horizon league thursday .....

gman2

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wright state at detroit
line: detroit (-5.5)
playing: nothing

two good programs that have struggled in the last few weeks. titans have lost 5 of their last 6, the most recent of which (must we revisit?) was the monumental 24-point 2nd half collapse at cleveland state where they turned a 49-25 lead into a 69-62 loss. wright state was on their way to losing their 5th straight game before they made a late rally to steal a game from butler on monday, which was really a game that butler controlled pretty much the entire way. two really sound defensive teams both playing below their potential right now. first meeting this year was dominated by wright state. final was 63-57 but it really wasnt that close. wright shot 52% against a good detroit defense and the raiders outrebounded udm 33-21, while shoting 22 FTs to detroit's 8. game was on its way to landing around 105-107 points until detroit turned it into a foul fest in the final minute. wright state REALLY struggles to score on the road in horizon play, averaging just 60 pts in their 5 gms outside dayton.

cleveland state at butler
line: butler (-9)
playing:pass for now, waiting on total
update: playing under 130.5

the euphoria of the detroit comeback win might be short-lived, because hinkle fieldhouse has been an absolute nightmare for cleveland state in recent years. its the one game that, before the season starts, you can pretty much pencil in as a butler rout. vikings haven't even stayed within 10 points of butler in indy in over 5 years. the last 3 years havent even been competitive. vikings have lost by 18, 16, and 25 while AVERAGING just 48.3 ppg. theres no doubt that csu is much improved, and butler is in a down year. but nobody on this csu roster has ever been on the floor in a competitive game at butler. throw in the fact that csu absolutely embarrassed butler in cleveland 2 weeks ago (trailed 16-0 out of the gate and lost 77-57) and i think the bulldogs might exact some revenge. having seen the csu/butler game in person, im not in a hurry to run and lay 9 pts with butler, but a blowout wouldnt surprise me. what im interested in is the total. if its reasonable, im going under. csu totally controlled the tempo in cleveland. no way butler lets csu get out and run in indy. anything 127 or higher, im going under.

uodating the post:
first meeting this year was 77-57. that was a game where csu really made an effort to get out and force butler to run with them. bulldogs were totally out of their element and the total still only touched 134 (and needed a few hoops in the final minute to do so). not to be redundant, but just cannot see butler allowing csu to come into hinkle and control the pace again, especially since the last meeting was a 20-pt blowout. grabbed under 130.5 as soon as it came out.
 
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gman2

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cooler:
olympic has every 2h total for every game and theyre posted very quickly. but they dont offer 2h ml's (they used to though). betcris does though. i think thats one of the best things about them.


uw-milwaukee at loyola-chicago
line: uw-milwaukee (-6.5)
playing: nothing

stating the obvious but this line is shady, especially since its come down from 7 last night. normally i can make a case for an ugly dog, but cant do it here. one thing that IS in loyola's favor is that 6 of the L10 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less. aside from that, loyola bettors are going in with a slingshot and a pebble. uwm took the first meeting by 17 in milwaukee. im really lookin for a reason to take loyola....any reason. wisconsin-milwaukee lookahead maybe? nope. mighty youngstown state awaits. the best reason i can find is that its a potential letdown spot for uwm, as the panthers are coming off a string of 4 huge games (purdue on the road, then green bay in a rivalry game for 1st place on the road, then wright state on the road, and then home to ill-chicago on national tv) so this one can certainly be less than inspiring for uwm. i just gotta pass this one though. if i had any faith in the ramblers, i would grab the points. but i dont. it wouldnt be a huge shock if loyola stayed close and threatened for an upset if uwm is flat after that string of big games. but ramblers just arent good and dont warrant any of my money.


youngstown state at illinois-chicago
line: illinois-chicago (-21)
playing: lean to under. depends on total
update: playing under 128, but a little more on the csu total

at first glance, it seems like an obscene amount of points for uic to lay. after all, flames are only 10-10 on the season. but ysu is so fu.cking bad on the road its not funny. if a .500 uic team is laying 21, i cant imagine what uwm will be laying at home on saturday night....27?..28 maybe?

