Heat -2????

[JEFF]

Fishy line, very fishy. Heat coming off great road trip and win over Indy as 5pt faves, now only minus 2 versus Cleveland. Yes I realize Cleveland has had their number but doesn' t this line sound low? Is there an injury I havent heard about? Is ZO out?

If there is not any substantial reasoning behind this, I gotta take the CAVS big and close my eyes.

 

[dnuggets]

Miami wins some games and what should they be favored by 8,10? The lines have almost nothing to do with how a team is doing currently more to do with how they have done overall. Also, seeing as how clev is 3-0 in this series this season kinda hard to make miami a bigger fav if a fav at all isnt it?

 

[polecat]

cavs also returning from a road trip where they did not win a game, however played hard. seemed to fade in 2nd half.

heat playing very well now i think; best i have seen all season.

lean to the heat here, i think.

 

[McGain]

Heat are playing their best ball of the season!!

Also the fact that Cavs have had their number this year, makes me feel that the Heat will really be up for this one. The Heat still feel that they have a legitmate shot to make the playoffs. Wheteher that is a reality or not is open for discussion. But the bottom line is if the Heat are going to make a run they have to continue winning, this is a game they have to have. If they Heat do not take care of business tonight, all their mometum is gone.


This a huge game for the Heat!!!

 

[JEFF]

This is the exact kind of game I like to look at. Obviouslt it took some nice late game ball for the CAVS to cover,but this is how I look at it:
When there is a line that looks incredibly obvious, and the fave has covered several games lately, especially a team that hasn't been especially good against the spread, I look the other way.

Maybe I'm not explianing it well enough, but simply put, who in the world looked at that -2 and said "wow, CAVS look good in this spot." No one. That line makes you say, hey the HEAT are really on fire lately and the cavs, well theyre just the cavs and they haven't won in 9 games. How often is Vegas going to give you a gift like that?

Public pushed it up to a nice fat 4.5! Glad you got the win at -1.5 DNUGGS, I gotta sign up at RIO I think. I just thought I'd explain what I meant. Also, i think the lines do have a good deal to do with what teams have done recently.

 

[gsp]

Jeff. this is the kind of game I pass on. Last year, I hit a strech where my pass games went 16-1. Of course I didn't win anything but I didn't lose either. Once in a while I'll play my screwy line of the day award game but usually against the obvious.

 

[JEFF]

16-1 on pass games? Ouch.

16-1 on pass games? Ouch.

I have actually looked at your screwy line awards several times. I just feel like there is such an opportunity to make money looking for the "anti-trap play". Only on really strong-looking traps if that makes any sense. Plus, when the public pounds one of these lines up, like today with miami for -2 to -4.5, I love it.

Imust admit, Chicago looked like a similar type of play today at +3, but I figured with Indy's injuries/struggles it may not be that whacked.

 

[gsp]

Look for screwy lines following a real screwy line that catches most of the betters. Both Mia and Ind were good plays today. I felt that Mia would win that game tonight so -2 was a pass. At 4 it became very appealing but I very seldom change my mind on a play. I was going to play Ind but didn't get my play in. Also Minn o and Dal o. I was so po'd that I just passed on the whole night. Glad I did because I was wrong on all the night games. Good luck tomarrow.

 

[JEFF]

I'm not so sure I understand what you mean "Look for screwy lines following a real screwy line that catches most of the betters. "
You mean for example, get back on Miami if they are favored again but big? Just curious. Your system is certainly more scientific and probably more effective then what I do. Obviously these trap plays aren't all I look at, just a hobby of sorts that makes pretty decent $ I guess.

I felt Miami should win,but when they try to hand it to me on a silver platter like that I like to say no thanks and shove the platter up their :moon: 's

Thanks

 

[JEFF]

GSP...I saw that Miami beat Chic by double digits and immediately thought of what you siad. Is this what you meant by a screwy line after a screwy line that caught most of the bettors? Seems like a prime example.