wednesday was a day to forget. not only was the capping awful, but i was about 90% of the way through a lengthy writeup on the three horizon league games for thursday.....and the computer crashed on me. one of those friggin days. 
if there was a 'fu.ck technology' smiley, id insert it here.
as i was going over my notes, ive started to wonder why im betting a whole lot of games outside this horizon. been hitting almost 68% in this league dating back to early january. mac has had its great moments, but also its fair share of aggravation and collapses. the trusty horizon though --- it never fails me and my teams finish what they start. :box2:
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detroit at youngstown
playing: under whatever number comes out
ysu is bad, bad news but this too much road chalk for detroit. when these two teams get together in youngstown, the games are painful on the eyes. detroit has taken the last two in youngstown by scores of 56-46 and 57-49. worth noting that the penguins have been have more than a week off to prepare for this one. that could be a factor in this game, as the horizon league schedule can be grueling at times (lots of teams have 3 gms in 5 nights throughout the season). then again, the penguins are not a good team so it might not matter. just when i started to get the feeling that ysu might be a live dog (or at least a dog that detroit would overlook), i laughed when i saw how bad ysu has been offensively against the detroit defense.
youngstown points vs. detroit the last 4 meetings:
46 points on 31% shooting. 25 turnovers.
43 points on 31% shooting. 13 turnovers.
52 points on 37% shooting. 22 turnovers.
49 points on 34% shooting. 12 turnovers.
those numbers are as convincing as any ive seen this season.
throw in the fact that detroit has been a little erratic with their offense on the road in their last four away games (just 60ppg) and i think this game is a dead under, and it will be a dead under even if the vegas total is in the 100-teens.
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loyola at butler
playing: nothing
lean to butler, but dont like the fact that its their 4th game in 8 days (and the first three were on the road over a span of just 5 days). otherwise, id be all over the bulldogs. loyola is horrific on the road except for an upset against a uwgb team that has come down to earth recently. ramblers have dropped 15 straight to butler in indianapolis and they havent been very competitive here recently. last 3 years in indy, butler has won by 17 pts, 7 pts, and 30 pts. bulldogs are coming off one of their best games of the year against uwgb a few nights back, but i have to keep in in perspective. uwgb is not as good as their record and they caught them off an upset of milwaukee. they did a ton of great things in that game but not sure if theyre gonna show signs of fatigue here. passing with a small lean to butler given the way loyola fares in the fieldhouse.
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uwgb at cleveland state
playing: cleveland state (-2.5)
at the risk of pontificating, im gonna say that one of the biggest keys to betting small conference basketball is being able to deal with the natural ebb and flow that occurs during the course of a season and recognize when teams might start to streak. when teams get hot in these mid-major conferences, they are capable of going on extended spread runs.
right now, csu is playing its best basketball in probably 3 or 4 years. ostensibly, a 3 game winning streak isnt enough to raise a lot of eyebrows, but from what ive seen out of them the last week and a half, its becoming apparent that they are starting to turn the corner a little bit and make their way back toward being a formidable horizon league team.
they are doing all the little things that are necessary to win on this level. theyre shooting the ball well, theyre playing the game at THEIR tempo, and most importantly, they are taking care of the basketball. i cant emphasize that last one enough. as spang can attest, when the vikings played in akron, they covered the game and cashed for us, but csu made so many careless mistakes it wasnt funny. and thats something that has plagued them for a few years now. but ever since garland inserted redell into the starting lineup a few weeks ago, the vikings have been so much better in the turnover department. he is doing sort of what todd billet did for virginia the last few years --- hes running the offense and keeping everything under control on a team of athletes that can be very undisciplined at times. he's just very calm and doesnt play stupid basketball. and because of it, csu is winning and competing in every game now.
