imploded last season. But without Paul George, with Lance Stephenson in Charlotte, and relying on guys like Solomon Hill and Chris Copeland, Vogel has managed to be extremely competitive despite a brutal schedule (8th toughest via Basketball-Reference). The Bucks have surprised everyone and continue to not just be decent, but actually pretty good. The Bucks are the mirror image of the Pistons, basically. Of note, the Bucks are 4-1 vs. the spread against Western Conference teams, the best record in the league.
#4 THE WARRIORS ARE AMAZING
Golden State's the best team in the league at the moment straight-up, and they're also killing it against expectations. 12-6 overall ATS, the Warriors are 8-3 vs. the Western Conference against the spread. Whether that's inflated confidence in the other teams, or Golden State being more awesome than expected, you can bet those lines are going to shift dramatically as the season goes on.
Even more shocking, the Warriors are 4-2 when giving more than 9 points. They win bigger than expected when expected to win big.
#5 GOD SAVE THE EAST
All those nice words I said about those road warrior East teams? When they're at home, it's a different story.
The combined home ATS record when getting points for Brooklyn, Boston, Charlotte, New York, Orlando, Miami, Indiana, and Atlanta: 5-26. FADE THE EAST AT HOME FOREVER.
#6 CAVALIER COMPLICATIONS
The Cavs are 8-10 vs. the spread, but have covered in four of their last six. So what's the verdict? We don't know. Staying away from Cleveland is probably the play until we get a sense of where they are. When they look good, they look great, and when they look bad they look like a hot mess. There's just no way to feel good about where they're at.
