Nice 2-0 sweep last night with both totals coming in by nearly two touchdowns.
One play tonight:
<B>4* Hawaii(+1.5)</B> Much is being made of Fresno's home record of late winning I think 23 of their last 24 games at home SU, but they have huge matchup problems here. Hawaii runs 4 WR sets on every play which basically forces the defense into dime packages on every down. This is especially troubling for a team like Fresno who has not only allowed 243 yards per game on 8.4 yards per pass attempt and also allows 4.1 yards per rush against standard offenses and now have to face a team that averages 5.7 yards per rush and 8.6 yards per pass attempt, 384 yards passing and 512 yards overall and have to try to stop them with all 4 cornerbacks banged up. Fresno will attempt to run the ball to keep the Hawaii offense off the field, but can they? They average only 3.3 yards per rush on the year and Hawaii allows just 3.6 yards per rush. Hawaii averages 73 yards more per game than their opponents defensive average and allows 23 yards less than their opponents average on offense. Fresno averages 22 yards less on offense than opponents defensive average and allows 45 yards more!! Hawaii has outgained every opponent this season and 3 of the last 4 opponents by 205 yards or more. Fresno has been outgained in every game but two this year(+70 vs SMU, and +1 vs Rice). In games vs like opposition, Hawaii outgained Boise by 38 yards while Fresno was outgained by 281, and against SMU, Hawaii outyarded them by 249 while Fresno had just a 70 yard advantage. Fresno is just 3-7 ATS vs winning teams the last 3 seasons and Hawaii 4-0 ATS on grass the last 3 seasons. This game looks like a mismatch and we get value due to the past Fresno success at home. Much is also being made of Bass and Owens being out and the injury to Bass is not a new injury, in fact he missed each of the last three games including the game against Boise when Hawaii outgained them, although coming up on the short end of the scoreboard and he had only had 26 carries on the season anyway. West is averaging 7.1 yards per rush on 27 carries and is very capable and quick. Owens missed the last game as well and this team is very deep with four other receivers who have over 16 receptions on the season so he isn't missed as much as most may think either. When you consider the pass defense of Fresno will have two true freshmen joining the rotation tonight and they haven't recorded a single sack in the last three games, I don't see how they will have a chance to match up with Hawaii's offense. Hawaii also gets starting Defensive End Ala back tonight after missing last game and he leads the team in sacks and tackles for loss.
Good luck all......Bookie
One play tonight:
<B>4* Hawaii(+1.5)</B> Much is being made of Fresno's home record of late winning I think 23 of their last 24 games at home SU, but they have huge matchup problems here. Hawaii runs 4 WR sets on every play which basically forces the defense into dime packages on every down. This is especially troubling for a team like Fresno who has not only allowed 243 yards per game on 8.4 yards per pass attempt and also allows 4.1 yards per rush against standard offenses and now have to face a team that averages 5.7 yards per rush and 8.6 yards per pass attempt, 384 yards passing and 512 yards overall and have to try to stop them with all 4 cornerbacks banged up. Fresno will attempt to run the ball to keep the Hawaii offense off the field, but can they? They average only 3.3 yards per rush on the year and Hawaii allows just 3.6 yards per rush. Hawaii averages 73 yards more per game than their opponents defensive average and allows 23 yards less than their opponents average on offense. Fresno averages 22 yards less on offense than opponents defensive average and allows 45 yards more!! Hawaii has outgained every opponent this season and 3 of the last 4 opponents by 205 yards or more. Fresno has been outgained in every game but two this year(+70 vs SMU, and +1 vs Rice). In games vs like opposition, Hawaii outgained Boise by 38 yards while Fresno was outgained by 281, and against SMU, Hawaii outyarded them by 249 while Fresno had just a 70 yard advantage. Fresno is just 3-7 ATS vs winning teams the last 3 seasons and Hawaii 4-0 ATS on grass the last 3 seasons. This game looks like a mismatch and we get value due to the past Fresno success at home. Much is also being made of Bass and Owens being out and the injury to Bass is not a new injury, in fact he missed each of the last three games including the game against Boise when Hawaii outgained them, although coming up on the short end of the scoreboard and he had only had 26 carries on the season anyway. West is averaging 7.1 yards per rush on 27 carries and is very capable and quick. Owens missed the last game as well and this team is very deep with four other receivers who have over 16 receptions on the season so he isn't missed as much as most may think either. When you consider the pass defense of Fresno will have two true freshmen joining the rotation tonight and they haven't recorded a single sack in the last three games, I don't see how they will have a chance to match up with Hawaii's offense. Hawaii also gets starting Defensive End Ala back tonight after missing last game and he leads the team in sacks and tackles for loss.
Good luck all......Bookie