csu last 3 games:
record: 3-0
field goal percentage: 51% (79/154)
free throw percentage: 75% (46-61)
turnovers per game: 12.6
(season average is over 17 turnovers a game. cant overstate how well redell has run the team since taking over at the point)
in comes green bay. theyre 14-6 on the season. csu is 7-10. vikes are laying 2.5. that line tells me what ive already believed to be true: uwgb is not as good as their record would lead you to believe, and csu is sub-.500 but just might be the hottest team in the horizon the last week and a half.
vikings put themselves in a position to win the first meeting outright in green bay as 10 point underdogs. uwgb won 81-76 but csu led almost the entire first half and the lead changed hands frequently in the 2nd half before uwgb pulled away in the final minutes and won by 5.
uwgb is a favorable matchup for csu. omari westley has probably had more success against uwgb than any other team he has played against, averaging 23 pts and almost 10 rebounds against the phoenix. in the first meeting, he went off for 38 pts.
last season when csu was depleted and dressing 7 guys, they took uwgb to the wire in both games and lost the two meetings by a combined 3 points. the game in cleveland ended on a game-winning shot by uwgb's rohde right before the buzzer.
now csu is at full-strength, moss is healthy and redell is at the point. really think the vikings keep this streak going. there is sense of confidence that is almost visible with this team right now. theyre doing stuff they havent done in quite some time. theyre playing unselfishly, theyre playing together, and theyre playing hard.
as ive said before, i feel like this is the team ive got the best read on of any division-1 basketball team. have played just 3 games this year and am 3-0. im fully expecting to be 4-0 at the end of thursday night.
and this will likely be the last time i play a csu game until possibly february 23rd. the vikes have some very tough games ahead (detroit is up next and csu has always struggled with the titans defensive pressure, and the butler rematch follows in indy -- a place where the vikings have been absolutely miserable in recent years).
so im gonna take a good shot on csu thursday night. expecting another solid effort from them as they start to turn the corner. and i might just buy another ticket after seeing how nicely the butler game went a few games ago.
the first three times ive played csu, theyve all been relatively easy wins. uwgb is a good test for them, but with the way theyre playing right now, they should take care of business.
sounds strange saying it --- but cleveland state is laying these 2.5 points for a reason against a 14-6 team in 2nd place.
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if there was a 'fu.ck technology' smiley, id insert it here.as i was going over my notes, ive started to wonder why im betting a whole lot of games outside this horizon. been hitting almost 68% in this league dating back to early january. mac has had its great moments, but also its fair share of aggravation and collapses. the trusty horizon though --- it never fails me and my teams finish what they start. :box2:
===============================
detroit at youngstown
playing: under whatever number comes out
ysu is bad, bad news but this too much road chalk for detroit. when these two teams get together in youngstown, the games are painful on the eyes. detroit has taken the last two in youngstown by scores of 56-46 and 57-49. worth noting that the penguins have been have more than a week off to prepare for this one. that could be a factor in this game, as the horizon league schedule can be grueling at times (lots of teams have 3 gms in 5 nights throughout the season). then again, the penguins are not a good team so it might not matter. just when i started to get the feeling that ysu might be a live dog (or at least a dog that detroit would overlook), i laughed when i saw how bad ysu has been offensively against the detroit defense.
youngstown points vs. detroit the last 4 meetings:
46 points on 31% shooting. 25 turnovers.
43 points on 31% shooting. 13 turnovers.
52 points on 37% shooting. 22 turnovers.
49 points on 34% shooting. 12 turnovers.
those numbers are as convincing as any ive seen this season.
throw in the fact that detroit has been a little erratic with their offense on the road in their last four away games (just 60ppg) and i think this game is a dead under, and it will be a dead under even if the vegas total is in the 100-teens.
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loyola at butler
playing: nothing
lean to butler, but dont like the fact that its their 4th game in 8 days (and the first three were on the road over a span of just 5 days). otherwise, id be all over the bulldogs. loyola is horrific on the road except for an upset against a uwgb team that has come down to earth recently. ramblers have dropped 15 straight to butler in indianapolis and they havent been very competitive here recently. last 3 years in indy, butler has won by 17 pts, 7 pts, and 30 pts. bulldogs are coming off one of their best games of the year against uwgb a few nights back, but i have to keep in in perspective. uwgb is not as good as their record and they caught them off an upset of milwaukee. they did a ton of great things in that game but not sure if theyre gonna show signs of fatigue here. passing with a small lean to butler given the way loyola fares in the fieldhouse.
