Help with lines for first finals game....

[Happy Hippo]

I was just about to place a bet on Dallas for game 1 before the juice increased, but I was looking around on pinny and found these lines in playoff props. I don't usually look at these lines, so maybe someone can help me out - Are they just trying to scare me into taking Miami here? Or are these lines meaningful? Or am I reading them wrong? Seems to me they are saying - best chances Miami winning by 6' or more...


MARGIN OF VICTORY

Heat by 1 to 3 +858
Heat by 4 to 6 +957
Heat by > 6? +381
Mavericks by 1 to 3 +720
Mavericks by 4 to 6 +680
Mavericks by 7 to 10 +557
Mavericks by 11 to 13 +833
Mavericks by 14 to 17 +1193
Mavericks by > 17? +696


:shrug:

 

[WayneWonder]

Hippo...I don't think they are saying the best chance is the Heat to win by 7 or more....It is just that there is a lot more flexibility with that line. If the Heat win by 7 or if they win 27 you are covered, whereas with the other lines there is less room for error. Let's use the Mavs 4 to 6 as an example. If you play this line the winning margin has to be within a 3 point spread, much more difficult to pinpoint than Miami just winning by 7 or greater, therefore the payout will be greater. Look at the line for Mavs 17.5 or greater margin of victory. At +696 that is the 4th best line on the board because of the freedom it allows for. Any number greater than 18 wins. Notice also that three of the top four lines belong to the Mavericks. That should say more about who Vegas likes in this game. Hope that is clear.

If you like Miami you are better off eliminating the stress and playing them at +210 moneyline.

 

[Happy Hippo]

WW


thanks that cleared up my haze :weed:

very obvious to me now....