The books will give you a hint--look at their juice and limits on diff sports.
Was an article about a year ago that IE put up from a sportsbook on subject--but I can't locate it.
Was in sportsbook section.
The needs of aspiring sharp players are very different. Joe Public wants action and hopes to win, whereas most sharps could care less about the action and bet to ?beat the man? ? some for money, others for the excitement of outsmarting the bookmaker. The above strategy won?t work for someone trying to win long-term, although it will keep you out of trouble.
If you?re an aspiring sharp, you already know what your bankroll is (the amount you are prepared to lose before you would quit betting). The next question to ask is how much should you risk per play? The answer is: it depends.
The number one mistake gamblers make is overestimating their advantage. Conventional wisdom suggests never risking more than 1-3% of your bankroll on a single play. This is good advice if you are betting the NFL/NBA/MLB for example. The information out there and the volume of betting make these markets deadly accurate (unless you are playing into opening numbers early).
Instead of firing bombs on these sports, a mid-sized player (with a bankroll from $1,000-$50,000) would be better off price-shopping and promotion hustling than handicapping these giants. If you hit the bonuses, free half-points and stale numbers, you can almost guarantee a year-end profit without picking a single game.
Another mistake bettors make is being timid when hitting small markets. Whereas 1-3% risked might be a good rule for pro sports, the rule for props and niche markets should be ?How much will they take?? If you analyze in depth a prop or obscure market and think you have a 10% edge, there?s a good chance you probably do.
Similarly, college sports and areas with no large following provide great opportunities as long as you become an expert in that particular area. If you?re an expert on Portugal Liga TMN basketball or a Winter sports specialist with a strong opinion on Saturday?s Men?s 1000m final in short track skating at the Olympics , your estimates of high advantages could be correct and justify 5% or higher plays.
Knowing what percent of bets a sharp wins will not tell you much ? a player could easily win 55% of the time in baseball and still be a long-term loser. Alternatively, they could win 15% of the time and be a winner depending on the odds and the prices they play.
When we evaluate players and handicappers we look at two things: their win/loss record and whether they consistently get the best of the number (the market moves agree with their selections). A handicapper who is 55-45 on the year, but is always on the right side of line moves is far more dangerous than a capper at 15-5 with no market agreement.
Despite what many handicappers claim, on major league sports no one person ever consistently holds more than 5-6% long-term, although syndicates can do slightly better than this. Only a small fraction of players are sharp and even they do not win every year. Outside the major pro sports, some of our best players hold 15%.
As to playing high volume or being very selective, different players use different approaches. The full-time professionals tend to be volume players, whereas the ?weekend warrior? sharps with normal 40-hour jobs are more selective.