is illinois-chicago going to be motivated to bury ysu after the flames are coming off a big national tv game against uwm? im not sure. but considering this is the penguins road resume, does anyone have big enough stones to grab the points?

at sms L 88-52
at se louisiana L 77-55
ar wright L 72-51
at duquesne L 78-54
at uwgb L 78-55
at cle st L 78-62
at ipfw L 79-59
at butler L 50-37
at loyola L 71-50

-21 is starting to look like a bargain. but ill wait on a total
 
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Kdogg21

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tough game, but UIC only beat them earlier by 6 pts this year. I may take the pts, but if anything stay away.
GL
 

gman2

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winder:

absolutely. i would love to see a 131 on the game. ive been meaning to ask you how your local gets his totals so early in the day (if he uses his own #s or if he pulls them from somewhere offshore or in vegas who get their totals out early) because i think anything in the high 120s is even too much.

here's some more stuff on that one that i think points to an under:

illinois-chicago points allowed at the pavilion since january 1st:

vs. penn (47 pts)
vs. detroit (57 pts)
vs. cle st (57 pts)
vs. butler (49 pts)

youngstown already has serious scoring issues. not gonna help to be playing in a gym where uic really locks down on the defensive end.

also, the last 3 meetings have gone well under.

(earlier this season) uic 62-56
(last yr at ysu) uic 62-58
(last yr at uic) uic 66-47
going back a little further would be a 138-pt game and a 120-pt game.

my only hesitation in really hitting this one hard is that with the line at 21, a blowout is expected. while that does eliminate fouls at the end, i just get a little worried that if uic is up 15 or 17 at halftime, the 2h might be sloppy and lack defensive intensity.

but ultimately, i think we're looking at a 70-53 kind of game.
 

HoopsGuru

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gman have a suggestion for you. every time you throw out an under pick, i have taken it for the 1st half and it almost always cashes. i never take game unders due to the fouls at the end. seems like you're under picks always are covering by like 10 at the half and sometimes get screwed by fouls. just a suggestion to play the 1st half line.
 

gman2

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guru:

thanks for the post. kinda felt like that might have been the case, and your post confirmed it (that a lot of my totals go under easy for the 1h, but then with fouling get dicey in the final minutes of the game). appreciate the heads up. uic 1h might be worth a look then because the defensive intensity should be there in the 1h as the game is still gonna be semi-respectable. will see what it is when it comes out. probably gonna be like 59 or so i would think.
 

thewinder

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he pulls the numbers from a site. but i don't think i can post websites, or can i?
 

LuckyIrish

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GL Gman....just posted my early OVER ----- Wright/Det OVER 56.5...just think thats a bit low.

GL!!! $$$$
 

thewinder

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i apologize. after all your stats, i started thinking, wow what a gift.
i was looking at the butler game. ill chic/ysu o/u is 125.5.

sorry for the mis-post.
 

gman2

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lots of variation on the csu/butler total

wallstreet/gameday/vip
130 game, 60 1h

olympic
128.5 game, 58.5 1h

pinnacle
129.5 game, 59.5 under with heavy -136 juice
opened here at 130.5 for the game



youngstown total is a solid 60 for the 1h everywhere, and 127.5 pretty much everywhere too.
 

bjfinste

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Took both the 130 and 60 at Gameday. I'd give some thoughts, but, well, they pretty much mirror yours. No question Butler will try (and should find success in doing so) to keep it slow. Best of luck to us.
 

Bill

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OK G, as you know, I am slower than most. I cannot decide if yo are taking csu and uic over or under. I do not think I have ever seen you make an over bet but.... maybe.

What did I miss. :shrug:

Thanks, :mj14:
Bill
 

gman2

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Bill said:
OK G, as you know, I am slower than most. I cannot decide if yo are taking csu and uic over or under. I do not think I have ever seen you make an over bet but.... maybe.

What did I miss. :shrug:

Thanks, :mj14:
Bill

abren sus ojos ! :mj07:

played both under. best of luck buddy. :)
 

Bill

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I try to keep up. I will simply assume that anyone can be a jerk at times and let it pass BUDDY.

AMF
 
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