Addict, I'm leaning to the Mavs in the series, but to be honest it's tough becuase I see thats the side the public favors heavily. Not that they are wrong all the time, but that's not a factor I like going against me. For the series, I don't feel too strongly one way or the other, but its definitely too late to play Mavs for the series, value is gone... if anything, I would have played Dirk to win Finals MVP back when I saw it at +300 around game 2 of the Thunder/Mavs series. Wish I had because that would have been a nice hedge against my Thunder West Champs future bet as well.
Miami is a tough matchup and is certainly a statistical favorite when lining the two teams up, although its not an overwhelming edge. But the reason I lean Dallas is more because of three intangible factors that cannot be extracted from the box score alone: EXPERIENCE, REVENGE and DESPERATION. So despite the Heat having more superstars and being a better team statistically, I'd say its the three above factors that make this series much more of a toss-up.... JMO