HANK GOLDBERG'S SPER BOWL PICK

[THE HITMAN]

Hank was 1-1 last week to bring his playoff record to a very formidable 7-3.
You're welcome to those who sent thanks for the write ups. Sometimes it is a lot of typing for me, being a slow typist and it is difficult at times to be around for all of the shows, etc. Sometimes I have to call around for the info I post. But, nonetheless, I enjoy posting it and sorta consider it my small contribution to the forum.........as some of you must realize that I don't post a lot of my personal picks. I don't for three reasons, the first of which is that even though I consider foots my strongest area and do post a decent profit 4 out of every 5 years, my favorite plays that I post somehow usually turn to "mush". I just jinx the hell out of plays by posting them. Secondly, I really feel terrible when someone loses money on my account. The agony for someone else's defeat outweighs the thrill of it for me when I get them a victory. And lastly.........who really cares? I'll try to continue next season, there seems to be decent inerest as last week the thread got over 1100 views. That makes it worthwhile for me.
I will add more of Hank's thoughts as they come in.

The early lean seems to be New England. He ponders " How can you go against the Patriots with their perfect playoff record the past few years ?". He leaned this way at -6 & 6.5.

 

[THE KOD]

I repect the pick and it sounds good.

But whenever I hear ....there is no way in hell NE doesn't eat
some philly cheese steak.

it makes me pause for a moment and think about things.

What if McNabb and Westbrook bring their best games. The Philly D is able to stop the run. The three pro bowlers in the backfield do their jobs.
McNabb spanks Brady and the Patriots.

Anything can happen in the Super Bowl game.

And what if T Owens does play. Maybe this is just the thing to take the distraction away from the rest of the team so they can concentrate on kicking NE butts. Let TO do all the interviews.

besides RAYMOND is on Philly +7

I hope the moneyline goes higher.

lots of time though. Lots can happen between now and Super Bowl Sunday.

 

[AnkAnk]

Keep us updated Hitman - THANKS!

 

[WINKY7]

Thanks Hitman see you next year and good luck on your pick. I'm on NE -7 and Under 48

 

[THE HITMAN]

The Hammer has said he likes the under at 48..........will take it at 47, also.
More later as I get it.

 

[bej0101]

winky7..like the calls :mj14:

 

[THE HITMAN]

I'm not sure if Hank is wavering a bit with the line up to -7 (& an occasional 7.5). He is undecided as of now.........but trying very hard to make a case for NE, as he thinks they have ripped through 2 very good teams. He is waiting to hear further on the health of T Owens & R Seymore. The under is still a play.

As for me, I do like the under. I base this largely on the premise of two really good defenses being involved. The line seems high to me for a game where both teams have that credential. I have some at 48 and think it will go up a touch rather than slide down. I have some NE at -3, -3.5 and -5.5. This is from weeks-ago bets when the action was still AFC vs NFC. I am not sure if I will add to that if it drops to 6 or if I will hedge some if it rises to 7.5 (or more)
More later.
I am not a big fan of teasers, but MVP is offering vig free, so I teased NE -1 & Under 54.

 

[AnkAnk]

Hitman - congrats on getting such low lines. You never know what is going to happen but I would love those lines. How do you get Hammerin Hank insight - does he have a radio show? Is there a way I can see if I can get his radio show (or whatever) here? Thanks!

 

[THE HITMAN]

Ank......yeh, I'm pleased with those lines now. The -3 was from a couple of months ago. Funny thing, I went to put in another unit that next morning and after being -3 for what seemed to be forever, it was -3.5 ! A bit of bad timing on my part.It started to take off quickly right after that, but I did catch some at -3.5 and a bit more at -5.5. It just seemed to me at the time that the AFC contenders were supremely better than the NFC's. Hank has a radio spot, but is not available online....the station is small and they always say they are working on that, but , sometimes they have all they can do to just keep their website up. Tough for me next year as Hank was always on in the late afternoon, sorta convenient for me. I would rush home from work & catch it . Last week, the station switched him to the early AM because they lost the Howard Stern show. The early AM is really a bad time for me........lots goin on here at that time. And, when I am off for the day, I am always up really really late at night, sorta prohibiting an early morning wakeup. I'll figure out something for next year.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Although Hank is still non -committal on a side, I do expect him to go NE. He is more or less forced to make a pick and I feel like he is not in love with the -7 where it is now. Some of his additional reasons are that he feels they have more playmakers, WR, TE, and he cited their ability to shut down an opponent.

He is very firm on his under play, clearly his more fave of the two at this time.Both defenses have given up very similiar few # of points.
More tomorrow if I get it, if not, well, I guess we wait until ESPN Sunday. He usually gives his pick in the 10:30 segment, but that may change this week, I don't know.

 

[AnkAnk]

Thanks (again) Hitman. I would really appreciate it if you could let me (us) know when the station is available online.

I agree with the under and it looks like the # is now 47.5.

I've played by Vinaterri prop bet big but would like to play a side/total small. I'm thinking under.

Take care and good luck!!!

 

[THE HITMAN]

I'm going with the over FG deals, too, Ank. Can't find V'tieri anywhere at the preferred 7.5 anymore, tho, had to take it at 8.5 (+110 at Infinity). Also, going with Akers over 7.5 (it was even money at Infinity yesterday) and over 3.5 FG for the game (+130 at Infinity earlier & +120 at carib now) and over 4 FG attempts for the game (-110 earlier at Infinity).
Both of these teams play really good red zone defense, so I feel comfortable with the above plays come a high scoring game, low scoring or OT. Not a lot of other props really stick out to me now. I try to find something that seems like it's 50/50 chance at a plus figure. Did play one, tho.........captain calling tails for the coin toss at what is a surprising +145 (Infinity again). If I am not mistaken, NE gets the call and they chose tails last time out against Pitt as a visitor..........seems like they might choose that again and at +145 it is definitely worth the shot.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Hank has made up his mind and is going with NE and a strong vote for the UNDER.

NE-7
Some of his random thoughts;
NE beat 5 teams with losing records, PHIL beat 10.
NE is #3 in red zone defense, PHIL is #8.
Pitt had the best defense until NE got to them
Indy had the best offense until NE got them
Somebody is going to make a mistake.....who is more likely to?(Phil)
In 30 of 38 Super Bowls the winner won by 7 or more.
PHIL isn't that great in nickle & dime coverages & NE has a lot of receivers & better playmakers.
PHIL has not dominated the 4 games they have played this season against 3-4 defenses.

UNDER 47.5 -48
Both teams have given up the same number of points right behind Pitt.
Neither team is prone to giving up the big play
Phil is 13 of 18 to the under this season.

PROPS;
FG over 3.5.........both K are good

NOTE: Both teams rank near the bottom on KO returns. Bethel Johnson is a threat.

Well, that's it guys.........GL to everyone on your plays and HIT a couple of big ones. THE HITMAN

 

[AnkAnk]

Thanks for Hank's final picks. His reasoning makes sense. I might make a small play on New England -4.5 (+105) first half. I REALLY hope my Vinaterri prop comes in. Good luck Hitman!!