Home Dogs
- Thread starter Skipper
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Home dogs are 57.7% (15-11 ATS) by my numbers.
Actually, home teams period have been the play thus far. Home favs are also exactly 57.7% (49-36-3), for an overall home team record of, well, 57.7%! (64-47-3).
Actually, home teams period have been the play thus far. Home favs are also exactly 57.7% (49-36-3), for an overall home team record of, well, 57.7%! (64-47-3).
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I'd like to say that too, but it isn't true. LOL Actually it varies quite a bit from year to year. I've spent years tracking this data...and all I can tell you is that it's pretty inconsistent. Every year is unique it seems. Here's the data I have collected:
Home Dogs:
1999: 46-35, 56.8%
2000: 38-38-2, 50.0%
2001: 42-36, 53.8%
2002: 52-37-2, 58.4%
2003: 36-34-3, 51.4%
2004: 37-42-2, 46.8%
2005: 15-11 thus far, 57.7%
Overall: 266-233-9, 53.3%
Not such a good year last year. In fact, they're basically a 50% play since the start of '03.
I've broken down all the games since '99 by spread ranges and cover rates, home and road covers, etc. The only pattern I can really say I detect in my data is that every season some category (ie. home dogs, road dogs, teams getting 7+ pts, teams laying less than 3, etc) seems to go on a run. But come the next season, throw it all out the window...some other category will be hot, and I have no idea which.
But overall, ya, home dogs would have made you a bit of money if you blindly bet every single one since 1999. (If you pick 52.38% correct you break even taking the juice into account, and since '99 they're a shade over 53%, so they are money-makers overall, but not huge).
I have a theory about why they are under-performing. Simply, there are more people than ever betting on football, and they are more educated than ever. There are still a lot of suckers, but a greater % of the betting public is aware of the value of dogs than was the case years ago. Back in the 80's and early 90's you could probably have made a killing playing them all blindly, but not anymore.
Home Dogs:
1999: 46-35, 56.8%
2000: 38-38-2, 50.0%
2001: 42-36, 53.8%
2002: 52-37-2, 58.4%
2003: 36-34-3, 51.4%
2004: 37-42-2, 46.8%
2005: 15-11 thus far, 57.7%
Overall: 266-233-9, 53.3%
Not such a good year last year. In fact, they're basically a 50% play since the start of '03.
I've broken down all the games since '99 by spread ranges and cover rates, home and road covers, etc. The only pattern I can really say I detect in my data is that every season some category (ie. home dogs, road dogs, teams getting 7+ pts, teams laying less than 3, etc) seems to go on a run. But come the next season, throw it all out the window...some other category will be hot, and I have no idea which.
But overall, ya, home dogs would have made you a bit of money if you blindly bet every single one since 1999. (If you pick 52.38% correct you break even taking the juice into account, and since '99 they're a shade over 53%, so they are money-makers overall, but not huge).
I have a theory about why they are under-performing. Simply, there are more people than ever betting on football, and they are more educated than ever. There are still a lot of suckers, but a greater % of the betting public is aware of the value of dogs than was the case years ago. Back in the 80's and early 90's you could probably have made a killing playing them all blindly, but not anymore.
I have blindly played all homedogs for the past 4 years and I have been more profitable than those numbers. SIA is one of my books and many times their homedog lines are no juice and/or a point or so off, so I have gotten better lines than most and lost less juice than normal. The only other games I bet in the NFL are some small home favorites and some anti-consensus plays like the bills and ravens the last 2 nights. Sticking to those plays has made me a great deal of money in the NFL the last few years. Too bad I lose it all betting on college.
Never seen a card like this one, at least I can't recall one. There is also a local team close by that should be a home dog. I'll take the other side almost every time when the Browns are laying a number.
Going back through my records now to see if I can find a week with as many home dogs as this.
The most I have found so far: 8, Week 11, 2004. Not to scare you off playing the home dogs...but they went 0-7-1 that week. Just a mathematical anomoly, but I am sure there are plenty of people who thought this would be a gold mine of a week, bet 'em all and got killed.
100p ?BUFFALO 2 ?40 St Louis
100p ?BALTIMORE 7? ?36 Dallas
100p ?NY Jets 1? 38 CLEVELAND
100p ?Pittsburgh 4 40? CINCINNATI
100p ?Indianapolis 8 ?44? CHICAGO
100p MINNESOTA 8 48 ?Detroit
100p ?CAROLINA 3 ?38 Arizona
100p JACKSONVILLE 3 36 ?Tennessee
100p ?TAMPA BAY 8 42 San Francisco
100p ?Denver 6 48? NEW ORLEANS
405p SEATTLE 9 ?37 ?Miami
405p ?San Diego 4? 47? OAKLAND
415p ?Atlanta 3? 40? NY GIANTS
415p ?PHILADELPHIA 10 38? Washington
830p *Green Bay 3 51 *HOUSTON
900pMon ?New England 3 53? KANSAS CITY
? Teams with a solid dot won and covered the game
? Teams with a circle covered the spread, but did not win outright
* Push
? A solid dot next to a total indicates it went Over
The most I have found so far: 8, Week 11, 2004. Not to scare you off playing the home dogs...but they went 0-7-1 that week. Just a mathematical anomoly, but I am sure there are plenty of people who thought this would be a gold mine of a week, bet 'em all and got killed.
100p ?BUFFALO 2 ?40 St Louis
100p ?BALTIMORE 7? ?36 Dallas
100p ?NY Jets 1? 38 CLEVELAND
100p ?Pittsburgh 4 40? CINCINNATI
100p ?Indianapolis 8 ?44? CHICAGO
100p MINNESOTA 8 48 ?Detroit
100p ?CAROLINA 3 ?38 Arizona
100p JACKSONVILLE 3 36 ?Tennessee
100p ?TAMPA BAY 8 42 San Francisco
100p ?Denver 6 48? NEW ORLEANS
405p SEATTLE 9 ?37 ?Miami
405p ?San Diego 4? 47? OAKLAND
415p ?Atlanta 3? 40? NY GIANTS
415p ?PHILADELPHIA 10 38? Washington
830p *Green Bay 3 51 *HOUSTON
900pMon ?New England 3 53? KANSAS CITY
? Teams with a solid dot won and covered the game
? Teams with a circle covered the spread, but did not win outright
* Push
? A solid dot next to a total indicates it went Over
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Sure hope you didn't hit all the home dogs today. History repeats - just like last year in the example above, they bombed out. Currently 1-5-1 for the week, with one more home doggie to go.
(Minnesota went off as a favorite...Tampa as a Pick 'Em, by my numbers).
(Minnesota went off as a favorite...Tampa as a Pick 'Em, by my numbers).
