Handicapper

ukno6177

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 5, 2006
29
0
0
How exactly does one go about being a handicapper for pay?

I have a formula that I've been plugging NFL stats into over the course of the season and I'm 63-31 but I don't have enough of a bankroll and often bet like an idiot and do long shot parlays, so I haven't made that much despite my picking ability. (though I have more than quadrupled what I originally put in)

Any input is appreciated.
 

ukno6177

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 5, 2006
29
0
0
Or perhaps a more appropriate question is, does such a profession even exist?
 

BleedDodgerBlue

Admin
Forum Member
Feb 12, 2004
7,383
82
0
49
los angeles
How exactly does one go about being a handicapper for pay?

To answer this question, we're going to start with a special case that turns out to be quite simple. If a particle is in a state described by Y=e5ix/ then its momentum is 5. No ambiguity, no probabilities, the momentum is just 5. (Don't worry about the normalization of this wavefunction for the moment; we'll return to that point later.)

Now, as you might guess, there is nothing particularly special about the number 5. If Y=e7ix/ then the momentum is 7. In general, if Y=eipx/ for any constant p, then the momentum of the particle is exactly p.

Functions of this form (Y=eipx/) are known as the basis states of momentum, which means they represent particles that have exactly specified momentum. They may seem like such a special case that it isn't very interesting: how often is Y going to happen to be in just exactly that form? But in fact, the basis states are the key to the whole process. The general strategy is to represent Y as a sum of different basis states, and once Y is represented in that way, you can easily get all the information you need about momentum.

We can illustrate the key "momentum strategy" by moving to a slightly more complicated example.



This is not a basis state, so the momentum is not exactly specified. But this wavefunction is a sum of two different basis states, e23ix/ and e42ix/. We can therefore say with confidence that the momentum of the particle must be either 23 or 42. To find the relative probabilities, we look at the coefficients?the numbers multiplied by these basis states?and we square them. (2)2=4, |2+2i|2=8, so the particle is twice as likely to have momentum 42 as it is to have momentum 23.

In summary, there are two key rules you need to know about momentum.

If Y=eipx/ for any constant p, then the particle's momentum is exactly p. Functions of this form are known as the basis states of momentum.
When the wavefunction is a sum of different momentum basis states, the coefficient squared of each of those basis states gives the probability of measuring the particle's momentum to have that value.
Now, as we did with position, let's proceed up from these very simple and limited examples to apply the same rules to more general cases. In our last example, there were only two possible values of the momentum. What if momentum can be any positive integer? Then we need a formula that looks something like:


where |f(3)|2 gives the relative probability of finding the particle with momentum 3; and, in general, |f(p)|2 gives the relative probability of finding the particle with momentum p, for any p. Since there are infinitely many possibilities, we aren't looking for a bunch of individual numbers: we're looking for one general function, f(p), that will give us all our coefficients and therefore all our probabilities.

Finally, moving (as we did with position) from a discrete world to a continuous world where p can be any real number, what we really want to write is:



The numerical coefficient in front of the integral is just a convention that makes certain equations simpler. Aside from that, this formula simply says "We are representing Y as a combination of different momentum basis states eipx/, each with its own coefficient f(p)." Any function Y(x) can be written in this form, and once you do, you can find the probability of the particle being in any particular momentum range. Some of you may recognize this as the formula for a Fourier Transform. Click for a brief introduction to Fourier transforms, including how to invert this formula to find f(p) for a given wavefunction Y(x).

Of course, moving from a discrete world to a continuous world forces us to view things a little differently, exactly as it did in the case of position. The squared magnitude |f(p)|2 does not represent the probability of finding the particle with momentum p exactly?that probability will always be zero. Instead, you integrate |f(p)|2 between any two numbers to find the probability of the momentum falling into that range: for instance, |f(p)|2 dp gives the probability that the particle will have a momentum between 0 and 1. Analogously to the position case, p|f(p)|2 dp gives you the expectation value of p.

Dealing with a continuous world allows us to finally address the question of normalization that we've been ducking so far in this section. A wavefunction with exact momentum such as Y=e5ix/ cannot be normalized. (Try it!) This means that you can't have a nonzero probability of having your momentum exactly equal to 5, just as the probability of the position being at exactly any point was zero. A wavefunction of the form



can be normalized, however. Recall that to normalize Y you set |Y(x)|2 dx=1, meaning the total probability of finding the particle somewhere is equal to one. It turns out that if you do that you will necessarily find that |f(p)|2 dp=1, meaning that the total probability of finding the particle with some momentum is equal to one. This fact, which follows directly from the properties of Fourier Transforms, is one of those cases where the math seems to almost magically do what it has to in order to give you the right answer.

Since the function f(p) contains all the information that Y(x) contains, but represented in a different form, the two functions Y(x) and f(p) are sometimes referred to as the "position representation" and the "momentum representation" of the wavefunction, respectively. This is pretty elegant because the way you treat f(p) to find momentum probabilities is exactly the way you treat Y(x) to get position probabilities.

So let's summarize what we've learned about momentum.

