Happy New Year!!

[Smitty]

Outback Bowl

south carolina (+4) 2 units. the first thing you always need to look at in bowl games is motivation. i think that's a wash in this game. neither team even made a bowl game last year, and they're playing on new year's day. so then it comes down to who is the better football team. i think sc is better than iowa. they play in a much tougher conference. iowa is very one dimensional on offense. sure, sc hasn't been good running OR throwing the football (it's nice to finally stop hearing about what a genius spurrier is), but that's been against much better defenses than what iowa saw week-in and week-out. i don't think either team will light up the scoreboard, but sc's superior talent should lead to the win (or at least the cover).

 

[Smitty]

Gator Bowl

Gator Bowl

could go either way on this one, but...

fightin' dabos (-1) 1 unit. it must be nice for nebraska to have a real coach again. but i think clemson's motivation to play for coach dabo (really? dabo? who names their kid dabo? i hope it's a family name.) will be the deciding factor today. they finally righted the ship and have been playing like they were expected to at the beginning of the season.

 

[Smitty]

Smitty's Credit Card Bowl

Smitty's Credit Card Bowl

another toss up.

georgia (-9) 1 unit. second battle today between the sec and the big 10. assuming georgia shows up to play, they should dominate this game. sadly, there's not much reason to expect them to show up. but i have to take the better team, just on principle. if you shut down ringer, you shut down michigan state.

 

[Smitty]

Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl

i just hope i'm not betting with my heart here.

penn state (+9) 1 unit. i trusted illinois last year in this game. that was over quickly. i'm hoping a better coach with a better team can hang with the trojans this year. penn state's defense is better than illinois' defense last year, and usc's offense is not as good. obviously psu has the huge motivational edge, but that didn't help the illini last year. i'm putting my faith in joepa to devise a game plan that will keep the nittany lions in the game. the play of darryl clark down the stretch (until the last game) was troubling. he was much better than i expected most of the year, but then the wheels came off against ohio state. and psu doesn't have pat devlin to fall back on any more. if clark struggles or gets hurt on a scramble, psu is sunk.
confidence should not be an issue for psu, as they have a great coach plus they destroyed the only team that beat usc.

under (45) 2 units. dammit, i also played the under in last year's rose bowl and that didn't work out so well. i'm getting deja vu all over again. as i said above, usc's offense is a step below what it's been in recent years. IF psu avoids costly turnovers (they turned it over 13 times all year - only 3 teams had fewer turnovers) and covers kicks, making usc drive the length of the field... their defense should be able to contain the trojans most of the day. and i simply don't see psu having much success on offense.

 

[Smitty]

Orange Bowl

Orange Bowl

favorite play of the day

cincinnati (-2) 3 units. i simply don't think vt is that good, and tyrod taylor is a great athlete who couldn't make an accurate throw to save his life. cincinnati held pat white to 41 yards on 20 carries, and let's face it, white is a better runner than taylor, and much more of a threat to pass the ball. here are taylor's numbers on the season... 57% with 2 TD's & 6 INT's. now take out his two games against furman & western kentucky... and he drops down to 55% with 1 TD & 6 INT's. doesn't sound like the right guy to take advantage of cincinnati's 67th ranked pass defense. vt's rushing offense is ranked 41st in the country, but when you rank them based on yards per rush, they fall to 84th. so they run the ball a lot; they just don't do it particularly well. oh, and cincinnati has the 13th ranked rush defense in the country. really my biggest concern is big plays (turnovers & blocked kicked). cincinnati has a negative turnover margin for the year. virginia tech's only hope in this game is to get a few big turnovers.

oh, and another stat i heard this morning (can this be true?)... the ACC is 0-8 their last 8 BCS bowl games. :scared

strong lean to the under in this game as well.