Handicapping Baseball

[Frank White]

THAT IS ONE OF THE BEST POSTS I HAVE EVER READ ON A FORUM. IT COULDNT HAVE COME AT A BETTER TIME - I HAVE TAKEN THE WINTER OFF FROM HOOPS BECAUSE IT IS DEADLY. I AM SLOWLY BUILDING A ROLL FOR THIS COMING BASEBALL SEASON. I WANT TO CAP THE SHIT OUT OF THIS COMING SEASON AND LEARN A THING OR TWO. YOUR POST WAS AN INCREDIBLE HEAD START.

I HAVE 2 BROAD QUESTIONS -

1) WHAT IS YOUR MONEY MGT SYSTEM? I LIKE TO FLAT BET IN GENERAL - BUT ESPECIALLY ON BASEBALL (AND ANY OTHER MONEYLINE PLAYS). DO YOU HAVE ANY STRATEGIES FOR BETTING BIG CHALK - MAYBE EVEN LAYING OFF THEM ALTOGETHER?

2) WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE LINE MOVES?

THANKS AGAIN!

 

[Terryray]

fine stuff ndnfan!

fine stuff ndnfan!

boy, looking forward to your and everyone's contributions here this season.

being new at this I can't add much but some info tidbits.

<a href="http://www.exploratorium.edu/baseball/howfar3.html"> Here is the article</a>, rather technical in nature, on air density and ball travel.


one thing I like is to find exceptions to general rules. Like the big name pitchers coming off of DL---Clemens is almost always super sharp in that situation. (But this exception doesn't pay off too well, 'cause as you note, the line isn't usually adjusted anyway).


Umps do seem to be making more adjustments of late when their stats get off. But some don't and are pure money, like our freind Jim Joyce (tho curiously, he didn't start the season that way--I pretty much ignore ump stats until almost all star break).

but I ramble... again--mucho thanks!

 

[ndnfan]

I HAVE 2 BROAD QUESTIONS -

1) WHAT IS YOUR MONEY MGT SYSTEM? I LIKE TO FLAT BET IN GENERAL - BUT ESPECIALLY ON BASEBALL (AND ANY OTHER MONEYLINE PLAYS). DO YOU HAVE ANY STRATEGIES FOR BETTING BIG CHALK - MAYBE EVEN LAYING OFF THEM ALTOGETHER?

2) WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE LINE MOVES?

THANKS AGAIN!

Frank....a couple interesting questions in that you could say many very good cappers have different views, and in no way do I speak for everyone on these 2 questions, but I will share my thoughts.

1. Money management as I'm sure you already know is probably the single most important thing in sportsbetting...baseball especially. With the baseball season being as long as it is, there is no way your not gonna hit some slumps somewhere during the season..it's gonna happen to the best...that's when you're gonna need it!

What I would recommend is for your betting unit to be a certain percent of your starting bankroll. Here's what I do, which to some is even considered to be a bit on the aggressive side:

1 Betting Unit = 2% of the starting bankroll for the season. Example: If your starting bankroll is $10,000 then your normal bet would be $200

2 Units = 4% of the starting bankroll. (Very small % of your plays)

Like I said, that's even considered a bit on the aggressive side to some pros and actually I used to have my max set at 5%, but I definately recommend to NEVER go more than 4 or 5% on a single play. There's way to much that can happen in a game to justify playing more than that on a game. Betting is not a sprint, the wins will come. As far as varying the bets, of course there's many views on this as well, but personally most of all my plays are for my normal 2% (1 unit) of the bankroll.

Personally, I don't flat bet. I typically play to win a unit on a favorite or play a unit on the dog. I know there's different views on this, but basically that has worked out well for me in the past. I guess if you're laying heavy chalk on a frequent basis, flat betting may be more your style, but as for myself, I don't play what I would consider a large amount of heavy chalk so I'll leave it at that.



2. The question on line movement??? Well, let's just put it this way...I Don't look at line movement at all in baseball when capping the games!! I'm not saying it can't be a good tool to use when capping the games, as I know several successful cappers that do look at this, but I don't do it.

