Help with a Hedge

[BigOG]

I'm a lurker who has been reading the insight of the many great posters on here for about 5 years...

I originally posted this is the general discussion area, but apparently, this is a more appropriate spot.

I have a ticket on the Twins to win the ALCS at 40-1. The bet is 1600 to return 65,600. I've been trying to determine the best way to lay some of the ticket off and am really struggling with finding a scenario that offers much profit.

The twins are currently about +330 to win the ALCS, pending on which book you look at, which should mean, the ticket should be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 21-22k. correct?

What is the best way to extract this money? Is it best to put wagers in on all three of the other teams in the running? Or, is it better to bet on the team the twins play in the divisional series (probably the yankees), and then bet on the winner of the other series right before the ALCS starts? What is the numerical breakdown for each scenario?

It seems challenging, if not impossible, to determine the correct amount to bet on the twins first round opponent that offers the most value based on the assumed line(?) of the next series.

Also, having enough funds to hedge is not an issue, though finding a place to take large futures wagers at a good price may be.

I obviously am confused and would really appreciate an analysis and any input anyone can offer.

Thanks for your help

 

[PharoahUB]

not a bad situation to find yourself in, huh?


keep your eye on pinnacle when the playoff teams are set. they often have future bets for playoffs like will blank team win the ALCS? you can bet yes or no. in your case you'd bet no for an amount at your discretion.

 

[alb]

Boy if Liriano was playing, you'd be looking at a winner.......that's not saying they won't still win. Bank on them playing the A's first round (should get about +120 on A's)......hedge to win your money back.......then hedge for a little profit once they play the Yanks (about -200) or Tigers (about +135).....then let it ride against the Mets!

 

[jasperjones]

what odds are you getting on each team to win the alcs?

Yanks?
Tigers?
A's?

 

[teddy_kgb]

Just ride it out and enjoy the ride! I wouldn't consider hedging until the ALCS.

Once they get to the ALCS versus the Yankees (most likely) Put 10K on the Yankees. Depeding on when Santana is starting, the series should be about Yanks -180. So you'll have to spend $18K to get $10K.

You'll either be up $10K if the Twins lose or up about $43K ($65K - $18K) if the Twins make it to the WS. Easy for me to say. Not sure if you have an extra $18K sitting around.

Either way, good luck with your play. I'll be cheering for the Twins this year.

 

[KG5678]

So all this is redundant if the Twins flop in the first round ?

I don't think so, this looks like their year, I don't think the Yanks can beat them in a 7 game series. Liriano would have been huge, but let's not forget he is a rookie, who knows what he would have done under the pressure in the playoffs. Good luck to you. If you win, use your money wisely.