HORSE RACING

[Lumi]

HORSE RACING
TODAY AT SANTA ANITA PARK

By Richard Eng

Post Time 1 p.m.

Race 1 - 6 1/2 furlongs (turf, rail at 24 feet), Purse $40,000, Maiden special weights, 3-year-olds and up

Milyone - With the turf rail out 24 feet, it should flatter his early speed; Mike Smith is a top send jockey.

Sky Victor - Tepid chalk in an open affair; can sit a favorable trip on the flank of Milyone and grind late.

Long Shot - Circle Diamond

Race 2 - 1 mile, Purse $25,000, Maiden claiming $50,000, 2-year-olds

Langfuhrious - Mike Mitchell has an uncoupled entry, this is the longer odds of the two; colt also has Garrett Gomez up.

Bustanai - Huge favorite off of one good race in last; taking the biggest class drop in racing from MSW to maiden claiming.

Long Shot - Fog Alert

Race 3 - 6 1/2 furlongs, Purse $22,000, Starter allowance $40,000, Fillies, 2-year-olds

A Little Polish - Laughing winner up at Pleasanton; test is facing winners for the first time, Joel Rosario up.

Ridemetothemoon - Tepid chalk was clearly overmatched in a grade 1; her race two back gives her a big shot today.

Long Shot - Sandy Cheeks

Race 4 - 1 mile, Purse $18,000, Maiden claiming $32,000, Fillies, 2-year-olds

Sheskey - Ran well in a 3-turn route at Fairplex; the winner will inherit the lead and survive the journey.

Miss Edyta - Chalk stretches out around 2-turns for the first time under Kayla Stra; best kind of horse for her.

Long Shot - Don't Reiterate

Race 5 - 6 furlongs, Purse $13,000, Claiming $12,500, 3-year-olds and up

Scottish Diamond - Typical Jeff Mullins challenge, easy win, then drops in class; have to count the legs in post parade.

Rathor - When Garrett Gomez shows up in a bottom feeder like this, I first ask why; four legs can win this.

Long Shot - Ballistic Heat

Race 6 - 1 1/16th miles, Purse $25,000, Maiden claiming $50,000, 3-year-olds and up

Never - Bob Baffert culls typically run better than you'd think; tactical speed to sit a perfect trip.

Tizwhen - Garrett Gomez has been riding cheap and maiden claimers like stakes horses; runs first time for a price tag.

Long Shot - Feeling Fabulous

Race 7 - 1 mile (turf, rail at 24 feet), Purse $44,000, Optional claiming $25,000, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Victory Dancer - Suspect Peter Miller will let him loose on the front end; edge with the turf rail out 24 feet.

Mama Rosa - Consistent sort has yet to bust thru with a big effort; she's an Unusual Heat for trainer Barry Abrams.

Long Shot - Warren's Appeal

Race 8 - 5 1/2 furlongs, Purse $17,000, Maiden claiming $32,000, 2-year-olds

Golden Boy Mark - Was overmatched in last MSW, now switches to Rafael Bejarano for the money shot; will be grinding late.

Cardiff Giant - Tepid chalk ran a winning race for this class in last; if he improves one step, he'll win this.

Long Shot - Lucks Mine

Best Bet - A Little Polish (race 3)

Santa Anita Wednesday - Picks/Winners/Mutuels, 15/4/$22.60; Long Shots, 7/2/$12.80; Best Bet, 1/0/$0

Santa Anita Totals - 200/50/$345.80; Long Shots, 100/16/$193.60; Best Bets, 12/7/$31.40

SIMULCAST PICK OF THE DAY - #2 Cruise (2/1) in race 4 at Hawthorne. For scoring purposes, we'll make a hypothetical $2 win, place and show bet, $6 total. On Wednesday, Pathway won at Hawthorne paying $4.20 to win, $3.00 to place and $2.20 to show. Stats - 150/113/$856.50

 

[Lumi]

At the Gate - Thursday

At the Gate - Thursday

At the Gate - Thursday


After producing a +24% +ROI with my top picks during the opening three days of the Keeneland meeting, we hit a pothole on Wednesday, with just one winner on top in eight races, with one race taken off the turf.

