Home Dogs beating the odds
College Football Home Dogs Beating Pointspreads in ?07
by Steve Makinen
For anyone who has had the stomach to play the numerous college football home underdogs in the past month, you have been rewarded handsomely for your fortitude, as home pups have gone on a run of 46-22 ATS for 67.5% over the last four weeks of games. In fact, the sheer volume of pointspread victories by the barking dogs are reaching levels of success not seen before in the ******* database as the 38 ATS wins in the last three weeks have tied a 15-year high.
Overall for the season, home underdogs are hitting at a 57.7% success rate against the spread, and this past week?s ESPN feature games on Thursday and Friday night when Rutgers upended South Florida and Connecticut beat Louisville were perfect examples of what has become a glaring trend?home underdogs = success.
As you can see from the chart below illustrating the performance records of home underdogs over the years and every week of the 2007 season, the 57.7% success rate over this season?s first eight weeks would place 2007 in the #2 spot in terms of home underdog ATS performance. The 2004 season was #1 at 62.3%, and this year?s home pups would really have to pick it up over the next 6-7 weeks to reach that level. Still, it?s been a great run, and hopefully along the way you?ve been able to pick up a few underdog money line wins as well.
1. (105) BOISE ST at (106) FRESNO ST (+4.5) - FRIDAY
2. (107) S FLORIDA at (108) CONNECTICUT (+5.5)
3. (131) C MICHIGAN at (132) KENT ST (+1.5)
4. (135) KANSAS at (136) TEXAS A&M (+3)
5. (143) MEMPHIS at (144) TULANE (+1)
6. (147) LOUISIANA TECH at (148) UTAH ST (+3)
7. (151) W MICHIGAN at (152) E MICHIGAN (+5)
8. (157) MICHIGAN ST at (158) IOWA (+3)
9. (159) CLEMSON at (160) MARYLAND (+3)
10. (161) VIRGINIA at (162) NC STATE (+3)
11. (169) UTAH at (170) COLORADO ST (+6.5)
12. (175) UCLA at (176) WASHINGTON ST (+6)
13. (183) W VIRGINIA at (184) RUTGERS (+6.5)
14. (185) OHIO ST at (186) PENN ST (+3.5)
15. (187) HOUSTON at (188) UTEP (+4)
16. (189) BYU at (190) SAN DIEGO ST (+14)
17. (199) TROY at (200) ARKANSAS ST (+4)
18. (201) MIDDLE TENN ST at (202) NORTH TEXAS (+12.5)
On this weekend?s college football betting board, there will be 18 home underdogs, based upon opening lines. Just by the simple law of averages, some of these will win outright, some will only win ATS, while others will do neither. Recent activity would certainly suggest that you study these games a little closer before the weekend. These are the games, based on opening lines. Stay tuned till the end when I reveal my own checkdown list for qualifying home underdogs for betting consideration.
With 18 games to choose from this weekend, how can we narrow the list down and focus on the most lively of home underdogs? Here are some questions to consider as you decide whether or not to back a particular home pooch?
Does the game mean something to the home team? ? Home underdogs without any kind of motivation besides simply playing well aren?t apt to get up for a game against a better opponent.
Is the home team a dog because it is a bad team or because it is playing an elite opponent? ? It?s never a good idea to play bad teams, even against other bad teams, since when this occurs, there is normally a good reason why the road team is favored. Bad teams aren?t lively underdogs.
Is the home underdog accustomed to playing as a favorite more often than not? ? R.E.S.P.E.C.T. Quality teams don?t take kindly to being an underdog on their home turf. This provides for that extra motivation I spoke of just above, and can lead to success.
Is the home underdog playing well at home of late? ? It?s not often when you can get a team that plays well at home as an underdog, but it does happen, note Penn State. These dogs are typically livelier since they are used to success on the home turf and know how to feed off their own fans? enthusiasm.
Does the home underdog have a good defense? ? A good defense can take over a game in every aspect, from controlling the pace to forcing turnovers. This is very important when facing superior clubs.
Does the home underdog have a good offense? ? Being a road favorite, it can typically be assumed that the team has a capable offense, defense or both. If the home underdog is down, does it have the capability to score or are points going to be hard to come by? Nothing is more frustrating that backing an offensive inept underdog that is overmatched.
