Hey, Merry Christmas, everyone!
It feels like every year Hawai'i is bowl-eligible, they end up in... the Hawai'i Bowl. Go figure.
Nick Rolovich, who probably wishes he never left Hawai'i for the Washington St job a few years ago, returns to Oahu as the interim HC for Cal. He is 2-1 in Bowl games. Not surprisingly, all 3 were... the Hawai'i Bowl.
Looks like maybe everyone on Cal is playing. CB Masses, who led the team with 5 INTs (nobody else had more than 1), is listed as a potential opt-out, but probable to play. Leading tackler Cade Uluave is also listed as a possible opt-out, but even more likely to play. Starting TE (double checks the name....) Mason Mini is listed as questionable with an injury. He missed the finale against SMU. In fact, Cal doesn't have a healthy TE who has had a catch this year. But that didn't slow them down when they put up 38 in their upset over SMU. Hawai'i's only notable absence is leading receiver Jackson Harris, who was their big-play guy with just under 20 yards/catch. Nobody else averaged more than 11.4.
Cal really relies on the passing game (78% of their total yards). They only average 3.5 yards/carry (with sacks removed). True Freshman QB Sagapolutele, who is from Hawai'i, had an ok season, with 17 TDs and 9 INTs, but only averaged 6.9 yards/att. He was better their final 3 games, which included upset wins over Louisville and SMU. In those games, he completed 94 of 136 for 922 yards with 6 TDs and 0 INTs. Hawai'i gives up 7.4 yards/att (82nd in the country).
Hawai'i is also fairly pass-heavy, as they get 74% of their yards through the air. Freshman Micah Alejado had a solid season, averaging 7.4/att with 21 TDs and 9 INTs. Interestingly though, even with only 12 more pass attempts at home, he threw twice as many INTs (6) at home vs on the road (3) and took 16 of his 25 sacks at home. Cal is strong defensively against the pass, allowing 6.4 yards/att (28th in the country). Assuming CB Masses plays (he has NFL ambitions), Cal could make it tough on the Hawai'i offense. The Bears are vulnerable to the run. They allow 4.77 yards/carry (110th in the country). But Hawai'i averages a pedestrian 4.5 yards/carry. Their top 2 guys (Landon Sims & Cam Barfield) average 4.6 and 4.8, respectively. *Quick side note. Obviously, your first thought when you read that was "Landon Sims? But he's the 3rd string QB for Wyoming! But, nope, different Landon Sims. Go figure.* Anyway, Sims only has 9 carries the last 2 games, and I can't find any injury info, so I'm assuming Barfield is now the starter.
Hawai'i's kicking game is terrific. Matsuzawa made 25 of 26 FGs. Cal's kicking game is... what's the opposite of solid?... liquid. Cal's kicking game is liquid. Hmmm... that doesn't sound right. Anyway, Chase Meyer is still kicking XPs and, near as I can tell, FGs under 40 yards, where he's 6-of-6. But he struggled, only making 3-of-6 from 40+, so freshman Abram Murray is taking the longer kicks now. All his kicks are 40+ and he's 4-of-5 with a long of 49, but he missed his only attempt in their last game.
It's Hawai'i, so there could be some wind issues. They're expecting winds in the mid-teens, with gusts in the mid-20's all game. Nothing crazy, but enough to possibly be a factor.
This is Hawai'i's first bowl game since 2020. Timmy Chang took over in 2022. Cal hasn't won a bowl game since 2019.
Cal had a roller coaster finish to their season. They had a big upset win at Louisville. Then, after their bye, they laid an egg against rival Stanford, losing 31-10. They gave up 2 fumble return TDs and lost another fumble at their own 20, which led to another TD. So, of course, in their season finale they beat SMU, who was playing for a trip to the ACC title game.
The Hawai'i Bowl is always tough. In general, I like betting against bowl teams that are home. But when the opponent got a trip to Hawai'i... you never know where their head is at. Both teams should be fairly motivated to get a bowl win. I'm going with the assumption that Cal is ready.