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uwgb at cleveland state
playing: cleveland state (-2.5)
at the risk of pontificating, im gonna say that one of the biggest keys to betting small conference basketball is being able to deal with the natural ebb and flow that occurs during the course of a season and recognize when teams might start to streak. when teams get hot in these mid-major conferences, they are capable of going on extended spread runs.
right now, csu is playing its best basketball in probably 3 or 4 years. ostensibly, a 3 game winning streak isnt enough to raise a lot of eyebrows, but from what ive seen out of them the last week and a half, its becoming apparent that they are starting to turn the corner a little bit and make their way back toward being a formidable horizon league team.
they are doing all the little things that are necessary to win on this level. theyre shooting the ball well, theyre playing the game at THEIR tempo, and most importantly, they are taking care of the basketball. i cant emphasize that last one enough. as spang can attest, when the vikings played in akron, they covered the game and cashed for us, but csu made so many careless mistakes it wasnt funny. and thats something that has plagued them for a few years now. but ever since garland inserted redell into the starting lineup a few weeks ago, the vikings have been so much better in the turnover department. he is doing sort of what todd billet did for virginia the last few years --- hes running the offense and keeping everything under control on a team of athletes that can be very undisciplined at times. he's just very calm and doesnt play stupid basketball. and because of it, csu is winning and competing in every game now.
csu last 3 games:
record: 3-0
field goal percentage: 51% (79/154)
free throw percentage: 75% (46-61)
turnovers per game: 12.6
(season average is over 17 turnovers a game. cant overstate how well redell has run the team since taking over at the point)
in comes green bay. theyre 14-6 on the season. csu is 7-10. vikes are laying 2.5. that line tells me what ive already believed to be true: uwgb is not as good as their record would lead you to believe, and csu is sub-.500 but just might be the hottest team in the horizon the last week and a half.
vikings put themselves in a position to win the first meeting outright in green bay as 10 point underdogs. uwgb won 81-76 but csu led almost the entire first half and the lead changed hands frequently in the 2nd half before uwgb pulled away in the final minutes and won by 5.
uwgb is a favorable matchup for csu. omari westley has probably had more success against uwgb than any other team he has played against, averaging 23 pts and almost 10 rebounds against the phoenix. in the first meeting, he went off for 38 pts.
last season when csu was depleted and dressing 7 guys, they took uwgb to the wire in both games and lost the two meetings by a combined 3 points. the game in cleveland ended on a game-winning shot by uwgb's rohde right before the buzzer.
now csu is at full-strength, moss is healthy and redell is at the point. really think the vikings keep this streak going. there is sense of confidence that is almost visible with this team right now. theyre doing stuff they havent done in quite some time. theyre playing unselfishly, theyre playing together, and theyre playing hard.
as ive said before, i feel like this is the team ive got the best read on of any division-1 basketball team. have played just 3 games this year and am 3-0. im fully expecting to be 4-0 at the end of thursday night.
and this will likely be the last time i play a csu game until possibly february 23rd. the vikes have some very tough games ahead (detroit is up next and csu has always struggled with the titans defensive pressure, and the butler rematch follows in indy -- a place where the vikings have been absolutely miserable in recent years).
so im gonna take a good shot on csu thursday night. expecting another solid effort from them as they start to turn the corner. and i might just buy another ticket after seeing how nicely the butler game went a few games ago.
the first three times ive played csu, theyve all been relatively easy wins. uwgb is a good test for them, but with the way theyre playing right now, they should take care of business.
sounds strange saying it --- but cleveland state is laying these 2.5 points for a reason against a 14-6 team in 2nd place.
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