Home Favorites 12 points or less

[c20916]

I got this from another site, and I haven't validated the YTD % it gave, it stated that this year all home favorites of 12 points or less have only covered 38% of the time. Last week the plays would have been:

Air Force +6.5 -- L
Central Florida +2.5 -- W
Clemson +3 -- W
Troy +3 -- P
Southern Miss +6 -- W
Oklahoma +1 -- W
Colorado St. +6 -- W
Idaho +5 -- W
Arizona +8 -- W
Navy +6 -- L
Cincinnati +5.5 -- W
Iowa St. +10 -- W
Marshall +1 -- W
Kent +7 -- L

for a 10-3-1 record.

This week there would be a ton of plays, I'll track it just to see if it keeps it up:

UAB +2.5 -- W
USF +3 -- W
Tulane +12 -- L
Wake +8.5 -- L
S. Carolina +4 -- W
Tenn +8 -- L
Rice +7.5 -- L
Wyoming +3 -- L
Wisky +10.5 -- L
Army +11 -- W
Cal +1 -- L
K State +7.5 -- L
Mizzou +11 -- L
Fla Atl +3 -- L
Hawaii +5.5 -- L
Fla Intl +11 -- W
Arky St +6 -- L
CSU +7 -- L
Miami +6.5 -- W
Tulsa +9 -- W

 

[stagger lee]

C20916

Found this post interesting since over the last week or so I thought about a situation I thought about 1 night.

For some odd reason, thought about the situation where a team comes home for its first game after playing 2 or more straight road games.

Went back for this year?s games to date and last season?s. Not sure if the numbers are entirely accurate, but I think they are pretty close.

This season, teams playing 1st home game after 2 or more on the road.

Faves
(0 to 3.5 points) are: 4-9
(4 to 7.5 points) are: 4-9

for an 8-18 ats record

Last season:
fave (0 to 3.5) were: 4-12
fave (4 to 7.5 points): 19-11

Dogs of 8+ points:
this year: 11-3
last year: 21-11

 

[Theboundbook]

More of the truth here. Anti public and anti logic winning. Its EXACTLY how Vegas works....... Win alot when the Joe Public goes one way or it looks so easy and the public goes against stats like the one's shown in this thread.

 

[c20916]

Well it starts off the week with a win last night.

1-0 this week

 

[GRIFFIN]

do you have any stats on how double digit home dogs are doing this year?

thanks

 

[c20916]

Well apparently this system regressed towards the norm this week as home favs went 13-7, meaning the system went 7-13. Will track another week and see how it pans out.