Y=eipx/ is a "basis state" of momentum, which represents a particle with momentum p.
Any wavefunction can be written as an integral over momentum basis states Y(x)= f(p)eipx/ dp. The function |f(p)|2 then gives you the probability density for momentum.
From there, the rest of the math?normalization, expectation values, and probabilities within specific ranges?is exactly like the math that you do for position, as discussed in the previous section.
All that is great: hopefully it makes sense, and if someone gave you a wavefunction you would be ready to extract all the information on the particle's position and momentum. So that's the good news.
But the bad news is, we used one set of arbitrary looking rules for position, and a completely different set of arbitrary looking rules for momentum. The wavefunction is supposed to tell us everything we would ever want to know about a particle, including its kinetic energy, angular momentum, hair color, cup size, and comparable worth. Are we going to have to learn a whole new set of rules for each observable quantity?

The answer is no. In fact, there is one absolutely general rule that enables you to analyze a wavefunction to find the probabilities of any measurable quantity about a particle. Unfortunately, it's a pretty ugly looking sort of rule, which is why we've been putting it off. Now we're going to get there, and the way we're going to get there is by talking some more about momentum.



gl
 

IntenseOperator

DeweyOxburger
Forum Member
Sep 16, 2003
17,897
63
0
Chicago
How exactly does one go about being a handicapper for pay?

I have a formula that I've been plugging NFL stats into over the course of the season and I'm 63-31 but I don't have enough of a bankroll and often bet like an idiot and do long shot parlays, so I haven't made that much despite my picking ability. (though I have more than quadrupled what I originally put in)

Any input is appreciated.

You can go one of a few basic routes. (read my attention whore sig line from a real deal tout that appears here every now and then when he needs money, with a sensational story about helping someone dying so he wasn't ever able to post for his lusting followers :142smilie )

#1 Sell one side to one half of the country. Sell the other side to the other half of the country. Look like a world beater to half of the US and milk them dumbfucks for their 1st communion money.

#2 Go the "VALUE" route with the big write ups and explanations, and stats stats trends trends trends stats stats stats. Basically capping the game nine ways to Sunday and talking yourself and anyone that reads/buys that there is NO WAY, outside of A FIX, that your train of thought could possibly be wrong. If you lose, EVERYBODY knows the fix was in and there's no way anybody would have known about it.

#3 Go with the douchebag Wilheim and friends r / x Special .....

I'm older than dirt and I live/work or worked in Vegas and have all kinds of connections. I now live in a Central American country and I'm so tired from winning and knowing so many winners that I'll throw you a bone if you pay me. I'm so tired of collecting collecting collecting so I think being this close to the grave I'll help you out of generosity for a couple dimes. But I don't have enough money to get my own crackhead forum operating correctly for some fucking reason. Please praise my bound up ass and I'll tell you another story about drinking with a former Yankee in some "syndicate" owned bar in NJ in 1922, the middle of December when I hit a 8 team parlay for 10 large. Oh yeah, and please pay for my line service that never works but is better than all the other crooked pay line services out there. :142smilie :142smilie :142smilie In case you are a young male and are interested in same sex relationships shoot an email to one of the mods please. That's really why I still sit at this monitor 24 hours a day. A tight newbee ass. :kiss:

#4 Go and post different picks at different forums and always use the term WE, as if you got more going on than laymen will ever understand.

IMP....

Remember there is more than one way to skin a cat. You don't necessarily have to sell a pick. You can sell any other type bullshit involved in gambling. Line movement service or other type info BOUGHT from books who are interested in you losing, stats (Statfox sucks hind tit), trends, or even data bases.

IMP #2

Always speak in terms of thousands of dollars, like the supposed Indian dipshit does here.
 

bleedingpurple

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 23, 2008
22,437
254
83
52
Where it is real F ing COLD
Well I think that you should be posting your picks on the forum to prove how well you do? I want the proof.. If you are as good as you say you are then you will have no problem starting up a service and making it stick. The problem is, is that most aren't very good. It took me a long time to get the services that I have now that consistently make bank..
 

AnalyzerJr

Registered User
Forum Member
Apr 25, 2006
10
0
0
118
How much do you charge? Looking for a good guy to tail. That's a great record will pay top dollar.
 

yak merchant

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 13, 2000
966
4
18
Texas
How exactly does one go about being a handicapper for pay?

I have a formula that I've been plugging NFL stats into over the course of the season and I'm 63-31 but I don't have enough of a bankroll and often bet like an idiot and do long shot parlays, so I haven't made that much despite my picking ability. (though I have more than quadrupled what I originally put in)

Any input is appreciated.

I have no idea on how to be a handicapper for pay.

However....

63-31 is about 1500 to 2000 "events" from statistical significance.

63-31 means you are betting 10 NFL games per week. I promise you can't hit 67% betting on two thirds of all NFL games.

Backtesting is not proof a system works. Most "systems" are either a statistical anomaly or figured out and "bet" into non-existence.

If you quadrupled your bankroll going 63-31 then you probably need to go buy a book on money management. Not even considering your stupid parlay losses, that means whatever your bankroll was, you were betting at least 10% per play. No matter if you can hit 60% in the long run you will hit a streak of 10 losers in a row and go BROKE.

And from personal experience I can almost promise that if you just started plugging stats into a spreadsheet you aren't ready to sell anything. I started plugging stats into spreadsheets in 1991 and trust me if you want to be a "statistical" handicapper that uses Year to Date stats you have a long long way to go.

And most importantly if you truly are good enough to pick winners. Then make money that way, and leave the touting to the crooks.
 

LetsMakeMoney

~Gambla~
Forum Member
Mar 6, 2005
19,452
92
0
47
Sin City
How much do you charge? Looking for a good guy to tail. That's a great record will pay top dollar.

nice try ukno6177 :mj07: :mj07:

identical-twins.jpg
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top