HARD LOOKS

[BigSlick]

FRESNO ST +16
One game nobody's talking about is Boise St/Fresno St. I have always been on the blue carpet bandwagon, but I think this line is too inflated and based soley on FSU's last two games rather than the quality of their team from top to bottom. Looking back over BSU's schedule, I'm pretty confident in saying that this will be the toughest defense and the best coached team they've played thus far.

BSU has had a defense that plays bend-but-dont-break, relying on turnovers to stem the tide. Well, I think that type of defense plays in FSU's favor - they will take whats given and not make the turnovers that FSU has relied on in the past.

Also like these (and will write them up later unless someone else has touched on my opinions already):

Mich +5
Ok St. +4.5
Toledo 1st Half (waiting on the line)
UF 1st Half (waiting on the line)

 

[bbk]

Like the play; I have been looking at this also; Boise State is the single most overrated team in the country; they were very very lucky to beat Tulsa last week; they dont have any business laying double digits to anyone

 

[bej0101]

bsu is way over rated :cursin:

 

[Master Capper]

Where are you getting Fresno and 16? I was looking at possibly playing them but the best I am finding is 11

 

[Superbear]

Fresno opened +12.5 at Olympic on Sunday night and moved to +12 about an hour later(it's at +9.5 now) Okl St opened +2.5,..went to +3 and is now at +3 to +3.5 at different places

 

[rint]

i got fresno/boise at 10.5 are you still loving the fresno play?
rint

 

[BigSlick]

Sorry guys, 2 errors:

1) typing - I meant to type +14, and accidentally typed 16 - thats what happens when you're typing with a sandwich in your hand.

2) old numbers - printed out the lines from allstarsportsbook.com on Monday and haven't looked back at their lines since then. I expected the line to drop to, at the lowest, +12...

needless to say, I'm pretty surprised the line is at 9.5. - looking at the lives lines for pinnacle, it looks like it has had some major action on FSU even though its not a 'public game' (whatever the hell that is.

That being said, I still like the play A LOT (the line movement justifies my position), just wont play as heavy....

I'll probably buy it up to +10 and play the ML for a modest amount.

sorry for the confusion - good luck

 

[BigSlick]

WRITE-UP CONT....

WRITE-UP CONT....

UF 1st 1/2: -13

Yes, I'm a homer (went to school and worked for th UAA), but I know when to back off UF and when to drop the hammer:

MSU is averaging 12.5 points a game (7, 14, 7 -Maine, 0, 13-Vandy, 13-UAB).

The only 2 quality teams they've played, Auburn and LSU, hung 43 and 51 on them respectively.

MSU has conceeded the year and decided to play TF (mostly for recruiting purposes and getting PT for next year) rather than the best athletes.

Croomer's offense is a true West Coast offense and just cant be picked up by college kids in 9 months - too detailed, too much lingo and too reliant on timing - see Nebraska and ND (ND has already dumbed-down their offense, hence the relative success). The problem with their offense is evident in the fact that their starting QB only has 500 yards passing so far!

If you want to beat UF, you have to be able to throw on them to take advantage of their terrible secondary - UF cant hold leads under the peckerwood Zook and MSU can't put up the offense to do it.

As I said last week, UF is in the midst of their 7th straight game AND DOESNT HAVE AN OFF WEEK ALL YEAR LONG (due to hurricanes). UF will continue to work on their chemistry problems in the first half (thereby running up a score of around 24-3) before turning the game over to Freshmen in the 2nd half to (a) rest the starters and (b) give the young guys some much needed PT.

Since the f'up on the FSU/BSU line, this will probably be my biggest play of Saturday

 

[pt1gard]

best line ive seen anywhere has been 11 on boise st (i saw initial line and it was 10) .. and fresno has played like crap since they beat 2 crummy teams: k-st and uw ...

be careful, Id go Boise st on tease if I played it at all ...

gl
gregg

 

[taoist]

...line opened at 10' by my numbers and I haven't seen anything over 11 either. GL though...maybe you have a really friendly local....


edit: ...by the way, Mich opened at 4' by my numbers and Ok St. opened at 2'....

 

[buddy]

agree with ptgard1 here.

think this one falls very close to the number.

no play for moi.