Guarantee!

[Livin' Large]

First of all, let me preface this post by saying that I don't guarantee too many things when it comes to sports gambling. In fact, I have never guaranteed anything on this site. Having said that, I guarantee that if you bet New Jersey in this series, for the same amount each game, you will make a profit.

Lines are based on public perception, we all know that. The public's perception coming into this series is that Los Angeles will cruise to another title against New Jersey. After all, the Lakers just defeated the best team in the NBA during the regular season (Sacramento). That series was the NBA Finals in most people's eyes, including the Lakers.

Los Angeles will be physically, mentally and emotionally drained coming into Wednesday's game. There will be a natural letdown on the Lakers part. New Jersey knows that it must put forth maximum effort just to compete with the world champion Lakers. The Nets have nothing to lose. Nobody expects them to win more than two games in this series. If you bet New Jersey each game, you will be getting tremendous value throughout the entire series.

As for me, I will be on the Nets for a large amount of money in game one. If I win, I will play with my profit for the remainder of the series. If I lose, I will come back with New Jersey in game two for the same amount, if not more.

Refuse to Lose!
:firing:

 

[ironlock]

I must say that I stopped responding to these posts awhile back, but for some reason I just had to read this one and feel like entertaining myself so here goes.

A couple points.

First, you are as 'public' as the 'public'. There are just as many guys, if not more, out there thinking like you. Dont fool yourself into thinking you have got a leg up on analysis. Smart money has more impact on the line than public money, and right now...it thinks 7.5

The only thing we know, is that your 'perception' of 'public perception' is that the Lakers will cruise to victory.

Whether that is the case or not is arguable. What really matters is the number. YOu see, what if the number was 2...would you still say the Nets have value. Not likely.

What you say of Nets value can only be true of the moneline, not the spread.... If the 'public' or whatever, believes that the Lakers will roll in this series, that does NOT necessarily translate into a belief that they will COVER in the series.

Public Smuplic.!

You are the public. I am the public. We are the public.

Do you really think that there are large numbers of people that bet without thinking, and if so, do you really think that bookmakers move lines based on these people's opinions?

Public Smublic!

Drivel.

Good Day!

Sometimes I guy likes to sit and think, sometimes a guy just likes to sit.

 

[Livin' Large]

Ironlock, you asked me if I thought the Nets would be getting value at 2. I don't understand your question. First of all, the line isn't two, it's New Jersey +8 (value in my opinion). Secondly, I don't anticipate that the line will be 2 at any point in this series. Your question is a moot point for now. In addition, obviously you have decided to read into my post way more than you should have. My point was that if you bet New Jersey, each game for the same amount, you will make a profit in the end. I stand by what I said. I will put my money where my mouth is. Oh, one last thing, this is especially for you:

New Jersey on the moneyline in game 1. The Nets will shock the betting public on Wednesday at Staples Center.

Good luck!

 

[doochuk]

LAKER'S WILL ROLL

LAKER'S WILL ROLL

DON'T BE FOOLED
LAKER'S MAKE IT LOOK IT EASY
THEY WILL COVER BOTH GAMES IN LA

 

[Livin' Large]

NBA Finals preview: Nets vs. Lakers
June 5, 2002
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com


Fresh off a grueling seven-game series versus Sacramento, Los Angeles jumps back into the fire at home Wednesday night to meet New Jersey in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Lakers as eight-point favorites, but most sports books were listing the two-time defending champs as 7 1/2-point favorites late Tuesday. The total is listed at 189 1/2.

Phil Jackson's club has been installed as a $9.00 favorite (bet $9.00 to win $1.00) to capture the series, with the Nets getting $6.00 (bet $1.00 to win $6.00).

New Jersey should be well rested after polishing off Boston in Game 6 of the East finals last Friday as a four-point road underdog, 96-88. The 184 combined points dipped 'under' the closing 187-point total.

Jason Kidd led his team to victory with 15 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists. Kenyon Martin led five other double-figure scorers with 16 points.

New Jersey, 63-35 SU and 55-41 ATS during the regular season, is 11-5 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in the playoffs. The 'under' is 9-7 in the squad's 16 postseason contests.

These teams met twice during the regular season, with both clubs winning at home. Los Angeles collected a 101-92 home win as a 6 1/2-point 'chalk' on March 5. The 193 points jumped 'over' the closing 190-point total. Kenyon Martin and Kobe Bryant both sat out this game due to suspensions.

It was a different story at the Meadowlands on April 3 when the Nets won a 94-92 decision as 2 1/2-point favorites. The 186 points slithered 'under' the 191 1/2-point total. Shaquille O'Neal missed this game with an injured wrist.

Obviously, the two biggest concerns for the Nets are defending O'Neal and Bryant. In the past, it was a bonus to have reserve post players with six fouls to burn on O'Neal. However, "The Diesel" has been money at the free throw line in the playoffs.

In fact, he buried 13-of-17 free throws in a Game 6 win over the Kings. Then in Game 7, he was 11-for-15 at the charity stripe.

Therefore, the "Hack-a-Shaq" philosophy isn't what it used to be.

The Nets have a height advantage on defense. Five players are 6-9 or taller, which will make for effective double-teams on the blocks.

Rookie Jason Collins (7-0, 260) gets limited minutes off the bench and will have six fouls to give in each game. Todd MacCulloch (7-0, 280) has experience going against O'Neal from last year's Finals appearance with the 76ers.

Los Angeles (69-28 SU, 46-50 ATS) was extremely fortunate to escape the Kings in the West finals. Let's examine all that had to happen to make this potential 'three-peat' possible.

