Help!!!!

[skulldog]

This question is for all you smart cappers out there, and there are alot of you.

I have the NYY to win the series @ 435/300, and I don't know what to do!

1. bet the dbacks for series 300/510 which gives me at least a push.

2.Bet Ari in gm 6 @ 330/200, if they win my exposure in gm 7 is only 235, and still can make a bet either way in gm 7.

3. Do nothing & hope they win gm 6( not very confident, and play gm 7.

I think Ari could win these last 2 gms after the way they handled the yanks in Gms 1&2, but the horses are going to have to go the distance.

I exhausted from the Stress

of the last 2 games, imagine what the players feel like

Thanks in advance.

 

[michtom]

you bet the yankees so you must have liked them. so stay with them. thats what betting is about

 

[skulldog]

That was alot of help!!

 

[michtom]

what are you looking for ? stick with your bet your going to win. i wish i would have made that bet

 

[BearDownAZ]

Skulldog,

I think I would simply concentrate on betting each of the final two games. . . the worst you can do with the series bets is break even just like you said.

Breaking even in sports betting could be thought of as a victory for many cappers and this is your worst case scenerio for the series wager!



[This message has been edited by BearDownAZ (edited 11-02-2001).]

 

[skulldog]

Thanks Bear!! Michtom I was looking for some valuable insight just in case I was missing something, not for you to say " stick w/your bet you going to win", there isn't ant math involved in that.

You can still bet the series @ -200 if your that confindent in the NYY, I'm not that's why I put up this thread.

Gl

 

[michtom]

after what has happened the last two games how can you not be confident. take off the skirt pal let the dice roll

 

[kcwolf]

Hi skulldog,

I played series NYY 120/100, similiar to your predicament, for 4 units 480/400. Also +4 units on individual game plays for the series.

Personally, thought about hedging last night. Felt the Yankee price was way out of line, maybe a quick way to recoup a possible bad play on the series(?).

Judge each game individually, decided to not hedge, and play a total I felt comfortable with. Felt the Snakes would not be mentally ready. That was a wrong decision that turned out right - think you know what I mean.

Enough boring prelude.

sculldog, please don't take this negatively, only trying to help and present my position.

I realize, from you opening statement, you are not comfortable with you origional series play. I respect your feelings.

Scenario #1:

You push or may win $75 if Arizona wins out. If you felt you made an origional series play that your not comfortable with, take this route immediately! You can't lose, as you mentioned previously.

Scenario #2:

Playing Arizona 330/200, game 6: Irrelevant to your original series play. A non-factor in relation to your series bet. If you play ARZ in hopes of recouping less than 50% of your original bet, very wrong way to go! Stick to #1 philosophy.

Scenario #3:

Again goes back to how confident you are with the orgional outlay on the series. You have admitted you don't feel confident. If that's the case, use scenario #1. Can't lose, go home and get a good night's sleep. Admit making an original mistake, in your eyes, but no cash lost.

No shame there.

I'll be doing something different, keeping in mind the plus situation I'm in already. If your willing to explain, I'll help you more.

Good luck in whatever you decide, skulldog!

Hope some of this makes sense.

kcwolf

 

[kcwolf]

Made a few gross spelling errors. It's Friday and not willing to go back and correct.

kcwolf

 

[nickcage100]

I'm in a similar situation. I have
5k on the yankees to win the WS at 1/1 odds.
NYY has been very lucky so far. Thinking
of putting 2k on az at +170 to win WS.
What would you guys do?

 

[skulldog]

That's the kind of info I was looking for KC, and coming fron a capper I respect, I greatly appreciate your response.

Nick, if I was in your shoes I would absolutely hedge just because of the size of the bet and I also agree that the Yanks have been extremely lucky period!!

Michtom, thank you very much for your response , but I think I'll stick w/advice from knowledgeable cappers.

Speaking of skirts, you still have time to take yours off and make a mans bet.

 

[nickcage100]

Ok, I need to make my decison soon. Here are a few scnearios I thought of. Let me know what you'd do. Also, I made 1k on NYY on game 3.

1. don't hedge.
nyy wins it. net for WS +6k
az wins it -4k.

2. put 1k on az to win ws at +170
nyy wins it. +5k.
az wins it. -2.3k.

3. put 1.5 k on az to win ws.
nyy wins it. +4.5k.
az wins it. -1.45k.

4. put 2k on az to win ws.
nyy wins it. +4k.
az wins it. -.6k

5. put 2.5k on az to win ws.
nyy wins it. +3.5k.
az wins it. +.25k.

which (1,2,3,4, or 5 would you choose)
thanks

 

[skulldog]

I wouldn't count the 1K you won in gm 3, as I would keep the bets seperate.

I'm still tossing and turning on what to do, but I'm leaning toward betting Ari and getting at least a push.

If you are still confident that the yanks are going to win the series, then let it ride, if not, hedge. I'm not afraid to admit that I may have made a mistake betting the yanks regardless of what happens in the series.

I love the dbacks tonight and Johnson w/pitch the entire gm( already bet them), beware that KC bet the yanks and he is a better capper than I.

I might let it ride especially since schilling's health is a concern for gm 7.

Now I'm confused.

 

[kcwolf]

skulldog,

You saw what I did today in my post. Just think its the better play, knowing I could have run to the cashier and say I'm done.

No doubt, a tough decision. I never felt I made a wrong decision to start with, and hope to capitalize. I really feel Brenly messed this up big time.

Much discussion on Brenly bring in Schilling on three days rest. Nobody has talked about Johnson going on 5 days rest.

Not quite as relevent, but screwing with a pitchers schedule is risky. All the signs point to a very poorly managed team again tonight.

kcwolf

 

[nickcage100]

s-dog. I know that the 1k shouldn't be counted but I'm going to anyways. Just looking for the total return on the WS..so
finally made my decision
put down 1500 on az +170 to win WS.
thus if nyy wins WS i clear +4500 for WS.
if az wins I lose 1450 on WS.
It will make it more comfortable to watch
the game(s)now.

 

[skulldog]

GL nick.

I bet ari tonight and left the series bet alone.

 

[nickcage100]

I put down 1 dime on az -135. Now I can
watch the game comfortably.
NYY wins WS, I make 3150 on the WS.
Az wins WS, I lose 450.
If not for a lot of luck, I should have
lost the original 5k bet on nyy.