I decided to take a look around this forum. After wading around so much worthless crap, I find the intelligent thoughts of Mags. Thank you.
I've spent quite a bit of time looking health reform over, and find it to also be very complex. It seems that trying to take on the entire issue at once is a mistake. Piece meal legislation seems the way to go, yet so many repairs warrant implementing several things at once. Thus, we immediately have an impasse over this issue alone.
From the start, the democrats made a big mistake thinking they could ramrod whatever they wanted without any help from accross the aisle. Although republicans have overblown this issue, it was still wrong and they are paying for it. Then they try outright bribery to get a senate bill. Just as big a mistake, the rebs went on the attack looking like obstructionists - painting the dems too far into a corner. They went to far, and now the Dems will pass a bill out of spite.
People want improvements, overwhelmingly. Yes, 80% are satisfied with what they have now. Unless you work for a saint that absorbs all premium increases, that statistic will be completely reversed in the 2-3 months before this fall's election, maybe sooner. No one will be able to keep up with the 40% increases already across the nation.
How can we get an honest committee of intelligent people together Mags? I think it is probably to late, a bill will be passed soon thanks to terrible performances on both sides of the aisle. Then, the years of work trying to patch something else together to correct all the wrongs.
KCWolf:
Thanks for the kudos - it is much appreciated. I try to add some background on the issues to help people understand, as the vast majority (including the House and Senate) are not close enough to the industry to really understand the big picture. I'm certainly not representing that I am the "be all, end all" on this topic, but I certainly do know more than 99% of the folks in this country on these issues due to my background.
And, to be fair, I must disclose that I have a right leaning slant, so what I do put out there at times may be a bit biased - in Obama's words "Let me make this clear - I am biased".
I do truly believe that every citizen (read that closely - CITIZEN) of this country has the right to be able to purchase health care coverage at a reasonable cost. I also believe that there is a segment of our society that needs help paying for it - which I believe EVERYONE should help pay for as it is for society's good in general. It is NOT right to ask just a few to carry this burden (such as the rich) when this is a "for the good of the country issue".
You ask "can we get an honest committee of intelligent people together". Yes, I do believe that, in theory, that could be possible - bring the right people in the room and accomplish what I've listed above. However, this will not happen under this administration. The will to use the healthcare vehicle to create 2 things make this impossible: 1) a new entitlement program that the Dems can take credit for (this is the overriding motivation, don't kid yourself) and 2) coming in 2nd, but just barely, is the opportunity to dramatically increase the size of government and increased regulation - which is the backbone of Democratic politics.
I found it funny that the Dems on Thursday kept saying how "close" the Repubs were to their bill in terms of "we agree on 80% of this".... The differences are so vast in fundamentals and philosophy, that they will never be in agreement.
1. The role of Gov versus private sector
2. Who should pay for this, and how many should we pay for?
Those are the 2 biggest issues - and #1 will keep any Repub from getting on board.
What is really hurting the Dem's is that by the latest polling, only 25% want this bill passed, 25% want the Gov to start over on this bill, and
50% want Obama to just leave healthcare the way it is now!
So, what do I think will happen (if I was a betting man, which I am :shrug: ):
1. There is a 75% chance that Obama will actually take this bill to the Senate, use reconciliation and pass the bill. He will not allow it to even be voted on unless it is guaranteed to pass (has the votes in his pocket). But this has a good chance of happening - although it will take a long time to get to a vote, as there will be a lot of discussion of what could be included in this portion of the bill (abortion, insurance company regulation likely could not be included as they are not considered budget related). But Biden can override any of this. So Biden (yes, Biden) can put things back in that AREN'T budget related - which will touch off a shit storm. THEN, the amendment process will begin - and there is no limit to the amendment process - which means there likely will be 100's, if not 1000's of amendments. This will likely drag this process out until June or July at a minimum (remember elections are in November - so time is now on the Repubs side).
2. So, let's say it is June or so, and it does pass the Senate on reconcilation. Now it goes to the House. 4-5 months until the elections, and many of the members are already out compaigning by then. It has been said that the bill doesn't even have 200 votes currently in the House (no matter what wacko Pelosi says). I see very little chance this could get though the House at that time - no matter how many threats and arm twisting that Obama does (and don't kid yourself - he has done, and will do things like "your political career is over if you don't vote for this" - of course, it will never be proven - that's how politics works - for BOTH parties).
Even if the bill gets through the House and Senate (again, VERY little chance in my opinion), the Repubs will be set up perfectly for Nov elections - as the process will have drawn out for another 5 months (at least) from now - and people will be really pissed off about it (imagine 90% against the bill, instead of the current 75%).
So, the Repubs political platform will be "elect us and we'll repeal the flawed Dem plan, and put in something that you the Public will actually like".
And if the Dems don't pass something (the likely scenario), the Repubs will campaign on "the Dem's had the wrong approach - let us fix health care incrementally.....
A while ago, DeMint from SC says "Healthcare will be Obama's Waterloo"... people laughed at him then - will he be right? He just may be....
He who laughs last, laughs hardest... .we'll see who that will be - It COULD still be Obama...
Fun times we live in....