Cal (ML) 2.2 to win 2
Parlay Cal +4.5/Under 55.5 2 to win 2.4
It feels like every year Hawai'i is bowl-eligible, they end up in... the Hawai'i Bowl. Go figure.
Nick Rolovich, who probably wishes he never left Hawai'i for the Washington St job a few years ago, returns to Oahu as the interim HC for Cal. He is 2-1 in Bowl games. Not surprisingly, all 3 were... the Hawai'i Bowl.
Looks like maybe everyone on Cal is playing. CB Masses, who led the team with 5 INTs (nobody else had more than 1), is listed as a potential opt-out, but probable to play. Leading tackler Cade Uluave is also listed as a possible opt-out, but even more likely to play. Starting TE (double checks the name....) Mason Mini is listed as questionable with an injury. He missed the finale against SMU. In fact, Cal doesn't have a healthy TE who has had a catch this year. But that didn't slow them down when they put up 38 in their upset over SMU. Hawai'i's only notable absence is leading receiver Jackson Harris, who was their big-play guy with just under 20 yards/catch. Nobody else averaged more than 11.4.
Cal really relies on the passing game (78% of their total yards). They only average 3.5 yards/carry (with sacks removed). True Freshman QB Sagapolutele, who is from Hawai'i, had an ok season, with 17 TDs and 9 INTs, but only averaged 6.9 yards/att. He was better their final 3 games, which included upset wins over Louisville and SMU. In those games, he completed 94 of 136 for 922 yards with 6 TDs and 0 INTs. Hawai'i gives up 7.4 yards/att (82nd in the country).
Hawai'i is also fairly pass-heavy, as they get 74% of their yards through the air. Freshman Micah Alejado had a solid season, averaging 7.4/att with 21 TDs and 9 INTs. Interestingly though, even with only 12 more pass attempts at home, he threw twice as many INTs (6) at home vs on the road (3) and took 16 of his 25 sacks at home. Cal is strong defensively against the pass, allowing 6.4 yards/att (28th in the country). Assuming CB Masses plays (he has NFL ambitions), Cal could make it tough on the Hawai'i offense. The Bears are vulnerable to the run. They allow 4.77 yards/carry (110th in the country). But Hawai'i averages a pedestrian 4.5 yards/carry. Their top 2 guys (Landon Sims & Cam Barfield) average 4.6 and 4.8, respectively. *Quick side note. Obviously, your first thought when you read that was "Landon Sims? But he's the 3rd string QB for Wyoming! But, nope, different Landon Sims. Go figure.* Anyway, Sims only has 9 carries the last 2 games, and I can't find any injury info, so I'm assuming Barfield is now the starter.
Hawai'i's kicking game is terrific. Matsuzawa made 25 of 26 FGs. Cal's kicking game is... what's the opposite of solid?... liquid. Cal's kicking game is liquid. Hmmm... that doesn't sound right. Anyway, Chase Meyer is still kicking XPs and, near as I can tell, FGs under 40 yards, where he's 6-of-6. But he struggled, only making 3-of-6 from 40+, so freshman Abram Murray is taking the longer kicks now. All his kicks are 40+ and he's 4-of-5 with a long of 49, but he missed his only attempt in their last game.
It's Hawai'i, so there could be some wind issues. They're expecting winds in the mid-teens, with gusts in the mid-20's all game. Nothing crazy, but enough to possibly be a factor.
This is Hawai'i's first bowl game since 2020. Timmy Chang took over in 2022. Cal hasn't won a bowl game since 2019.
Cal had a roller coaster finish to their season. They had a big upset win at Louisville. Then, after their bye, they laid an egg against rival Stanford, losing 31-10. They gave up 2 fumble return TDs and lost another fumble at their own 20, which led to another TD. So, of course, in their season finale they beat SMU, who was playing for a trip to the ACC title game.
The Hawai'i Bowl is always tough. In general, I like betting against bowl teams that are home. But when the opponent got a trip to Hawai'i... you never know where their head is at. Both teams should be fairly motivated to get a bowl win. I'm going with the assumption that Cal is ready.
Cal (ML) 2.2 to win 2
Parlay Cal +4.5/Under 55.5 2 to win 2.4
