Hi again/apologies/little help please...

[Anders]

Hi all

Long time since the last post I imagine...

Been a lot happening, have changed jobs again, but the main factor has been a frustrating/agonising back injury. For the past two months I went from doc to osteopath to physio to acupuncturist to orthopaedic specialist to fix/determine the problem.
Turns out to be a ruptured disc...once properly diagnosed, had to go thru another rigmarole of booking specialists, getting insurance approval etc before I got a steroid injection, which takes between 1-3 weeks to take full effect.
It's now one week, and while I've had some rough days today is a good one so fingers crossed...been a horrendously annoying/depressing past 2 months and an awful lot of lying around...
So apologies due to those who have tried to be in touch thru email - just haven't been able to sit for a long while...esp to Kickserv, I know I owe u a reply ...

I have, however, been able to dictate to my kind wife a weekly column I am writing for my newspaper - the only authentic sports betting newspaper column in NZ!!
I wanted to write this week a bit about - Is there value in Futures plays? - and would love it if someone or a group of posters can help provide the pre-season Futures prices for the past 4-5 years say of the major sports - Superbowl winner, Stanley Cup winner, World Series winner, NBA title winner...
Obviously there's been a few biggies, esp in the NFL and MLB...I guess u could also count the Pistons in that category? Were they 12-1 from memory?
Would also love to read any thoughts on the topic...

Hope all is well with my friends in Madjacks land

Cheers
Anders

 

[SixFive]

can't help u with the betting data, but I know all about the back injury. If u want practical advice from me, I've had the injury, and I'm a RN who has worked with many patients like this. Email me or post here if u wish.

Cheers!

 

[GM]

Hi Anders, welcome back. Sorry to hear you are in pain. Believe me, I know what back pain is like! It is not fun.

I have the O/U win totals and prices for the '01 and '02 seasons in spreadsheet format (Lotus 1-2-3). For '01 I have 6 sportsbooks charted...for '02 I have 9 books listed. For some reason it appears my '03 numbers have disappeared. Possibly because I didn't make any futures bets last year of any significance.

I have found over the last few years the value has been a lot harder to find as bookmakers have sharpened up these numbers a lot. You used to see teams pegged to win 12 or even 13 games before the season started, and others picked to win 3 or 4. Now there are still some low-end numbers out there occaisionally, but very few totals above 10? or 11. Unders on the biggies and Overs on the little ones was pretty easy money for a while. If you blindly just took every Under for totals 11? and higher, and Over for totals 4? and lower I believe you'd have won something like 75% of your bets...back in the good old days around 2000 and 2001. Going 13-3 is REALLY not easy no matter who the team is. Unfortunately, as I said...apparently the books got killed on those kind of numbers...most of the easy pickings are gone now.

My spreadsheets also take into account strength of schedule for the upcoming season AND back-fit strength of schedule for the previous season (by back-fit, I mean, after it was all over I did a SoS analysis on each team). A team may have gone 6-10 say, but maybe 11 of the teams they faced had 10 wins or more... so it may be fair to say this 6-10 team may not have been as bad as they appeared on paper.

You also see really strong situations...such as the Bears team of '01. They had just come off 6-10 and 5-11 seasons. Their O/U number going into '01 was 6?. However their back-fitted SoS for the '00 season was 149 (that is, their 16 opponents in '00 had 149 wins combined...by far the toughest schedule any team faced that year. By contrast, the league-low SoS going into '01 was Denver @ 103 - a much softer schedule). They (the Bears) caught a LOT of breaks, lots of last-minute victories...and went on to a 13-3 year in '01. The following year of course they came crashing back to earth...partly because they really weren't THAT good a team, partly because that was the year they had to play their home games in Champaign, IL.

Anyways, I've got the numbers if you want them. Have Jack send me your email address and I can send them to you if you want.

 

[djv]

Yo Anders good do have you posting again. Back problems im sure you don't need us to tell you are a pain in the Ass. That young kid Fletcher he knows alitte about that to. Sorry info your looking for im not up to date on. I would think maybe some of the data stored here may help. And IE, I have hunch when he sees this may have more.

 

[buddy]

Anders,

Get my email addy from Jack.

I know someone who may be a big help to you.

 

[taoist]

...where ya been old timer?

...sorry to hear of the back problems, but nice to see ya posting every now and again.

DJV - "that young kid fletcher" - LMAO. ..just kidding eric. Hope all is well with all of Jack's friends.

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

...where ya been old timer?

...sorry to hear of the back problems, but nice to see ya posting every now and again.

DJV - "that young kid fletcher" - LMAO. ..just kidding eric. Hope all is well with all of Jack's friends.

glad 2 c you're alive

study your arse off bud and GL on the bar exam!!!

 

[Anders]

Thanx guys - nice to catch up with the ol' regulars...

Am off to see the back specialist on Wed for an update, still slow progress, will get those emails off Jack if I'm not happy with what I here...
Thanks heaps GM on yer futures thoughts....managed to scrape something for my reader(s)
Have been posting my plays each Sat with the column, putting my reputation on the line, and have hit at 55% so far so not sacked yet!

Will try and keep in touch....cheers again...