2* - Oklahoma Sooners (+3)
Oklahoma is having an uncharacteristically down year which started with the Sooners being upset by TCU in their opener. No question that the outcome of that game surprised everyone but not many would have believed it at the time that TCU would go on to finish their season with a 10-1 record nor that Oklahoma would go on to lose four games. If you look at the records of the four teams that beat the Sooners this year, you might be surprised to learn that they had only five losses between them and that two are conference champions while all four are playing in major bowls.
The Sooners? 7-4 record may well have been better if not for a nagging ankle injury sustained by Okie RB Adrian Peterson in the TCU game which kept him from duplicating his record setting freshman year when he gained 1,925 yards. This year, on one ankle for half the season, he gained over 1,000 and he has now had four full weeks of rehab since his last game. That is not good news for Oregon since in their last four games, the Ducks have struggled against the run. Arizona, California, Washington State and Oregon State each had a rusher with at least 128 yards and the last time Oklahoma played the Ducks, Peterson had 24 carries for 183 yards and scored two second half touchdowns in a 31-7 victory for the Sooners. If the Sooners? last game of the season against Oklahoma State is any indication of how Peterson?s ankle is feeling, things look good as he rushed for a season high 237 yards. Down the stretch, QB Rhett Bomar has continued to improve and the running game behind a healthy Peterson has provided consistent results as the Sooners quietly won five of six and averaged 30 points per game along the way.
Oregon is ranked No. 5 in the country and is less than pleased with the bowl game they are playing in tonight after going 10-1 on the season. After heavy lobbying by the school to gain a BCS berth, the Fiesta Bowl committee passed them over in favor of the higher profile Notre Dame squad and the Ducks are pissed. Can Bellotti get this team motivated tonight or are we in store for a d?j? vu of last year?s Holiday Bowl when a very similar situation occurred with Texas being chosen in favor of California to play in the Rose Bowl? The Bears ended up in the Holiday Bowl and clearly did not want to be there and their attitude about the game allowed them to get their asses handed to them by Texas Tech.
The Ducks allowed an average of 23.7 points per game this year and played close games with Fresno, Arizona, Cal and Washington State who had a combined record of 23-23. Oklahoma is easily the best team Oregon has seen since getting blown up by Southern Cal in September. Oregon?s 10-1 season was earned against a mediocre slate of opponents and their 5-0 road record was the result of traveling to Houston, Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona, and Washington State.
Over the last seven years, underdog (read disappointed team) is 0-7 ATS with an average loss to the spread by nearly 12 points per game. That is not a coincidence but a situational trend based on the poor attitudes of teams that have been shunned by the BCS and the way I see it, this is another perfect example of just that. Throw in the clear advantage the Sooners have in the coaching department and I think that Oklahoma may very well pull the upset here.
Oklahoma is having an uncharacteristically down year which started with the Sooners being upset by TCU in their opener. No question that the outcome of that game surprised everyone but not many would have believed it at the time that TCU would go on to finish their season with a 10-1 record nor that Oklahoma would go on to lose four games. If you look at the records of the four teams that beat the Sooners this year, you might be surprised to learn that they had only five losses between them and that two are conference champions while all four are playing in major bowls.
The Sooners? 7-4 record may well have been better if not for a nagging ankle injury sustained by Okie RB Adrian Peterson in the TCU game which kept him from duplicating his record setting freshman year when he gained 1,925 yards. This year, on one ankle for half the season, he gained over 1,000 and he has now had four full weeks of rehab since his last game. That is not good news for Oregon since in their last four games, the Ducks have struggled against the run. Arizona, California, Washington State and Oregon State each had a rusher with at least 128 yards and the last time Oklahoma played the Ducks, Peterson had 24 carries for 183 yards and scored two second half touchdowns in a 31-7 victory for the Sooners. If the Sooners? last game of the season against Oklahoma State is any indication of how Peterson?s ankle is feeling, things look good as he rushed for a season high 237 yards. Down the stretch, QB Rhett Bomar has continued to improve and the running game behind a healthy Peterson has provided consistent results as the Sooners quietly won five of six and averaged 30 points per game along the way.
Oregon is ranked No. 5 in the country and is less than pleased with the bowl game they are playing in tonight after going 10-1 on the season. After heavy lobbying by the school to gain a BCS berth, the Fiesta Bowl committee passed them over in favor of the higher profile Notre Dame squad and the Ducks are pissed. Can Bellotti get this team motivated tonight or are we in store for a d?j? vu of last year?s Holiday Bowl when a very similar situation occurred with Texas being chosen in favor of California to play in the Rose Bowl? The Bears ended up in the Holiday Bowl and clearly did not want to be there and their attitude about the game allowed them to get their asses handed to them by Texas Tech.
The Ducks allowed an average of 23.7 points per game this year and played close games with Fresno, Arizona, Cal and Washington State who had a combined record of 23-23. Oklahoma is easily the best team Oregon has seen since getting blown up by Southern Cal in September. Oregon?s 10-1 season was earned against a mediocre slate of opponents and their 5-0 road record was the result of traveling to Houston, Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona, and Washington State.
Over the last seven years, underdog (read disappointed team) is 0-7 ATS with an average loss to the spread by nearly 12 points per game. That is not a coincidence but a situational trend based on the poor attitudes of teams that have been shunned by the BCS and the way I see it, this is another perfect example of just that. Throw in the clear advantage the Sooners have in the coaching department and I think that Oklahoma may very well pull the upset here.
