Love NE here, but all week have noticed at OLY the ML is a good bit short of what a -7 line should be. Anyone else noticed this?
Has the light NE ML caught anyone elses attention?
- Thread starter UT-Longhorn
- Start date
i think it seems about right, its usually around -280 to -300 for a line of 7 right? maybe a little low but nothing odd.
HoopsGuru said:
no, actually its about 50 cents light, being an NFL -7 line it should be -330 or thereabouts.
PRO AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL
MONEY LINE CONVERSION CHART
---------------------------
FAVORED BY NFL MONEYLINE COLLEGE MONEYLINE
---------- ------------- -----------------
2 -130/+110 -130/+110
2? -140/+120 -140/+120
3 -155/+135 -155/+135
3? -175/+155 -175/+165
4 -200/+170 -185/+165
4? -220/+180 -200/+170
5 or 5? -240/+190 -220/+180
6 -270/+210 -240/+190
6? -300/+220 -270/+210
7 -330/+250 -300/+220
7?, 8 or 8? -360/+280 -330/+250
9 or 9? -400/+300 -360/+280
10 -450/+325 -400/+300
11 -550/+375 -450/+325
12 -600/+400 -500/+350
13 -650/+450 -550/+375
THE ABOVE INFORMATION IS WHAT CASINOS IN
LAS VEGAS USE TO CONVERT A POINT SPREAD TO
A MONEY LINE (IN GENERAL)
It has seemed to me that in the past that the takeback on the dog is usually a liitle light in the Super Bowl. One possible explanation is that a "touristy" type bettor that bets on the SB doesn't want to win "only" 100 for his 110 risked. Instead he's willing to bet that the dog can win outright and really make some $$$, say, 2 or 3:1.
Back when th 49ers were 18 1/2 point faves over the Chargers they were bet down to -650 which would usually equate to a 13 point favorite.
Just one possible explanation. I think if you check back you can always get a "relatively" pretty good deal on the moneyline fave in the SB.
Good luck.
Back when th 49ers were 18 1/2 point faves over the Chargers they were bet down to -650 which would usually equate to a 13 point favorite.
Just one possible explanation. I think if you check back you can always get a "relatively" pretty good deal on the moneyline fave in the SB.
Good luck.
yeh, I 've been watching that also. It is definitely on the light side. RRC explanation is interesting & it may be on the right track. Just to note: Oly is usually one of the last ones to change their lines........vs. let's say, Pinnacle, who cahanges every few minutes.
played this at -250 with a local. he dropped the juice to encourage bigger action. i bit. probably ne will play like $hit tomorrow. 
Arne Lang in his 1992 book, Sports Betting 101, suggests the best value in Superbowl betting is the favorite ML...for the same reasons rrc stated.
Personally, like the Pats and willing to lay the 7 for better ROI.
Good luck!
SC
Personally, like the Pats and willing to lay the 7 for better ROI.
Good luck!
SC
hey...was wondering the same thing couple weeks ago...last years ML was -230...I took ML Pats -230 and Carolina +7 and hit both...thinking about doing the same this year...what you guys think?
yup...I remember cuz I hit it big....had 9200 ML and 4k on +7...not off by too much tonight...-250 on sportsbook
