Golden Knights have edge over Wolf PackScouts, Inc.
A pair of newcomers will be participating in this year's Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. Central Florida is making its bowl debut, while Nevada's last postseason appearance came in 1996. Watch out for Central Florida's Joe Burnett, who could be the difference-maker against the Wolf Pack.
Nevada Offense vs. Central Florida Defense
Nevada frequently lines up in a shotgun set with QB Jeff Rowe lined up about four yards behind the center and RB B.J. Mitchell lined up about three yards behind Rowe. It allows Rowe to scan the field so he can make quicker decisions and it still allows Mitchell to build up some steam before taking the hand off.
The Wolf Pack uses the run to set up the pass. While he doesn't have breakaway speed, Mitchell is quick and he runs hard. He should be productive enough to set up the play-action package and help keep the Golden Knight's front four on its heels when Rowe drops back to pass. It helps that backup RB Robert Hubbard will rotate into the game at times, as that depth allows Nevada to show a strong commitment to the run. Balance and keeping the Golden Knights' pass rush on its heels is important because Rowe will be working against a pass defense that has eighteen interceptions this year. He needs enough time to make sound decisions and enough space to step into his throws.
Central Florida Offense vs. Nevada Defense
Central Florida's offense is run-heavy and it features plenty of two-tight end sets. He doesn't break a lot of long runs, but the Golden Knights don't need a lot of big plays from RB Kevin Smith. They need Smith to help them extend drives by consistently picking up three-to four yards per carry. He is a tough runner that fights for yards after contact, making him a good fit for the scheme. That doesn't bode well for a Nevada run defense that has been average at best.
The ability of QB Steven Moffett to handle the different looks the Wolf Pack throws at him in pass situations will play a big role in the outcome of this game. Nevada likes to line up in three-man fronts and bring pressure from different areas of the field. It also does an excellent job of bluffing the blitz and moving defenders around before the snap, which forces the quarterback and pass protection to adjust on the fly. If Moffett gets rid of the ball before he identifies the coverage, he could make a costly mistake that results in a turnover.
Special Teams
Nevada PK Brett Jaekle is somewhat inconsistent but he has connected on 12 of his 15 field goal attempts and he has the leg strength to connect on the occasional long-range field goal. P Justin Bergendahl has had a strong year, averaging 41.1 yards per punt and placing 13 of his 51 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
Central Florida PR Joe Burnett holds the school's single-season record for total yardage on punt returns and the school's single-season record for average yards per punt return. He has returned two punts for touchdowns this year and he could provide some more big plays if the Wolf Pack's punt cover unit doesn't play with sound technique and/or wrap up upon contact. It's also worth noting that Burnett has five interceptions this year. Golden Knights PK Matt Prater has a powerful leg and excellent range. P Aaron Horne is averaging 42.5 yards per punt and he's placed 14 of his 49 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
Three Key Individual Matchups
1. Central Florida RB Kevin Smith vs. Nevada MLB Jason DeMars
2. Nevada WR Caleb Spencer vs. Central Florida DC Joe Burnett
3. Nevada T Tony Moll vs. Central Florida LDE Paul Carrington
Scouts' Edge
While this is Central Florida's first bowl game and how its players react to the added pressure of playing in the postseason remains to be seen, the Golden Knights should still get the win. Their run defense is strong enough to slow Mitchell and Hubbard down and they have the playmakers in the secondary to produce a couple of critical turnovers when Nevada drops back to pass. Central Florida's grind-it-out offensive approach won't be pretty but it should be effective enough to wear down the Wolf Pack front seven and take pressure off Moffett. In addition, look for Burnett to give the offense quality starting field position or points, whether it's returning an interception or a punt.
Prediction: Central Florida 30, Nevada 27
Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN Insider.
A pair of newcomers will be participating in this year's Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. Central Florida is making its bowl debut, while Nevada's last postseason appearance came in 1996. Watch out for Central Florida's Joe Burnett, who could be the difference-maker against the Wolf Pack.
Nevada Offense vs. Central Florida Defense
Nevada frequently lines up in a shotgun set with QB Jeff Rowe lined up about four yards behind the center and RB B.J. Mitchell lined up about three yards behind Rowe. It allows Rowe to scan the field so he can make quicker decisions and it still allows Mitchell to build up some steam before taking the hand off.
The Wolf Pack uses the run to set up the pass. While he doesn't have breakaway speed, Mitchell is quick and he runs hard. He should be productive enough to set up the play-action package and help keep the Golden Knight's front four on its heels when Rowe drops back to pass. It helps that backup RB Robert Hubbard will rotate into the game at times, as that depth allows Nevada to show a strong commitment to the run. Balance and keeping the Golden Knights' pass rush on its heels is important because Rowe will be working against a pass defense that has eighteen interceptions this year. He needs enough time to make sound decisions and enough space to step into his throws.
Central Florida Offense vs. Nevada Defense
Central Florida's offense is run-heavy and it features plenty of two-tight end sets. He doesn't break a lot of long runs, but the Golden Knights don't need a lot of big plays from RB Kevin Smith. They need Smith to help them extend drives by consistently picking up three-to four yards per carry. He is a tough runner that fights for yards after contact, making him a good fit for the scheme. That doesn't bode well for a Nevada run defense that has been average at best.
The ability of QB Steven Moffett to handle the different looks the Wolf Pack throws at him in pass situations will play a big role in the outcome of this game. Nevada likes to line up in three-man fronts and bring pressure from different areas of the field. It also does an excellent job of bluffing the blitz and moving defenders around before the snap, which forces the quarterback and pass protection to adjust on the fly. If Moffett gets rid of the ball before he identifies the coverage, he could make a costly mistake that results in a turnover.
Special Teams
Nevada PK Brett Jaekle is somewhat inconsistent but he has connected on 12 of his 15 field goal attempts and he has the leg strength to connect on the occasional long-range field goal. P Justin Bergendahl has had a strong year, averaging 41.1 yards per punt and placing 13 of his 51 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
Central Florida PR Joe Burnett holds the school's single-season record for total yardage on punt returns and the school's single-season record for average yards per punt return. He has returned two punts for touchdowns this year and he could provide some more big plays if the Wolf Pack's punt cover unit doesn't play with sound technique and/or wrap up upon contact. It's also worth noting that Burnett has five interceptions this year. Golden Knights PK Matt Prater has a powerful leg and excellent range. P Aaron Horne is averaging 42.5 yards per punt and he's placed 14 of his 49 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
Three Key Individual Matchups
1. Central Florida RB Kevin Smith vs. Nevada MLB Jason DeMars
2. Nevada WR Caleb Spencer vs. Central Florida DC Joe Burnett
3. Nevada T Tony Moll vs. Central Florida LDE Paul Carrington
Scouts' Edge
While this is Central Florida's first bowl game and how its players react to the added pressure of playing in the postseason remains to be seen, the Golden Knights should still get the win. Their run defense is strong enough to slow Mitchell and Hubbard down and they have the playmakers in the secondary to produce a couple of critical turnovers when Nevada drops back to pass. Central Florida's grind-it-out offensive approach won't be pretty but it should be effective enough to wear down the Wolf Pack front seven and take pressure off Moffett. In addition, look for Burnett to give the offense quality starting field position or points, whether it's returning an interception or a punt.
Prediction: Central Florida 30, Nevada 27
Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN Insider.
