Hopkins-DLH and more 9/18 picks

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +10 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 10-4 +1.1
.5 unit plays: 43-17 +5.45
Dogs: 14-22 +1.45

Hopkins over DLH -230 1/2 unit (winner)

Hopkins wins in rounds 7-9 +700 lay .1 to win .7 (winner)
Hopkins win in rounds 10-12 +700 lay .15 to win 1 unit (loser)
Hopkins-DLH Draw +2000 lay .05 to win 1 unit (loser)

Jantuah over Rubio +180 lay .15 to win .25 (winner)
Jantuah-Rubio under 9.5 +125 lay .2 to win .25 (winner)

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

gw
I was looking at the Marquez-Salido over 8.5 at +112...any thoughts?

 

[gardenweasel]

actually,i was looking at the jantuah/rubio under.....9.5 at +125?.....not bad...

no guaratees... but if i could get it,i`d put a little on it...

salido`s a little shorter than marquez....and marquez takes his time(as we saw in round 1 vs pacquaio...lol)....

salido really isn`t a top 10 guy....he`s on a nice streak lately....but basically fighting fringe guys....certainly nobody like marquez....and he`s been stopped a number of times....although he`s one of those guy`s that started in his teens....he`s only 23 now...

they`re looking to give marquez a safe work-out....

i`d say it`s up to marquez....does he want the work?....or is he trying to make a statement?....and blowing out salido isn`t really making any kind of statement....

salido`s a pressure fighter....he may well walk into those marquez combo`s and counters.....and those weird hook-uppercuts...

i can`t help you....i really don`t know marquez` frame of mind here...

here`s another opinion...

"This may be a downer for Marquez, coming off the Pacquiao draw. Marquez, a veteran of 45 fights, is a true professional with enough skill to defeat the outclassed Salido on his worst night. Salido's busy, he'll need to let his hands go to be competitive. In doing so, he risks walking into Marquez's counter punches. Marquez by stoppage, before round nine."

i really think it`s up to marquez...i suspect he`ll casually break down salido much like he did marcoas licona(tko 9)...unless salido gets overly aggressive....and as i said,he comes forward.....then it might happen earlier...

g.l. whatever you do...

 

[gardenweasel]

p.s....i believe that salido is a stablemate of marquez....very odd....

and supposedly his mandatory....

are they friends?....to much crap to consider...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I'll probably leave it alone

Hopkins now -200 at pinnacle

Lem Banker is on DLH!!!

I made some small changes to my plays above. Made my play on Hopkins for a half unit only. I still think if this goes to the cards DLH has a decent chance of winning, especially since it would set up a huge rematch $$$.

One thing to watch for tomarrow night is DLH's protective belt. Seems like at the beginning of his fights his belt is in the right spot but after a few rounds it starts riding high covering up everything below his elboes leaving no room to hit. There's no dought it will happen again tomarrow night greatly affecting Hopkins work to the body.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Hopkins weighs in at 156
DLH weighs in at 155
The catchweight for this fight was 158

Note: DLH weighed 160 for the Sturm fight

 

[trolln4walii]

Good luck on Hopkins tomorrow BOXLOCKS. I'm on him myself. My only off-shore that carries boxing is BOS and I had to play it at -230 tonight. What other accounts do you use that have boxing wagers?

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Pinnacle
5dimes
Olympic

There are a few other sponsor books that have lines on the big fights only, but the above books are the best. Pinnacle covers the most fights. 5dimes covers most of what Pinnacle has and offers a wider variety of wagers. Oly has been slacking lately, I don't recommend them right now.

Pinnacle offers 10 cent lines which is very unusual in boxing.

gl bl

 

[OverUnder]

BetCris offers a lot of boxing and also has props for the fight.

 

[gardenweasel]

i don`t want to offend anybody but,lem banker?.....

i know he`s some omnipotent
gambling god...but,from what i`ve seen of his plays(senor capper is good enough to post some of them...thanks),he fades the public,in many instances.....


when he loses,nobody pays attention because the favorite wins...no big deal....but when he wins,it looks like a revelation and he gets enormous credit....very shrewd.....

not saying dlh can`t win..oscar`s a great fighter..or mr banker can`t be right on this one......just saying i`d never let a lem banker,or anybody,sway me on a play that i handicapped out myself....particularly regarding boxing...

just my opinion....

the money is starting to come in on dlh....just as we thought...the dlh fan club has apparently hit vegas....

should be interesting...

