Home Team Totals System - Mon Sept 1

[LordofBalls]

hi guys...

cant remember a day like this before... hope i never see one like it again :nono: ....
hurts to do that last day of the wk... danggggggg

Winners were...
N O N E :shrug:

Tied Clev over ... :00hour

Losers were...
-Tb under (#2)
-Nats under (#2)
-Ariz under (#2)
-Reds under (#2)
-Rsox over (#1)
-Fla over (#1)

(ss) Secondary System - Mon Plays
**Nats gm UNDER... Bet #3
**Clev gm OVER... Bet #2... again
**Rsox gm OVER... Bet #2
**Fla gm OVER... Bet #2
TUES:
***Ariz gm UNDER... Bet #3
***Reds gm UNDER... Bet #3
***Tby gm UNDER... Bet #3

Primary System 197-3 ytd.... 0 pending
Secondary System 118-0.... 7 pending above :0corn


Updated Record inc. gms played Aug 30th...
Primary System -- Bet Breakdown
Bet #1 == 104 wins
#2 == 54 wins
#3 == 25 wins
#4 == 8 wins
#5 == 6 wins
3 losses... 2 of which won the very next home opportunity, the other tied and then won...

Secondary System - Bet Breakdown (since All-Star break)
Bet #1 == 23 wins
#2 == 8 wins
#3 == 10 wins
#4 == 0
#5 == 1 win


:SIB :00hour Best of Luck to USALL!! :00hour :SIB

Find something lucky and rub it!!

moon1 moon1

 

[LordofBalls]

"Watch Day" Monday for these tms starting long homestands... :0corn
*run line players take note!
-Milw (mets/sd/cin)
-Colo (sf/off/hou)
-Tex (sea/off/rsox)
-Dodger (sd/off/ariz)
-Reds (pitt/cubs) **re-start

BoL~LoB
:SIB

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

youve got a strong system going...just a thought here looking at your results.
why not just do a two and 3- game chase and up your risk on your bets....seems like that would be more profitable to me. ....also less risk/juice overall.

primary systems record after 1st 2 games ofchase is awesome.....secondary system is great after 3-games...

if i understand everything correctly then

the primary system is 158-39...right?

the secondary system after 3-games is 41-1....right?

if you were to risk 100 dolllarrs on each bet of your 5-game chase you would be risking
1st bet ....100
2nd bet.....200
3rd.bet.....400
4th bet....800
5th bet...1600

total risk if you had to go the fulll 5-games of the chase would be 3100 to win 100.

if went with a 2-game chase on your primary system and a 3-game chase on your secondary system....raising your bet amounts...im thinking you would make alot more money with less agravation...just figuring this using 100 bets/no juice...to make it easier...

1st bet.....500
2nd bet....1000

so primary system that has gone 158-39 would be
158 winners x 500 = 79,000
39 losers x 1500 =58,500
profit=20,500
using 2-game chase.

going with 5-game chase....
which is 197-3
197 winners at 100=19700

3-losers at 3100=9300

total 5-game chase profit=10200

and, secondary system that has gone 41-1 after 3-game chase would be risking same total of 1500 broken into 250 dollars plays...250-500-750
41 winners x 250= 8250
1-loser = 1500
total profit=6750

using 5-game chase at 100 risk.....
42-0 return would be plus 4200


well look at what im suggesting....not sure if i understand everything about your system...look at it and see if i make sense...thanks.

gluck burgh..

 

[LordofBalls]

Burgh....

heres a few quick thoughts...

1) I think its too late to drastically change my pattern this last month of the season... but I have increased amt on 1st 2 bets...

2) one of the reasons I have been keeping record updated daily is to get feedback from people... thank you for yours

3) I believe after looking at all these breakdowns the best way to do the system for the season is to stop after bet #3... take the loss and move on...

The big question is how much to play per unit on bet 1, 2 and 3... and how much bankroll does it take?

4) PRIMARY SYSTEM IS 183-17 (if you stop after the 3rd bet)
so....
if playing to win $300 profit 1st 2 bets, $200 on 3rd
#1 to win 300 (has won 104 times x 300 = 31,200)
#2 to win 600 (has won 54 times x 300 = 16,200)
#3 to win 1100 (has won 25 times x 200 = 5000)
= + $52,400

Losses would be 17 x 2000 = 34,000 + juice = - $37,400
GRAND TOTAL PRIMARY SYSTEM = + $15,000


5) SECONDARY SYSTEM - I have only tracked since all-star break, but I do know that it went to bet #4 5 times in 1st half of season (winning 4 of them)...
so...
if we stopped after bet #3... there would be 6 losses in (ss) and 112 wins... so again... assuming the same approximate distribution on the 112 wins...

56 wins on bet #1 == 56 x 300 = $16,800
30 wins on bet #2 == 30 x 300 = $9,000
26 wins on bet #3 == 26 x 200 = $5,200
total wins in (ss) = 31,000
6 losses @ 2,000 ea = -$12,000 + juice = - $13,200

GRAND Total (ss) == + $17,800

Total between both systems up to this point of season is approximately $33,000

Again...
I agree stopping after bet #3 appears to be the best way!

I will do that next season... the question is size of wagers and bankroll required...

Talk Soon Steel!! Thanks!!

BoL~LoB
:SIB


Lets take a little while and keep these figs in mind... talk again soon

 

[mercury]

Lord,
I have been watching your system since it started, and I think you may have something there, especially what you propose in modifying it.But there is the matter of juice not accounted for on your 2nd and third bets;you would not have a profit of $9000 on the second bet because you would have lost at least $330 on the first bet.
so you would have to subtract at least $30 for a -110 bet and even more for -115 and -120. And if goes even deeper for the third bet.
Evenwith those adjusted figures it appears you have a winning system there.Just wanted to point out that one has to account for juice on winning bets as well as the losing ones-and they are not always 10%.If I am wrong on all this would appreciate your pointing it outLooking forward to using your system next year as it evolves.Great job.I enjoy reading your posts every day.It is especially nice to read someone who knows the difference between your and you're , to and too, and there and their, 3 of my pet peeves of guys who don't know the difference.

 

[LordofBalls]

mercury....

I know what you mean about the their there thing lol... :142smilie

on all the winning bets... you play to make a set amt profit... on top of whatever juice has been previously lost and is figured in already and profit remains true...

on losing bets... you see at the end of the total where I approximate 10% juice on top of total losses...it might be higher, but not much i believe...

I use 10% cuz believe it or not... there's many times that its even juice or -05 and has even been +juice before... so I used 10% as an average...

the main thing is trying to identify what amts can be affordable to deal with during those 1st 3 bets...
it sucks to have to deal w/bet #4's and higher!

this has been the most drastic week of the season with all these gms in secondary system going into bet 3's.... weird!! :shrug:

Lets get some winners starting Tuesday!!


Bol to You and All of Us!!


LoB
:SIB

 

[mercury]

Lord,
Thanks for your reply.I understand now that you would have to figure in the juice on the second or third chase bet.I think I will do this next year and stay with the $100 to make on all bets.Why be greedy and try to make more. Better to avoid all that anxiety.
Good luck to you and the others who are following your system this year.I will be looking for what you have to say at the end of the season.

Mercury

 

[LordofBalls]

mercury...

if you did that... the most you can lose on any one tm in a series is about $700 plus juice...

and when u do the math over the entire season... its definitely a profitable endeavor...



BoL to USALL!!

:SIB