Hey IE ...

[prospector]

how do you like Nortel at $12.50 (19.00 CDN) ?

summers here and we know what that means.
nothing.

i grabbed some NT at $19.02 CDN on the TSE on friday. was planning to sit on cash for the a couple months but it was too good a deal in my opinion.

any thoughts anyone?

 

[selkirk]

not IE but :

Nortel John Roths Words

November 1, 2000 (price above $65 CDN.) : Growth in operating profit and revenue in 2001 to be " in the 30-35% range".

December 14,2000 (price above $57cdn.) : "As we enter the last two weeks of the quarter and the year, we remain very confident in our previously stated guidance."

January 18,2001 (price approx$55cdn.) : Company statement "We seek continuing strong market demand in our industry segments. Even with the current economic uncertainty, Nortel.. is ideally positioned to continue to outpace the market and gain profitable market share."

they release this and then less than a month later

Feb 16, 2001 (approx $43cdn ) : Nortel warns of sharply lower profit growth. "We now expect the US market slowdown to continue well into the fourth quarter." Stock drops over 33%. it was lots of fun.

March 28,2001 (approx $21cdn.) : Memo to employees: " It is becoming clear that 2001 is shaping up as a Perfect Storm for high tech as our customers assess the impact of the slowdown in the US economy".

April 19,2001 (appox $26cdn.) : " We're hopeful the coming quarter will be better on the bottom line than the one we just finished.

Should state I own 500 shares bought in 1999 (most of them) before the large run up. I have written covered calls on 400 shares throughout the past two years. I had Nortels $70cdn, and $80 when the stock was at $120. My dollar cost is very low. I did well on the BCE spinoff of Nortel, bought BCE before they announced spinoff and sold off just before the actually spinoff happened. Should have waited a month more would have received more.

I believe there is little upside in Nortel in the next six months, however when asked in this forum once I thought Nortel was overvalued (fully valued) at $90cdn. (then went to $128cdn.

Another time stated when it fell to $65 cdn. (was asked) stated it was not as cheap, and still expensive valuation could still be cut in half. Also that it would probably follow Nasdaq, which went down. Still thought that if they kept guidance and Nasdaq came back stock could close at $90 cdn. that was wrong.

so maybe it is a good sign that I am down on Nortel. note have written covered calls December Cdn. $25. on the stock.

thanks
selkirk






[This message has been edited by selkirk (edited 06-11-2001).]

 

[prospector]

selkirk

thanks for your excellent insight into the Nortel situation.

i agree there may be little upside in NT in the short-term because the valuations appear to quite out of whack with reality and i can only believe that at some point the stock cost will be equated to the stock value.

what i have a hard time believing is that the patents that NT holds are by themselves able to place the share price above the $12 US it currently is trading at.

do you not think that maybe Nortel is a little "over punished" by the market conditions ?

again, thanks for your thoughts, they are greatly appreciated.

 

[selkirk]

I do believe the market sometimes over reacts both on the upside and the downside, however with Nortel most of the news lately has been negative.

Junior companies (drug companies) since there are often no products or profits and cashflow you have to value the company on the drugs (products) they have in the pipeline. that is why they are specualative in nature. Something could happen during the 4 phases of testing.

Nortel does have some great technology but I would base the valuation of Revenue, earnings, ( and future growth). There have been many new companies that have had promising technology that have never rewarded their shareholders. Just becasue you have a technological edge does not necessarily mean you have a profitable company.

good luck with the investment, I know some people who have risked a (lot) on a comeback for Nortel.

I do not dollar cost on a stock that shows me a loss, that is just a trading rule I have.

thanks
selkirk