posting these now, because i don't know if i'll get another chance before the game on wednesday.
i finally lost a bowl game with boise the other night. usually when i have that first loss, the regression to the means begins. fading these plays is probably a good idea.
Hawaii Bowl
fresno (-12) 2 units. i really like the bulldogs here. my biggest concern is the poor track record in bowl games of coaches in their first year with the team. i already forgot who posted this (sorry!), but first-year college football coaches are just 39-67-2 ATS in bowl games since 1990, including arizona and toledo this year. that said, fresno had a great year, going 11-1 ATS. after not playing in a bowl game last year, i think there's a huge motivational edge for the bulldogs tonight. smu got a big bowl win last year, easily handling pitt.
the other big factor - garrett gilbert. obviously in june jones' offense, the qb is huge. well, gilbert only threw 14 TDs this year and 13 INTs. that's horrible for a june jones offense (it's pretty bad in any offense). the last 5 games, gilbert has improved, throwing 3 TDs and 0 INTs. however, that was against memphis (76th ranked pass defense, 87th in INTs), UCF (42nd and 56th), southern miss (43rd and 111th), rice (82nd and 67th) and tulsa (57th and 67th). now he's facing fresno, which is ranked 4th in the country in pass defense, allowing 163 yards/game, and 4th in INTs, picking off 20 passes. they also lead the country in INT percentage, intercepting 5.67% of the passes thrown against them. there are only 2 other teams over 5%. SMU played one of them (TCU). gilbert threw 5 INTs against TCU. i'm certainly not comparing fresno's defense to tcu's defense overall, but fresno has shown the same ability to take away the ball, and they're going against a qb with a strong penchant for completing passes to the other team.
i finally lost a bowl game with boise the other night. usually when i have that first loss, the regression to the means begins. fading these plays is probably a good idea.
Hawaii Bowl
fresno (-12) 2 units. i really like the bulldogs here. my biggest concern is the poor track record in bowl games of coaches in their first year with the team. i already forgot who posted this (sorry!), but first-year college football coaches are just 39-67-2 ATS in bowl games since 1990, including arizona and toledo this year. that said, fresno had a great year, going 11-1 ATS. after not playing in a bowl game last year, i think there's a huge motivational edge for the bulldogs tonight. smu got a big bowl win last year, easily handling pitt.
the other big factor - garrett gilbert. obviously in june jones' offense, the qb is huge. well, gilbert only threw 14 TDs this year and 13 INTs. that's horrible for a june jones offense (it's pretty bad in any offense). the last 5 games, gilbert has improved, throwing 3 TDs and 0 INTs. however, that was against memphis (76th ranked pass defense, 87th in INTs), UCF (42nd and 56th), southern miss (43rd and 111th), rice (82nd and 67th) and tulsa (57th and 67th). now he's facing fresno, which is ranked 4th in the country in pass defense, allowing 163 yards/game, and 4th in INTs, picking off 20 passes. they also lead the country in INT percentage, intercepting 5.67% of the passes thrown against them. there are only 2 other teams over 5%. SMU played one of them (TCU). gilbert threw 5 INTs against TCU. i'm certainly not comparing fresno's defense to tcu's defense overall, but fresno has shown the same ability to take away the ball, and they're going against a qb with a strong penchant for completing passes to the other team.
