Handicapping question?????

[Jrdhorse]

Just throwing out a question here to test your gambling knowledge. So here it is.

What is the most important statistic available to the handicapper when it comes to football wagering?????

 

[hellah10]

IMO when it comes to football

- Match-ups and Talent

 

[Fabulous]

What does IMO stand for?

 

[hellah10]

In My Opinoin

 

[redsfann]

Yards rushing on offense Vs rushing yards given up on defense. If you can run the ball and stop the run, you will win a lot of football games.

 

[Palmetto Pimp]

Consensus, where the money is, and line moves rank high for me.

 

[mw]

The handicapper's win percentage.

 

[Antonio]

Redsfan hit it!! Rushing..rushing..rushing..rushing.

And of course line movement!!!!


Last night was a perfect example. We had North Texas circled as a play based solely on rushing (offense/defense) #'s all 4 key rushing stats favored North Texas. As a dog no less. Then with some funny line movement that went on throught the day. We grabbed ourselves a nice outright DOG winna !!

1. Rushing Rushing Rushing!!!

2. Sharp Moves Sharp Moves!!

Only 2 of many factors, but 2 of the most important to many of us.

 

[Jrdhorse]

The Answer is

The Answer is

Most important factor is-------- yards per rush / gained and allowed.

 

[buddy]

Whether or not the heavy set lady with the big hair wears a red blouse on game day.

 

[yak merchant]

I agree rushing is very important, but it depends on how you go about getting that statistic. If Team A plays in the WAC and is averaging 6.0 YPC and giving up 3.0 YPC then goes and plays team B that has been playing in the Big 12 all year and is averaging 5.5 YPC and giving up 3.7 YPC. I guarantee that Team B will run the ball down Team A's throat. In other words all stats have to be adjusted for strength of opponent before they take any meaning.

 

[Jrdhorse]

You are right Yak thats why handicapping isnt easy it does take some work to calculate the teams opponents and adjust the yards per rush /gained and allowed.

 

[GENO]

IF I could use only one stat in Football I have an answer and I

will make it public in two weeks after the Mad Jack/Infinity NFL

Contest is final.


In MLB for me it is pitcher's Men on Base Ave. I am no good at

NBA and only marginal at College Hoops so I don't have a firm

answer for those.



PS IT is not yards rushing/allowed for me but I do use that as one of my commands to make a play as I don't rely on the one factor alone !

 

[WHY ASK WHY?]

Buddy's answer makes more sense to me!

Buddy's answer makes more sense to me!

Hell before every game ya get enough stats to fit either result!
And after the game you can make em fit together (JMO)
Use the ones that were appropriate!

It's all about angles and information!!!
otherwise it's a coin flip......

There are emotional factors more at work moreso in colleges than the pros....of all stats money moves are the best.


But;......Joe 6 pack gets it right ....once in a while,....

WHY?

 

[Stuman]

lol :lol:
You can always spot a guy that has been flamed in this forum in the past because he begins every statement with "IMO" or "IMHO". lol

Keys to NCAAF Handicapping. (IMO) :lol:
1. Yards per rush differential between the two teams
2. T.O.P. (again, rush controls the clock)
3. Fade Joe Public
4. Whether or not the WR's coach crapped in the locker room toilettes on game day. <--- Most important:thumb:

 

[WHY ASK WHY?]

If you mean me ....

If you mean me ....

I use JMO because My opinion is the only one I am qualified to give!

I also respect ....although I might not agree with ....other peoples opinion and reputations.

WHY?

 

[Vegas Dave]

Simply put.....and although it is hard to find out....

but where the money is is the biggest factor for me.

 

[Stuman]

why,
wasn't trying to single anyone out, just thought it was funny becasue everyone uses it all of the time. (Because they are afraid they'll get flamed! )

 

[WHY ASK WHY?]

Question .....

Question .....

What does everyone.....feel is the best source of money moves?

WHY?

 

[ferdville]

Redsfan is right on target. Rushing yards gained vs yards given up a huge factor. I have seen stat after stat the debunks the whole theory of steam wagering. Maybe I am missing something because you would think that there may be something to it. However, I have never seen a study that pointed out anything other than line moves are inconsequential to outcome. Maybe I haven't been reading the right stuff.