We had a couple of tough beats with my top picks. In the fifth race, Windham Hill dead heated for third at 18/1, right in the mix to the wire.

In the sixth race, my top pick was Silver Craft, who was sent off at 8/1. Clear in the stretch, the colt was nipped at the wire, despite the fact that in all three replays I thought we got up.

The good news is the runner that beat him was the first timer First of Rage ($21.00), who was my second choice in the race. The duo combined for a nice $216.60 exacta.





In the seventh, Your Round ran second as my top pick. In the eighth Tazarine ran a credible fourth as my top pick at 14/1.

After taking Wednesday off, Belmont Park is back in action today,

There is a good feature at Keeneland today. The $150,000 Jessamine Stakes is a Breeders? Cup Challenge ?Win and You?re In: race for the Breeders? Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

The race drew a full field of two year old fillies. My top pick is House of Grace, who really looked like a promising filly in her maiden victory at Saratoga back in August.


Here is today's opening race from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:

KEE Race 1 Md $50,000 (1:05 ET)
#11 Straight Talk 5/1
#7 Onelifeisnotenough 7/2
#12 Bulletproof Spirit 6/1
#2 Consulate 6/1

Analysis: #11 Straight Talk drops out of a $75K maiden claimer at the Spa where the gelding caught mud in a race taken off the turf. The gelding was third and fifth in two tries over poly at Arlington back in the spring. His best effort came going long on the turf at the Spa, rallying for fourth while beaten just two lengths for the top spot. The stretch out should suit here for the Motion barn that is 17% winners moving runners from sprint to route. The gelding is by Macho Uno out of the stakes winner No Foul Play ($545K) who has dropped four other foals to race, all winners, top earner stakes winner Temporary Saint ($405K).

#7 Onelifeisnotenough took some action on the toe in his two trips, both on turf. He was sixth in his debut at Ellis at 4/1, then was the beaten fav last out at Kentucky Downs, catching soft turf. Finds an easier spot here for the Arnold barn that is off to a good start at the meet (5-2-3-0). The colt is a half to a pair of winners, top earner stakes winner Munnings ($617K).

Wagering
WIN: #11 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 7,11 / 2,7,11,12
TRI: 7,11 / 2,7,11,12 / 2,4,7,9,11,12

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 Clm $35,000 (4:45 ET)
#7 Right of Way 4/1
#6 Mississippi Man 6/1
#3 Headache 2/1
#8 Woodacre 3/1

Analysis: #7 Right of Way drops out of a $50K claimer on the turf where the gelding set the early fractions and faded to finish eighth. Two of his three career wins have come over wet tracks, his last win coming over the main track here in the slop back in June. Looks like a good spot here on the class drop, the surface switch, and this guy looks extra dangerous if the track comes up wet.

#6 Mississippi Man got a 2 1/2 month break after showing speed and fading in each of his last two starts. He went real quick early last out at the Spa and just packed it in badly against $60K claimers. He has landed in the exacta in 3 of 4 trips over wet tracks and three back went gate to wire to beat $60K foes over the main track here in June. Ramon departs to ride the ML fav in here for the Maker barn.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 3,6,7,8
TRI: 6,7 / 3,6,7,8 / 3,4,6,7,8

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 8 Jessamine S. (4:35 ET)
#3 House of Grace 7/2
#7 Hatheer 3/1
#5 Smart Seattle 5/2
#6 Waynetta 12/1

Analysis: #3 House of Grace was a good looking maiden winner in her debut at the Spa and did it over ground labeled as good. The turf was soft yesterday and there is still some rain in the forecast for today. The third and fourth place finisher in her debut came back to graduate next out while the runner up Beautiful Song came back to run a decent third in the PG Johnson at Saratoga on Sept. 3. She has a decent pedigree, by Limehouse out of the stakes winner Gracility ($246K), who did her best work sprinting on the dirt.

#7 Hatheer showed some early zip dueling for the early lead from the inside and drew off late to break her maiden in her second career start. The runner up Dad's Crazy won the off the turf Ms Grillo in her next start on Oct. 4 at Belmont Park. A real nice pedigree on this gal, by Storm Cat out of the stakes winner Golden Apples ($1.67 million) who has dropped one other foal to race, stakes winner Habaya ($135K).

