GREAT PROPOSITION BET 2

[JIMMYBOY]

I found this proposition bet interesting too

TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY JOSEHP ADDAI OVER 2.5 -110.

Ok here is the total record for all 19 games he has played: 9 -10.

against good defense like jack, den, buf, mia, bal, he had 3,5,7,3,3 enough to cover the line and the 3 post season games he covered in two of them, he had 7 against kansas, and 3 against baltimore.

I think he is the clue to the indianapolis colts, if he has a good game, Indy wins. Because of the good defense against the run I think Peyton will have to go more often to his escape valve and that is where Addai comes to play.

I think that he covers this one

What are your thoughts?

 

[Emersonboozer]

I think you are onto something here. Chicagos defense will be fired up and the only chance they have is to bring pressure or Manning will kill them. That means Manning will have to dump the ball off to his release valve. Add to that a few screen passes and swing passes and looks like an easy winner. I like it

 

[JIMMYBOY]

thanks emerson Thats is exactly why I love this prop too


good luck

 

[Padre]

the only way i see this working, is if Manning reads blitz and audible at line for screen pass.

i dont see Dungy calling a screen pass play.if it isnt a run play the backfield will be picking up all blitzs and the heavy pressure they will be bringing.

 

[BEAU]

Liking you reasoning here - may just have to jump on that one.

Take a look at OVER 3.5 fg's in game as well.

 

[SAINTS 3]

I took the over on the 3.5 field goals as well

 

[Old School]

like the prop..there are things to consider here though..

1. Bears are not a hard blitzing team.Their pressure must come from up front.
2.Teams that did blitz Manning and Co. paid a dear price.
3.Manning check down..Here is where the prop has merit..Check down to third and fourth option was critical and successful throughout most of the reg.season.As the Colts season progressed and the coaching staff gained more confidence in Addai .If you are under the opinion that Bears stop the run while still maintaining pass pressure on Manning then Addai and Dallas Clark are the options.This adds even more value to the prop...but consider this..
4. When Tommie Harris suffered a season-ending hamstring injury on Dec. 3 opponents no longer had to worry about double-teaming the disruptive defensive tackle, they devoted more attention to the Bears' ends, and the pass rush faltered. It rebounded some in the postseason, as the Bears got 3 sacks in each of their first two playoff games, including 2 by Ogunleye and 1 each by Brown and Anderson.Note to this..neither Seattle w/ injuries on "O" line nor the N.O. offensive "O" line which was put in a horrible position via lost fumbles and the 4th quarter TD pass by Grossman at the 14:32 mark that allowed Bears "D" to ignore the threat of the run w/a 24-14 lead were what I would call super
It's important to note that the versions of the "Tampa2" defense that both Chicago and Indy employ are not blitzing defenses.The Bears ranked first in the NFC in total defense during the season because they are very good in all phases of "D".Their total sacks and sack yardage were very good..But not earth shattering.
5.big key here as well..
Manning was dropped just 14 times while throwing every one of the Colts' 557 passes this season. That's one sack for every 40 passes. Manning has practically mastered the art of not getting caught holding the ball.
Major plus for this prop.One of the reasons the Colts are playing Sunday is the fact that Manning finally realized that Colts offense could not only hit the big plays but could actually control the clock w/3rd down efficiency w/dump passes that kept what was then a porous run "D" off the field..Didn't work all the time but well enough to win games.
6. Will not bore ya with time of possession #'s and 3rd down efficiency but look them over through the course of this run to the Super Bowl..Rather impressive to me.
7.TE Dallas Clark vs. MLB Brian Urlacher: Clark, the leading receiver in this postseason, ran roughshod over the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots during the playoffs, but the Baltimore Ravens' athletic linebackers held him in check. Considering Urlacher was covering New Orleans' Reggie Bush at times two weeks ago, he (and wingman Lance Briggs) should make it difficult for Clark to get open.Briggs certainly quick and strong but just a tad shorter and lighter than ClarK
Gotta believe Urlacher draws Clark.Lets hope Addai can get the 3 catches in these match-ups.


best of luck w/the prop..

props can have value..finding value in the Super bowl[side and total] is very hard IMHO..EVERY FRIGGIN ASPECT OF THE GAME IS COVERED OVER AND OVER..but I am a firm believer that a couple of glaring props stick out ..IMHO you found one here.

sources..espn,usa today..and me:scared

 

[JIMMYBOY]

Thanks Old school for all the information and stats you gave us. I am definitively playing this prop as well as rhe manning prop to run for more than 1.5 yds.

good luck and thanks

jimmyboy

 

[Marra]

What about Bears total first quarter points +1.5 (-170) though -

vs.

Tiger Woods total birdies -1.5 in the 4th round of the Dubai

So...if the Bears score a touchdown - Tiger needs to have 9 birdies to beat you.

170 is a lot, but I think it might be worth it, esp. since it is a guaranteed win if they score 10 points, as Tiger would need 12 birdies.

 

[Marra]

Woods shot a 69 with 3 bogeys...so that means he shot a 66 which is 7 birdies...-1.5 = 5.5...TD wins the prop!

 

[KIKIN06]

GREAT JOB JIMMYBOY , GREAT JOB , GOOD THING I CHOOSE TO FOLLOW YOU WITH THAT PLAY.

GREAT JOB

 

[JIMMYBOY]

thanks kikin, sorry for the peyton play, but went
2-1 in the superbowl.

I can not wait for the baseball season to start

good luck

jimmyboy

 

[smurphy]

Jimmy, I'm sure you saw the crucial play that would have covered your Manning prop. He should have run - could have gained at least 5 yards, but dished it off instead. When I saw that play, I thought to myself "there goes jimmy's bet!".

 

[JIMMYBOY]

THANKS SMURPHY, Yes I saw it and it should have been a winner, he had like 5 more yds before a bear player. but I am happy the way I capped this game, almost everyhting went right like I thought so.

thanks again and I will be back posting MLB winners for this next season