Good advice LR...
This is my post I have pasted from my home at evenyourodds....this is my basic philosophy for novice players...
Bored in the hotel room, I will reply to a few emails I have also received about methods of horse racing (it seems we have a lot of lurkers that are still roaming about since the Breeders Cup thread)...
I agree with tm's sentiments that horse racing is a game of profit. If you have made a profit you have done what you set out to do, unless you bet a couple of times a year (then it's about beer and exotics). Most bandwagoners want to win everyday, and I will just tell you right now you are betting the wrong sport. Unlike hoops, football, bases, or hockey, you will not get close to 50% winners day in and day out. But, that can actually work to your advantage. One big ticket can make your day profitable, no matter how poor it had been prior to...
The downfall of most good cappers is the overuse of ML favorites. Unfortunately for these players the favorites win the race at around a 30% clip...
For example: You bet 10 races. You bet $2 on all the favorites at an average of 2-1. If we take the average 30% you hit 3 races, and make a $6 return on $20, and you would have to hit 9 out of 10 races to break even. The sad part is, $2 is the lowest bet...I have seen people at the track betting $50 on a 3-5 horse..to me, this is not very smart.
Another example: You bet 10 races. You bet $2 on 10 horses with 5-1 odds. It takes very few of these to get your $20 back, anything after that is PROFIT. Plus, you have better value on the PLACE and SHOW pools...so you can capitalize on 2nd and 3rd place finishes, where you could not with the overbet favorite returning 2.10 at show. And with anything over 5-1, you are on cruise control....
As far as exotic bets, I love exactas. I can't help myself, I used to pay rent with them. A friend of mine and I used to bet 3 horse boxes all day long. This is not very smart either....I remember one year at Oaklawn I had the winner in 8 of 10 races and ended up breaking even....why? I bet exactas all day....and could not hit both halves every race. If I would have gone with my winner across the board I would have made a killing. For die hard exacta players I would suggest 1 three horse box a day, and if you have to bet anymore bet 2 horse boxes....
If you are betting on a consistent basis, this is the best approach IMO....
Well, that's my long winded rant....anybody else want to pick up where I left off?
GO HOGS
SLEW
[This message has been edited by SeattleSlew (edited 02-17-2001).]