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,5,6,7
TRI: 3,7 / 3,5,6,7 / 2,3,5,6,7,12

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Keeneland
R2:#9 Miss Kristie Whiz 8/1
R4: #8 George Ray 12/1
R8: #6 Waynetta 12/1
R9: #3 Get Ready Go 10/1

Belmont Park
R1: #3 Hangingonaprayer 10/1
R2: #11 Dundee 8/1
R4: #9 Too Amenable 10/1
R4: #1 Stormy Success 15/1
R7: #7 Too Critical 15/1
R7: #8 My Two Cents 8/1
R9: #6 Driven by Royalty 8/1

Good luck today!

 

[Lumi]

Post Experts Pick the Winners

Post Experts Pick the Winners

Post Experts Pick the Winners

 

[Lumi]

Belmont Analysis

Belmont Analysis

Belmont Analysis

Post Time: 1:00 p.m. All horses appear in post position




Today's analysis.

1. 6 fur(T); $25,000; clm($25,000); 3up(f)

HANGINGONAPRAYER drops in class for new barn after running evenly while going shorter last out. MINDBENDER drops in class after finishing fourth in last two starts. IBERIAN GATE drops in class after tiring badly and being claimed. Entrymate BESO DEL SUR finished third versus the boys this distance.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
2 Kevazinga(L),120 E Castro 3-4-5 Duggan 6-1
3 Hangingonaprayer(L),120 J Lezcano 6-3-3 CMartin 10-1
1 a-Iberian Gate(L),116 E Prado 10-3-6 Rice 7-2
4 Sister's Speed(L),111 L Saez 3-8-7 Contessa 20-1
5 Mindbender(L),116 C Velasquez 4-4-2 AJerkens 5-2
6 Ed's Princess(L),120 S Morales 5-1-4 Lotruglio 12-1
1A a-Beso Del Sur(L),117 R Dominguez 3-9-1 Rice 7-2
7 Token Special(L),120 J Espinoza 2-2-9 Odintz 6-1
8 Zip by You(L),120 R Maragh 5-7-7 Grennan 12-1
9 Risky Gamble(L),117 O Bocachica 3-1-6 Signore 8-1
10 Tutti Va Bene(L),116 C Hill 9-1-5 Sciacca 12-1
11 Sophisticated Lass(L),120 . 5-1-6 RDutrow 3-1

2. 7 fur(T); $41,000; mdn; 2YO

QUICK MONEY set the pace and tired to third as the favorite in an off the turf race. He was a beaten favorite in only start on turf. IRVING RULES from good first out barn and races with Lasix for career debut. IM HOOKED UP adds Lasix for turf debut after a troubled trip in career debut.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Magnificent Tiger(L),120 C Velasquez 3-8-8 Penna 7-2
2 Timber Cat(L),120 J Castellano 4-x-x Bush 10-1
3 Singing Low(L),120 R Rodriguez 9-x-x Feron 50-1
4 Unforgettable P J,120 J Espinoza x-x-x POrtiz 30-1
5 Capridge(L),120 J Lezcano 9-11-7 Barbara 20-1
6 Quick Money(L),120 C Hill 3-8-x Rice 5-2
7 Jet to Classics(L),120 R Maragh 4-7-10 Hertler 12-1
8 Alltiffedoff,120 R Dominguez x-x-x Reynolds 8-1
9 I'm Hooked Up,120 S Morales 9-x-x Callejas 15-1
10 Irving Rules,120 E Prado x-x-x Pletcher 5-1
11 Dundee,120 D Cohen x-x-x SKlesaris 8-1

3. 6 fur; $34,000; mdn clm($75,000); 2YO(f)