Just from my past experience, getting a really early start on capping the games, you can get a BIG edge with the lines on certain games. Personally, after breaking down the game, I almost always have a sense of which way the line will move. Baseball is unique in that many books still offer the dime line or better(Pinnacle) and with early capping it's unreal how much of an extra profit you can grind over the course of the season with the books by getting a lot of the handicapping done early. Of course, there are times where this is not the case. If after breaking down the game, you're finding some "special" situtional mismatches that you are weighing heavily in that particular game, many times you're better to hold off before placing the bet as the line will many times continue to go to your favor as the overall betting public is not recognizing these unique situations.

Sorry for rambling on. Good luck on the upcoming baseball season Frank!

 

[ndnfan]

Lanny (bohawk).....nice hearing from you. Speaking of Ohio, it's still freezing here!! We had a taste of spring on Monday...actually got up into the 50's, but lets just say that didn't last long


TerryRay....I think I speak for everyone when I say that you're are appreciated at this site. All info is good info and you're one of the best at posting some good stuff and some interesting reads. Good luck on the upcoming season!

 

[hellah10]

Speaking of Ohio, it's still freezing here!! We had a taste of spring on Monday...actually got up into the 50's, but lets just say that didn't last long

 

[HeavyHitter]

thanks for the info....winter is dragging on....at least in the northeast...need baseball fast

 

[Meestermike]

ndn fan...just wanted to wish you all the best in your endeavour. Respect your opinions immensely and will look for your plays when available here at MJ's.

Thanks also for the vast insight and information in this thread.

As a fellow 'capper of MLB, I too am leaning toward the $$$ service way and hope to launch mine to coincide with the upcoming MLB season. After many years of posting and playing the sports investment angles. I am fully confident of the challenge ahead.

Thanks for all of your valuable input

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

For example, betting on a heavy home favorite after they lose the first game of a home series;

:yup :yup :yup :thumb:

covers.com keeps track of the wins / losses for every team in a series.

how they fare in games 1,2,3,4....

good tool.

 

[TAZ]

I am trying to add some of this useful information to my capping methods. Can someone direct me to a place that I can findout about a Pitchers ground ball/ fly ball percentages? It is easy to have a perception about a pitcher but I would like to back it up and most sites I have found do not get into that detail. Any help appreciated. Thanks for all the good info above.

 

[ndnfan]

TAZ....

The ESPN site actually has stats and rankings from the past couple of seasons for the best ground ball to fly ball ratios (G/F)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats...easonType=2&sort=groundToFlyRatio&type=pitch3

Also, A site I used some last season that includes the ground outs per fly outs stats (GO/AO) was the mlb.com site. Just click on Stats and then pitching stats and you can get the info for any pitcher. You can actually get the numbers for the past several seasons there for this particular stat.

Of course, a lot of times the ratio's change every season for these guys...sometimes for the worse, sometimes for the better and that's something to keep in mind as well. But basically what defines a ground ball pitcher is one who has a ground ball to fly ball ratio that is greater than 1.20 over the course of his career. If less than 1.10 over the course of his career, he is considered a fly ball pitcher.

Of course many times, these ground ball type pitchers induce a ton of double plays, so that's also a stat I like to take a glance at. Also like to check to see if the team he will be facing is near the top in grounding into double plays.

What's nice about betting baseball is the fact that finding key that includes stuff such as fly ball or ground ball stats along with other interesting angles and situations, you can get a pretty big edge over the books due to the lines and totals set for the baseball games are weighted heavily on the starting pitchers and their win/loss and era stats when there are many cases where other things have much more bearing on the outcome of the game.

An interesting situation that might arise from the fly ball, ground ball stuff would be an instance where say the 2 starting pitchers who are mediocre or average at best but nonetheless are ground ball pitchers. Then, you take a look at the weather and the wind's blowing in or your playing some place where the ball doesn't carry well such as night games in Los Angeles . All of a sudden the game starts turning into a pitchers dual looking like a matchup of Aces bringing you tremendous value from this alone in playing the "Under." Of course with the starters past reputations or rather high ERA's, Vegas actually came out with an over/under that is set higher than the normal over/unders thus giving you even more value. These mediocre pitchers will still get there fair share of ground ball outs and rally killing double play balls, plus those "mistake" or "grooved" pitches that they have a history of making end up getting hung up and beat down by the wind rather than being hammered out of the ball park for say a 3-run dinger.