 

[gardenweasel]

i will say this...i saw one weigh in picture...and hopkins looked drawn....he looked very gaunt....

where are the best weigh in photos that aren`t on a subscription site?....

i`m not paying those rat bastards for weigh in pics...

and i meant no disrespect to lem banker...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I admit that Lem's play on DLH made me think a little but its not the reason I downsized my play on Hopkins. The line on this fight has been up for 6 months but I couldn't get myself to pull the trigger on Hopkins untill late Thursday night. There are to many variables to this fight for me to make a big play on Hopkins and the weigh-in made my decision even harder.

DLH weighed in 1 pound over the junior-middle limit and Hopkins weighed in only one pound heavier so Hopkins will not be that much bigger than DLH.

DLH weighs 5 pounds less than he weighed against Sturm which proves he wasn't in shape for that fight. I don't think we can judge what will happen tonight based on DLH's performance against Sturm, he will be a completely different fighter.

The complexity of this fight has changed completely. I was looking at this fight as DLH stepping up to 160 to take on Hopkins. But now its more like Hopkins moving down to 154 to take on DLH.

My man g.w. even said the only great fighter Hopkins has beat is Trinidad who was a blown up welterweight trying to fight at 160. DLH schooled Trinidad in the first half of their fight before giving the decision away by quiting in the second half.

Halfway through the rematch Mosley's dad asked him why he wasn't throwing the right hand more and Shane responded with "he's got a quicker left hook". Thats quite a compliment coming from Shane and it makes me remember how good DLH looked in that fight (at 154) most thought he beat Mosely easily.

After seeing the weigh-ins I can't help but think DLH will be very sharp. He's basically fighting at 154 which is a familiar and comfortable weight and proves he is in much better shape for this fight. You can throw the Sturm fight out the window here as this will be a completely different DLH.

Hopkins now -192 at Pinnacle

 

[gardenweasel]

i`m stil on hopkins....for the record...i just hope we don`t get a hometown decision.....

if dlh gets a gift,it could really hurt boxing...personally,i`m getting tired of handicapping all this superfluous crap in fights....

if we were all intellectually honest,it would be sturm fighting hopkins....not dlh....

that`s unfortunate...can he be gifted back to back decisions in vegas?.....

if bob arum and lou moretti have anything to do with it,certainly...

let the chips fall...hopefully,fairly...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

The crowd and the judges are definitly bigger concerns than what I rambled about above.

 

[gardenweasel]

actually i`m lying...i hedged hopkins with dlh by decision at+360...when i heard that the 2 refs from dlh/sturm were involved...

for all my high minded b.s. about sticking to my guns,i caved a little...

my very large(for me) hopkins wager has now been halved.....

and i covered my ass....

but,if the odds drop again dramatically,i might grab a little back...will have to drop substantially....

i`m very happy i got hopkins early....it enabled me to cover myself....

 

[UT-Longhorn]

just heard DLH has a cut that required stitches on his ring finger, 11 total, will add 10 more units on Hopkins, good luck fellas.....

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Credible source???

Anyone else hear this???

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Credible source???

Anyone else hear this???

Oscar De La Hoya sustained a cut on his left hand Wednesday that required 11 stitches, ESPN has learned, but Saturday night's middleweight championship fight against Bernard Hopkins isn't in jeopardy.


De La Hoya was cut underneath the ring finger when his trainer accidentally sliced him while removing tape after Wednesday's training session.




From ESPN.com

It was obvious that the painkillers were affecting DLH tonight he looked drugged as early as the ringwalk; it was obvious the cut was hindering him.......

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Great start to the night as Jantuah drops Rubio in 33 seconds!!!

 

[gardenweasel]

no complaints so far.....looking good...i couldn`t believe they gave us 9.5 rounds AND odds on the jantuah/rubio under....

let`s keep it going...