QUANTITATIVEEASING drops in class after tiring when making career debut in July. LIMEHEART goes turf to dirt and drops in class in first start for new barn. CIMINELLA drew the rail after finishing second at this distance last out.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Ciminella(L),120 J Espinoza 2-3-10 CMartin 4-1
2 Exchange Funds,120 J Lezcano x-x-x Hennig 8-1
3 Glass Path,120 C Hill x-x-x Miceli 15-1
4 Rumpus Room(L),120 E Prado 6-5-8 Sciacca 10-1
5 Quantitativeeasing(L),120 R Maragh 7-x-x Violette 6-1
6 Haberdasher(L),120 R Dominguez 5-x-x Mclaughlin 3-1
7 Roman Chestnut(L),120 E Castro 3-11-x Gyarmati 15-1
8 Limeheart(L),120 J Castellano 6-3-x Alexander 5-2

4. 1 1/8 miles(T); $46,000; alw; 3up

HANGINGBYATHREAD drops in class after running evenly at this distance on yielding turf. TOBRUK had a troubled trip when beaten three lengths while going shorter. SEPARATIST closed to finish fourth while going shorter in return to turf.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Stormy Success(L),115 L Saez 8-5-2 Toscano 15-1
2 Pretty Boy Freud(L),117 E Castro 3-5-1 LO'Brien 15-1
3 Princeofproximity(L),110 A Casey 1-6-2 Coffey 50-1
4 Missinglisalewis(L),120 J Castellano 3-2-3 Domino 9-2
5 Hangingbyathread(L),120 C Velasquez 6-5-1 CMartin 2-1
6 Separatist(L),120 R Dominguez 4-1-4 Tagg 5-1
7 Tobruk(L),123 J Lezcano 6-1-3 Sciacca 10-1
8 Hammock(L),120 E Prado 7-7-2 Schosberg 6-1
9 Too Amenable(L),120 R Maragh 1-1-2 Clement 10-1
10 Urban Flight(L),121 C Hill 1-6-4 Violette 8-1
11 Imperial River(L),120 C Velasquez 1-7-4 Bush 15-1
12 Billy Bear(L),120 E Prado 2-1-1 Dutrow 5-2
13 Stopbluffing(L),120 J Castellano 2-3-7 Carroll 8-1
14 Oedipus O'Neal(L),120 No Rider 3-9-1 Contessa 10-1
15 South Fourth St.(L),120 R Maragh 4-5-1 SKlesaris 5-1

5. 7 fur(T); $43,000; alw; 3up

PEGASIAN returns to turf for new barn after finishing third while going longer. CASHN IN DIXIE came off the pace to break maiden while going shorter in career debut. COMPLIANCE OFFICER was a gate to wire winner as favorite in last start on grass.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Mr. Enrico,120 J Samyn 1-3-7 POrtiz 30-1
2 Woodrunner(L),120 C Velasquez 4-2-5 Tagg 4-1
3 Compliance Officer(L),117 R Maragh 4-1-3 Pompay 6-1
4 Marscaponi(L),120 E Castro 8-7-1 Ubillo 30-1
5 Pegasus Tommy D.(L),117 R Dominguez 5-7-3 RDutrow 7-2
6 Brave Soul(L),120 C Hill 8-6-7 Rice 15-1
7 Pegasian(L),120 E Prado 3-5-3 CMartin 10-1
8 Onzain(L),117 D Cohen 6-3-1 Donk 5-1
9 Cash'n in Dixie(L),120 J Castellano 1-x-x Benzel 12-1
10 Big Grey(L),117 J Lezcano 1-5-x Brown 12-1
11 Joey's Chance(L),120 J Espinoza 10-2-5 PKelly 5-1
12 Dontstealmyland(L),117 M Studart 1-6-6 Metivier 30-1
13 Castle Harbour(L),120 J Chavez 5-3-7 Gyarmati 20-1
14 Vinnie Van Go(L),117 R Maragh 7-3-4 Contessa 8-1
15 Papa Jerry(L),120 No Rider 6-5-3 Aquilino 6-1
16 Sergeant Karakorum(L),117 M Studart 4-10-11 Odintz 15-1