For starters, Sacramento had to allow a 24-point second-quarter lead to slip away in Game 4. In addition, Vlade Divac had to miss a free thow in the waning moments to set up Robert Horry's cold-blooded buzzer beater.

Next, the Lakers "earned" 27 trips to the free throw line in the fourth quarter of Game 6. Plus, they were given every single call (and no-call) in the last two minutes.

Then in Game 7, Sacramento choked at the charity stripe, shooting an inexplicable 16-of-30 (53 percent).

That's not to take away from the Lakers winning the West. Sacramento had its chances and didn't take care of business. It's merely to point out that this isn't nearly as dominant a team that beat the 76ers in five games last season.

Expect Bryant to defend Kidd in the fourth quarter of games, just as he did against Mike Bibby in the prior series. Also look for O'Neal to see double-teams galore, placing the onus on Horry, Derek Fisher and Rick Fox to hit open perimeter jumpers.

I expect the Lakers to be flat on Wednesday night. They can't help but be mentally and physically taxed after the Sacramento series. Plus, the guess here is they'll be overconfident as well.

On the flip side, the Nets have nothing to lose and should have fresh legs after a five-day layoff.

Despite an atrocious 0-8 ATS record at home in the playoffs, oddsmakers still haven't made any adjustments because the Lakers are such a "public" team.


Couldn't have said it better myself!

 

[ALWAYS PRAYEN]

GREAT WRITE UP LIVIN LARGE!!

PUFF PUFF

THIS BOWLS FOR YOU!!!

 

[edludes]

Wow!Talk about "public".As reliable as a 900 guarantee.By the way,wheres dede and why hasn't she been asking for you lately?That was a cute attention getter!

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I must say that I stopped responding to these posts awhile back

Since when?

Good to see you, Ironlock.

 

[Livin' Large]

Edludes, I have no idea what you're talking about! You must have smoked too much of Always Prayen's dope. Didn't you read his post? He said that bowl was for me. Anyways, New Jersey shoots 12-24 from the free throw line and still covers. I just made enough money to play the rest of the series on the house without any worries! Will most likely come back with New Jersey again in game 2.

Refuse to Lose!
:firing:

 

[mcity]

ok livin, I was worried a little bit for you......even though I liked the play and went with the nets myself, I'm not a huge fan of the "G" word or "L" word....just glad Kenyon hit that late three for us and all worked out alright. I had a parlay on the nets and under too which I got boned on with that crazy a$$ 4th quarter scoring fest....but at least the game came through!!! Keep up the good work, and looking forward to friday....early lean for me also towards the nets. Peace bro!

 

[Livin' Large]

MCity, I never guaranteed a Nets' cover in game one. My guarantee was that if you bet the Nets, each game for the same amount, you will make a profit in this series. Looks good so far! I'm glad that you decided to play New Jersey. Good luck on Friday bro!

 

[mcity]

Livin,


game 1.....new jersey cover

game 2.....lakers cover

game 3.....push for most....but some may have had nets +2 1/2
but I'll still consider this game a push.

game 4.....lakers cover


You said to bet the same amount on new jersey each game, and you would guarantee a profit. Ok, I just bet $100 on new jersey every game in this series (not because of your boast post mind you, but because I liked NJ in every game getting points).

given the (1-2-1 outcome...given the push)

+100
- 220
_____

- 120 betting on nets every game...not really a profit last time I checked...except for my locals pocket!! Thankfully, I won three out of four total plays for the series...only thing that saved me from a total meltdown!!


and for those unfortunate souls who were stuck by a local at +2 1/2 in game 3....or those who don't have an offshore account like myself...and can't shop for the best lines, this bottom line could look like -230 with a loss in game 3 instead of a push.


I've been probably your biggest supporter on this board since the first day you arrived here....but I would suggest you learn a very valuable lesson here....there are no guarantees in sports betting. Look at the most respected cappers on this board...I don't know any who use the word lock or gurantee. Anyway, I hope to see you around during football, and I hope if you are around, you show up with a better attitude. We are all here to help each other, and posts in which someone boasts about a lock or guarantee only detract from what we are all trying to accomplish. Sports gambling is all about experience and learning from your mistakes....hopefully we will all come back stronger, wiser, and more experienced in a couple of months and kick some serious a$$ in football. Have a good summer!!

 

[edludes]

1-900-LIVIN' LARGE

1-900-LIVIN' LARGE

The Nets were overmatched and it was easy to see even in the first game which they covered.Everybody takes turns losing bets,but that doesn't necessarily mean they're "the Public",does it?It just means they lost a bet,but "guarantees" like yours usually make for humorous reading afterward.By the way,wheres Dede?

 

[Livin' Large]

MCity, I agree with everything that you said. I made a bold prediction that didn't come true. I'm not going to run from it. I will eat my words like a man. I hope you have a great summer. Hope to see you in the baseball forum before football starts. Good luck bro!

Edludes, get a life! Don't you have anything better to do? I think the Alaskan air has done something detrimental to your brain. Do yourself a big favor, go outside tonight, drill a hole in the ice somewhere, stick your little dick down as far as it will go, and maybe one of those giant fish that you have up there will be nice enough to suck you off. Meanwhile, I will be treating DeDe the way she deserves to be treated!

 

[mcity]

livin,

I don't do baseball until the playoffs and world series....but I will definately be around in a couple of months for foots. You are a stand up guy for not disappearing after this tough series.....you showed me a lot of character in doing so!!!:thumb: Have a good summer, good luck with the baseball, and I'm looking forward to working with you and the rest of the great cappers on this board during foots to hopefully kick 'da man in da nutz!! Peace bro!!