Does the home underdog have good balance? ? Rutgers proved last week that home dogs have to be able to mix it up to keep a superior team off balance. The ability to both run and throw the ball leaves a team with something to fall back on if either weapon is rendered ineffective. If a team goes into a game struggling with either, chances aren?t good that they?ll get it going against a favored opponent.
What would the line of this game have been 1, 2, 3, or 8 weeks ago, etc? ? has a recent run of surprisingly good play by the road favorite or poor play by the home underdog cause an overadjustment by oddsmakers? If so, it?s better to be on the opposite side of the error, since those types of things tend to correct themselves, and quickly. Case in point, Rutgers would likely have been listed as better than a field goal favorite against USF anytime in the season?s first five weeks. Instead they were the dog. Way too far of an adjustment.
Are there any signs of late that indicate a home team could be ready to pull an upset? ? Heartbreaking losses, particularly to conference opponents, have a tendency of motivating teams. Resounding wins have the same affect, and can carryover to team?s next game. Has the home dog been snake-bitten in recent weeks by turnovers or key penalty calls, etc? If any of these apply, you might have yourself a lively dog.
Is the road favorite a big name school not playing up to typical expectations? ? Tier 2 schools loves taking down big name programs or kicking them when they are already down. In most cases, this road favorite has dominated the head-to-head series, but is ripe for the picking by an extremely hungry opponent. Connecticut?s upset of Louisville last Friday is a perfect example.
Is the line just plain wrong? ? Nothing is more effective in football betting that watching and knowing the teams. Some statistics, like the ******* Outplay Factor Ratings, can uncover false favorites, but nothing can take the place of seeing how teams are playing and being able to project how they?ll matchup against an opponent. This is particularly true in the season?s first few weeks. When watching the games, take special note of how a team?s front lines control the line of scrimmage, or how the quarterback effectively commandeers the offense.
Ask yourself these simple questions before this weekend?s action and come up with your own winning list of live college football Week 9 home underdogs! Good luck.
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College Football Home Dogs Beating Pointspreads in ?07
by Steve Makinen
For anyone who has had the stomach to play the numerous college football home underdogs in the past month, you have been rewarded handsomely for your fortitude, as home pups have gone on a run of 46-22 ATS for 67.5% over the last four weeks of games. In fact, the sheer volume of pointspread victories by the barking dogs are reaching levels of success not seen before in the ******* database as the 38 ATS wins in the last three weeks have tied a 15-year high.
Overall for the season, home underdogs are hitting at a 57.7% success rate against the spread, and this past week?s ESPN feature games on Thursday and Friday night when Rutgers upended South Florida and Connecticut beat Louisville were perfect examples of what has become a glaring trend?home underdogs = success.
As you can see from the chart below illustrating the performance records of home underdogs over the years and every week of the 2007 season, the 57.7% success rate over this season?s first eight weeks would place 2007 in the #2 spot in terms of home underdog ATS performance. The 2004 season was #1 at 62.3%, and this year?s home pups would really have to pick it up over the next 6-7 weeks to reach that level. Still, it?s been a great run, and hopefully along the way you?ve been able to pick up a few underdog money line wins as well.
1. (105) BOISE ST at (106) FRESNO ST (+4.5) - FRIDAY
2. (107) S FLORIDA at (108) CONNECTICUT (+5.5)
3. (131) C MICHIGAN at (132) KENT ST (+1.5)
4. (135) KANSAS at (136) TEXAS A&M (+3)
5. (143) MEMPHIS at (144) TULANE (+1)
6. (147) LOUISIANA TECH at (148) UTAH ST (+3)
7. (151) W MICHIGAN at (152) E MICHIGAN (+5)
8. (157) MICHIGAN ST at (158) IOWA (+3)
9. (159) CLEMSON at (160) MARYLAND (+3)
10. (161) VIRGINIA at (162) NC STATE (+3)
11. (169) UTAH at (170) COLORADO ST (+6.5)
12. (175) UCLA at (176) WASHINGTON ST (+6)
13. (183) W VIRGINIA at (184) RUTGERS (+6.5)
14. (185) OHIO ST at (186) PENN ST (+3.5)
15. (187) HOUSTON at (188) UTEP (+4)
16. (189) BYU at (190) SAN DIEGO ST (+14)
17. (199) TROY at (200) ARKANSAS ST (+4)
18. (201) MIDDLE TENN ST at (202) NORTH TEXAS (+12.5)
On this weekend?s college football betting board, there will be 18 home underdogs, based upon opening lines. Just by the simple law of averages, some of these will win outright, some will only win ATS, while others will do neither. Recent activity would certainly suggest that you study these games a little closer before the weekend. These are the games, based on opening lines. Stay tuned till the end when I reveal my own checkdown list for qualifying home underdogs for betting consideration.
