Harmon/Mejia Experiment

BASON

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Harmon: Last week was a disaster, he was 1-9, which brings his two week total to 6-12. As I mentioned last week his numbers place too much value on weaker teams in larger conferences and on strength of schedule. I think this has been adjusted somewhat, but this weeks picks are very interesting. They are (remember, recommended plays are where the predicted score is more than 10 points off the line, the line differential is in ()):

Bowling Green-14 (12)
Colorado+6.5 (10.5)
Nevada+17.5 (19.5)
New Mex St+3.5 (11.5)
Rice-13.5 (12.5)
TN+12.5 (15.5)
West Mich+14 (19)

He has 5 outright dog winners, two of which are double digit underdogs and another is TN on the road. Can't understand how he has W. Mich as a 5 point outright winner (mejia has toledo by 18), especially as well as Toledo has been playing lately, and he has TN as a 3 point winner on the road (mejia has GA by 11).

Mejia: In the first week of tracking he went 5-4. I continue to think his numbers are stronger than Harmon, but he will predict some bigger numbers as this weeks games will show. His picks are:

Northwestern-11 (11)
MD-11.5 (12.5)
Kansas+2.5 (12.5)
Rice-13.5 (31.5)
New Mex St+3.5 (14.5)
Miami OH-19.5 (11.5)
Bowling Green-14 (21)
Texas+7 (15)
BYU-10.5 (13.5)

The Rice game really stands out with a 31 point differential (he has them winning by 45 points). Bowling Green is also big and also a Harmon play. MD was close to being a Harmon play also, and one I personally like. He has Texas winning by 8, another one I like.

Again this exercise is just for fun, I am not recommending these plays, but maybe we can find some trends that work. Personally, just like last week, I think the Mejia plays are stronger than Harmon.

I will likely be on MD (strongest play), TX and Rice. Leaning towards Kansas, though many respectable cappers on K St. I like Northwestern, but I am a little concerned about a let down after last week.

Not sure about Bowling Green since Gman loves Central Michigan.

Good Luck!
 

Howie's Hot

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Sounds like not much has changed with Harmon...I think there are a number of posters here that could do his job...he must have pictures of someone to keep his job...

GL
How
 

Irish

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Looks like your thesis is coming along quite smashingly! BUT I HAVE COLORADO, N'WESTERN AND KANSAS (1-9 last week :scared )!!!!! :banghead:
Good luck to you this weekend

Cheers
Irish
 

BASON

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Thanks Irish and Okie.

Agree Howie, hopefully he sucks again this week so he becomes a good go against play.

I am really starting to like Kansas this week, also doing a small play on the UVA Ov. UVA will score and they are a little weaker in the scondary this week, so I think Clemson will put some points on the Board.

Good Luck
 

djv

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Harmon still talkes like he does well many times in the past. At one time some folks would go against his biggest plays. And would win. Then he like so many started by chance or what ever to hit about 50/50 so they would always pay the juice. But now it looks like he's way wrong again. Could be time to go aginst and make some dow. Just shows some work and tracking could pay off even if it's reverse thinking.
 

Baalthus

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Play Mejia's dogs IF he has them winning outright. Hitting about a 90% clip when he picks a dog to win - take the points.
 

Baalthus

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Mejia's dogs to win this week:

Wisconsin +3.5
Kansas +3
Kentucky +6
Texas +7
North Texas +1.5
 
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