This is one of the many situations that can come up that far over weigh the basic stuff that is used to come up with the betting lines. Heck, most the "public or squares" would be on the "OVER" in the above situation, that's why it's always a good idea to keep your mind open and recognize any key situations that might have a lot of bearing on the outcome of the game.

Taz...hope those sites are of some help. Good luck this season!

-ndnfan

 

[TAZ]

Thanks Buckeye neighbor!
I appreciate the wisdom, I am soaking it up :bigear:

 

[Ave Atlantica]

ndnfan

ndnfan

Are there any differences in handicapping AL games vs. NL games?

Ave

 

[ndnfan]

Re: ndnfan

Re: ndnfan

Are there any differences in handicapping AL games vs. NL games?

Ave

AA....not a big difference IMO. In the AL, they have the DH and in the NL the pitchers bat, so you may see some lower scoring games in the NL as most pitchers aren't very good hitters.

The big difference will be interleague play. A couple of things that you wanna take a look at during interleague play is the "pressure pitching."

"pressure pitching" is what I call how the the pitcher performs when the heat is turned up on him a bit such as pitching with runners on, runners in scoring position, runners in scoring position with 2 out. If you compare what average he allows in these situations compared to his overall average he allows, you can get a pretty good idea.

In the NL, the pitchers's numbers will be a lot better overall than in the AL because of their tendency to get out of jams when the pitcher is coming up in the lineup....they can either walk the guy in front of the pitcher, K the pitcher, etc....Just a lot easier to get out of jams. I'll bring more up about this stuff when interleague play starts up.

-ndnfan

 

[g-hawg]

Great info. Thanx a million

 

[Nosigar]

Great write-up!

Great write-up!

I'd like to say which sites (in no particular order) I use to help me cap.

1- Yahoo MLB - great for starting pitchers stats., vs. teams, hitters, day time, night games, etc.

2- Covers - Gives info. on bullpens, last 10 games, teams Home/Away, YTD $W/L given the line.

3- Madjack's Database: Pitchers stats v. temas under many different conditions. Home, away, vs. teams -Home and away, night/day, grass/turf, Righties and lefties vs. teams, etc.

There are a few others which I use when games are tough or too close. Bottom line is focus on a few games and go over the stats. until something pops up that will give you a definite feel or "edge" for that game. usually it's not something that pops out at first glance, could be a certain situation (day/night, etc.) or a particular "Hot" hitter or hitters that do well against a starting pitcher. It just takes a while to get a feel and adjust accordingly as the season goes on.

Many times I have go against situations (even more so than go for situations) such as a particlar pitcher who I will play against for a period of a few games until the linesmaker catch on, or a particular bullpen situation, given a pitcher who may pitch a short game.

Mstly it's a game of following the season and getting a feel for who's hot and who's not. If you miss a week or so many times you're back to square one (which isn't a bad thing if you're having a bad streak).

 

[theGibber1]

. . Money management as I'm sure you already know is probably the single most important thing in sportsbetting...baseball especially. With the baseball season being as long as it is, there is no way your not gonna hit some slumps somewhere during the season..it's gonna happen to the best...that's when you're gonna need it!

What I would recommend is for your betting unit to be a certain percent of your starting bankroll. Here's what I do, which to some is even considered to be a bit on the aggressive side:

1 Betting Unit = 2% of the starting bankroll for the season. Example: If your starting bankroll is $10,000 then your normal bet would be $200

2 Units = 4% of the starting bankroll. (Very small % of your plays)

this is good advice but you might want to let them know they will need to bet more than this if they are paying a tout for their picks.. if they want to make any money that is... either that or count on you, or whoever they are paying to have one hell of a year..:shrug:

 

[ndnfan]

EDITED BY NDNFAN

 

[goldcupsports]

NDFAN

You are one hell of capper. I think you will do well good luck with the biz.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Gibber,

I am sure you had good intentions when you made that statement...

Pete, knowing Danny it was an oversight....

Don't think he was implying anything negative about you, but one has to recall Danny is an aggressive player, with the odd 10 unit play, sometimes 7, and mostly 5 and 3. As for myself, if I can come up +30 units by the end of the MLB season I am thankful, for others they may look at that as a average season. I guess it all depends on one's outlook....


Kindest Regards

 

[theGibber1]

ndnfan,

there is way to much valuable information on this thread to cluster phuk it up with arguments...

ill continue the conversation in the thread where you announced your going pay.

GL