With 18 games to choose from this weekend, how can we narrow the list down and focus on the most lively of home underdogs? Here are some questions to consider as you decide whether or not to back a particular home pooch?
Does the game mean something to the home team? ? Home underdogs without any kind of motivation besides simply playing well aren?t apt to get up for a game against a better opponent.
Is the home team a dog because it is a bad team or because it is playing an elite opponent? ? It?s never a good idea to play bad teams, even against other bad teams, since when this occurs, there is normally a good reason why the road team is favored. Bad teams aren?t lively underdogs.
Is the home underdog accustomed to playing as a favorite more often than not? ? R.E.S.P.E.C.T. Quality teams don?t take kindly to being an underdog on their home turf. This provides for that extra motivation I spoke of just above, and can lead to success.
Is the home underdog playing well at home of late? ? It?s not often when you can get a team that plays well at home as an underdog, but it does happen, note Penn State. These dogs are typically livelier since they are used to success on the home turf and know how to feed off their own fans? enthusiasm.
Does the home underdog have a good defense? ? A good defense can take over a game in every aspect, from controlling the pace to forcing turnovers. This is very important when facing superior clubs.
Does the home underdog have a good offense? ? Being a road favorite, it can typically be assumed that the team has a capable offense, defense or both. If the home underdog is down, does it have the capability to score or are points going to be hard to come by? Nothing is more frustrating that backing an offensive inept underdog that is overmatched.
Does the home underdog have good balance? ? Rutgers proved last week that home dogs have to be able to mix it up to keep a superior team off balance. The ability to both run and throw the ball leaves a team with something to fall back on if either weapon is rendered ineffective. If a team goes into a game struggling with either, chances aren?t good that they?ll get it going against a favored opponent.
What would the line of this game have been 1, 2, 3, or 8 weeks ago, etc? ? has a recent run of surprisingly good play by the road favorite or poor play by the home underdog cause an overadjustment by oddsmakers? If so, it?s better to be on the opposite side of the error, since those types of things tend to correct themselves, and quickly. Case in point, Rutgers would likely have been listed as better than a field goal favorite against USF anytime in the season?s first five weeks. Instead they were the dog. Way too far of an adjustment.
Are there any signs of late that indicate a home team could be ready to pull an upset? ? Heartbreaking losses, particularly to conference opponents, have a tendency of motivating teams. Resounding wins have the same affect, and can carryover to team?s next game. Has the home dog been snake-bitten in recent weeks by turnovers or key penalty calls, etc? If any of these apply, you might have yourself a lively dog.
Is the road favorite a big name school not playing up to typical expectations? ? Tier 2 schools loves taking down big name programs or kicking them when they are already down. In most cases, this road favorite has dominated the head-to-head series, but is ripe for the picking by an extremely hungry opponent. Connecticut?s upset of Louisville last Friday is a perfect example.
Is the line just plain wrong? ? Nothing is more effective in football betting that watching and knowing the teams. Some statistics, like the ******* Outplay Factor Ratings, can uncover false favorites, but nothing can take the place of seeing how teams are playing and being able to project how they?ll matchup against an opponent. This is particularly true in the season?s first few weeks. When watching the games, take special note of how a team?s front lines control the line of scrimmage, or how the quarterback effectively commandeers the offense.
Ask yourself these simple questions before this weekend?s action and come up with your own winning list of live college football Week 9 home underdogs! Good luck.
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