Hedge or Not

[gjn23]

anyone follows my posts know i'm generally against hedge's as they're usually a waste; however.

think i might be in a position to hedge some pre-season wagers and was looking for some advice on different options.

300 pitt win afc (10-1) pays 3000
250 pitt win sb (20-1) pays 5000

250 chi win nfc (15-1) pays 3750
200 chi win sb (35-1) pays 7000

also had atl and hou and was REALLY hoping for that atl-chi nfc title matchup and have already lost 950 on those two (had atl same as pitt and hou less than chi)

keep in mind:
usually cant get halftime lines from local bookie i can bet open parlays (add 2nd/3rd teams at a later date)

can make moneyline bets

arent any "limits" however havent ever had the need or desire to find out if i could make a 2500 or so wager (but i think he'd allow it)

he knows i have these wagers AND that i'm a bears fan so i'd be shocked to get a 3.5 line on that game (if it's hovering between 3/3.5) and wouldnt be shocked if he gave me a 3.5 pitt line (if its hovering between 3/3.5).......which in the end, isnt bad for hedging purposes.


any advice and input is appreciated

 

[LDB]

anyone follows my posts know i'm generally against hedge's as they're usually a waste; however.

think i might be in a position to hedge some pre-season wagers and was looking for some advice on different options.

300 pitt win afc (10-1) pays 3000
250 pitt win sb (20-1) pays 5000

250 chi win nfc (15-1) pays 3750
200 chi win sb (35-1) pays 7000

also had atl and hou and was REALLY hoping for that atl-chi nfc title matchup and have already lost 950 on those two (had atl same as pitt and hou less than chi)

keep in mind:
usually cant get halftime lines from local bookie i can bet open parlays (add 2nd/3rd teams at a later date)

can make moneyline bets

arent any "limits" however havent ever had the need or desire to find out if i could make a 2500 or so wager (but i think he'd allow it)

he knows i have these wagers AND that i'm a bears fan so i'd be shocked to get a 3.5 line on that game (if it's hovering between 3/3.5) and wouldnt be shocked if he gave me a 3.5 pitt line (if its hovering between 3/3.5).......which in the end, isnt bad for hedging purposes.


any advice and input is appreciated

I would play GB on the ml to insure money there... I would leave pitt alone, as I think Sanchez will have major problems moving the ball against pitt's d..

hope this helps...

gl in whatever you choose..

 

[WayneWonder]

I would make a ML parlay with GB/NYJ.

This covers you in case both Pittsburgh and Chicago get beat this weekend. In 20 years of wild cards, only ONCE has a 6 seed even made the Super Bowl, so history is on your side.

 

[elmer fudd]

never hedge...

you liked it enough to bet it...

don't give away your winners..

:toast:

 

[UGA12]

Why Hedge:shrug: Just get with sponge and yall hash out the fix before the game and your set:0008

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

Whats wrong with keeping it simple.
play gbay moneyline to win 1500 and that gaurantees you roughly a dime profit either way if gbay wins.


play jets moneyline for 1000 and gaurantess you 1100 if jets win or 2000 if pitt. wins.


or you could tease jets and gbay to 1800-1500
this way you could possibly hit all 3 bets.
if lose tease and hit one lose one of your champ. bets you win 850 if pitt. win or 1600 if bears win.
if both pitt. and bears lose you win 550
or best case pitt and bears win and hit tease you win 8250.




not sure exactly how much your total investment was? including all bets made?

hope for atleast one to win and get into the super bowl with opportunity to hit it real big then.


gluck burgh....

 

[yyz]

I would make a ML parlay with GB/NYJ.

This covers you in case both Pittsburgh and Chicago get beat this weekend. In 20 years of wild cards, only ONCE has a 6 seed even made the Super Bowl, so history is on your side.

I like this option, with a twist:


The Packers are -200, but you can take the Jets +3', rather than take the +170 ML.

That way, you have the "middle" on that wager.

Risk a small amount on this wager, of $500.

If you lose that wager, you have to hit at least one of the $3000 or $3750 wagers.

If you win the consolation wager, it pays back $1400, so you would lose $100 for your seasons effort. (If you hit the "middle" you would make out like a bandit, though.)

Risk more than $500, and you will be making out ok, but cutting in to potential profit of the original wager.

 

[hedgehog]

I would go for the middle without a doubt Jets +3.5 for 750 or 1000

Let it ride on Bears game

 

[oxnardca1]

DAMN U ALL ARE JUST WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY to smart!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

great insights and multi-resolutions

thats what i LOVE about this board

MY TAKE---------------i feel the bears r gonna lose
i would play half of my wager on GB -3 to be on the safe side.
also (if your book has it), play on the packers to win by 1-3 for about a 4 or 5 to 1 payout

 

[Cie]

700 parlay gb -225/jets +170 pays 2050
500 gb -200


Pit and chi win = +5050
pit wins and chi loses = +2550
pit loses and chi wins = +1750
Both lose = +2000

 

[Zamo]

I really Like IE grant and YYZ's posts!!!

Makes most sense.....

Wish you could unload cash in a on-line account and try and catch half time wagers if it presents itself with better odds.

Either way....you are a winner on these pre-season plays so cheers to you!!