This week's free pick comes from the Thursday Night Football game that will see the Green Bay Packers on the road against the San Francisco 49ers.
The Packers began the season with four consecutive wins but have lost two of their last three. Last week, Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook single-handedly beat them with 163 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The 28-22 loss left the 5-2 Packers a half-game ahead of the Chicago Bears in the NFC North.
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After an opening loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the 49ers are trying to play themselves back into playoff contention. They gave up 30 consecutive points last week in a 37-27 loss to Seattle to fall to 4-4. The Niners are in last place in the very tough NFC West.
Betting Lines
The Thursday night matchup between the 49ers and Packers is a rematch of last season's NFC Championship Game. San Francisco won that game 37-20 and went on to lose to Kansas City in the Super Bowl.
This season is shaping up a little differently, especially for San Francisco. As a five-point underdog, San Francisco finds itself in an almost must-win situation. Halfway through their season, the 49ers are looking up at four teams in the Wild Card race.
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The 49ers play three of them, plus a couple of division leaders, in a brutal remaining schedule. The combined record of the teams they play in their last eight games is 36-23. Only Washington and Dallas have losing records, while all of the others are currently in playoff contention.
The over/under is at 50, a total that Packers games have reached five times. San Francisco's games have only topped 50 points twice, averaging 47.6 on the season. The moneyline has Green Bay at -240 and the Niners at +200.
This season, Green Bay is 5-2 and San Francisco is 4-4 against the spread and the over/under.
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Game Preview
Before last week, the Packers were giving up a respectable 110 yards a game on the ground. San Francisco doesn't have a running back that poses the same threat as Cook. The Niners are averaging 127 yards a game rushing, just about the same as Green Bay.
This game should really come down to whether Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers can execute in the passing game. San Francisco is fourth in the league in pass defense, posing a real challenge for the future Hall of Famer.
In a 38-10 loss to Tampa Bay, Rodgers completed 16-of-35 for 160 yards. He also threw two interceptions and was sacked four times, half of his season total. If San Francisco can have the same kind of success on defense, it will be a long night for Rodgers.
The 49ers have had a difficult time protecting their quarterback, giving up a total of 22 on the season. Green Bay has 16 sacks so far, led by Za'Darius Smith with six. The Packers will be looking to keep the pressure on starting quarterback Nick Mullens.
These teams have struggled against good competition, recording just one victory apiece against a winning team. This game has the potential to be close, but the 49ers will find a way to shut down Rodgers. The Packers have rushed for more than 100 yards just once in their last five games.
The 49ers defense will do to Green Bay what it did in January and pull out a close, low-scoring win.
Take San Francisco and the under.
