Home teams (favorites) generally dominate this weekend and for good reason. They have an extra week of rest, they are playing at home and they are generally the better team. Add to that the fact that the public often becomes wrapped up in a good performance by a team one week earlier (Jets last year, Ravens in 2002, Eagles in 2001, etc.) and often times lines are far too short for the NFL Divisional Playoffs.
I don't have the exact numbers, but I know the ATS winning percentage of home teams in the Divisional Playoffs is very strong over the last 13 years or so. I believe it is over 60% and it may be even more like 70%.
Maybe I am becoming one of the suckers, but this year the lines look too high to me. I do not see a single favorite with a good line this weekend. A friend of mine who works in scouting with an NFL team mentioned to me in about week 14 that he felt this would be the first year ever that both top seeds in the AFC would lose their first playoff game. In the NFC, the Packers are on equal footing with the Eagles. Certainly the Rams have the potential to trounce Carolina but it is hard to imagine any team racking up points on that Carolina defense. Giving over a touchdown may be too much.
The point of this post is that historical trends don't always come through every year. Just because favorites have historically been a good bet this weekend does not mean that this year will be the same. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that at least 3 of the 4 favorites will be ATS losers this weekend. I know it is risky to fly in the face of sucha strong historical trend, but I strongly believe that this will happen.
I don't have the exact numbers, but I know the ATS winning percentage of home teams in the Divisional Playoffs is very strong over the last 13 years or so. I believe it is over 60% and it may be even more like 70%.
Maybe I am becoming one of the suckers, but this year the lines look too high to me. I do not see a single favorite with a good line this weekend. A friend of mine who works in scouting with an NFL team mentioned to me in about week 14 that he felt this would be the first year ever that both top seeds in the AFC would lose their first playoff game. In the NFC, the Packers are on equal footing with the Eagles. Certainly the Rams have the potential to trounce Carolina but it is hard to imagine any team racking up points on that Carolina defense. Giving over a touchdown may be too much.
The point of this post is that historical trends don't always come through every year. Just because favorites have historically been a good bet this weekend does not mean that this year will be the same. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that at least 3 of the 4 favorites will be ATS losers this weekend. I know it is risky to fly in the face of sucha strong historical trend, but I strongly believe that this will happen.