6. 5 1/2 fur; $41,000; mdn; 2YO

FLYING VALENTINE comes in with a bullet work for dirt debut after finishing second in career debut. SEIS DE MAYO and entrymate MAGGIES PRINCE are firsters that race with Lasix for career debut. RUNAWAY JIM by good frst out sire and races with Lasix for career debut.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
2 My Friend Sandy,120 E Prado x-x-x Schwartz 4-1
3 Coljak,120 M Studart x-x-x Divitto 20-1
4 Runaway Jim,120 J Lezcano x-x-x Hills 5-1
5 Flying Valentine(L),120 R Dominguez 2-x-x Trombetta 8-5
1 a-Seis de Mayo,120 J Castellano x-x-x Galluscio 7-2
6 LL Flying Notes,120 R Fuentes x-x-x Pringle 20-1
7 Digital Joe,120 R Maragh x-x-x Contessa 10-1
8 Bounder,120 S Morales x-x-x Hertler 12-1
1A a-Maggie's Prince,120 J Castellano x-x-x Galluscio 7-2

7. 5 1/2 fur; $41,000; mdn; 2YO(f)

ROGUES JEWEL cuts back in distance after closing to finish second in last two starts. ALLTHESINGLELADYS chased the pace and tired when making career debut in June. OATKADESTINYSCHILD and entrymate MY LUCKY WAY are firsters that are working steadily for career debut.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 a-Oatkadestinyschild,120 J Chavez x-x-x Galluscio 5-1
2 Musicsetsmefree(L),120 J Lezcano 9-7-3 RHernandez 8-1
3 Lindsay's Point,120 M Studart x-x-x Ubillo 12-1
4 Considerate,120 S Morales x-x-x Hertler 12-1
5 Allthesingleladys(L),120 C Velasquez 5-x-x Brown 9-2
6 Rogue's Jewel(L),120 J Castellano 2-2-5 CMartin 9-5
1A a-My Lucky Way,120 G Richards x-x-x Galluscio 5-1
7 Too Critical(L),120 R Rodriguez 7-10-x Schwartz 15-1
8 My Two Cents,120 E Castro x-x-x Weaver 8-1
9 Runaway Dunne,120 R Maragh x-x-x O'Brien 12-1

8. 6 1/2 fur; $38,000; clm($35,000); 3YO

HEADACHE steps up in class after winning as the favorite and being claimed in last two starts. MISSISSIPPI MAN drops in class in first start since tiring badly in August at Saratoga. WOODACRE closed to finish third in starter allowance this distance in first start off the claim.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Country Trick(L),118 M Studart 1-4-6 Stoklosa 20-1
2 Nemo Landing(L),118 J Lezcano 7-5-12 Peitz 6-1
3 Headache(L),120 R Dominguez 1-1-3 Maker 2-1
4 Well Meant(L),118 J Chavez 6-1-9 Aquilino 15-1
5 That's Rich(L),118 J Castellano 8-6-4 Schwartz 12-1
6 Mississippi Man(L),118 D Cohen 10-5-1 SKlesaris 6-1
7 Right of Way(L),118 C Velasquez 8-5-3 AJerkens 4-1
8 Woodacre(L),118 R Maragh 3-5-2 Callejas 3-1

9. 1m(T); $20,000; mdn clm($25,000); 3up(f)

DR PAULA MOYNAHAN had the lead and finished second by nose while going longer at this level. WATCH SMARTLY faces maiden claimers for first time in first start since February. AS PROMISED closed to finish third at this distance and level. Entrymate SOUTHERN PRINCESS finished third this level going shorter. CRAFTY GEM set the pace and tired this level going longer.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
2 Imagonnacatchyou(L),115 A Casey 9-10-8 PKelly 50-1
3 Dr Paula Moynahan(L),120 R Dominguez 2-6-3 Violette 9-5
4 Vortices(L),115 L Saez 8-6-5 Toscano 50-1
5 Caterina's Term's(L),122 S Morales 9-5-7 Sciacca 20-1
1 a-As Promised(L),122 C Hill 3-7-5 Contessa 6-1
6 Driven by Royalty(L),120 J Castellano 7-8-4 Levine 8-1
7 Watch Smartly(L),122 R Maragh 5-5-2 Ribaudo 2-1
8 Crafty Gem(L),122 J Samyn 5-3-4 Iselin 10-1
9 Previous Pleasure(L),122 C Velasquez 5-4-7 Tesher 12-1
10 In Spite Of(L),120 R Fuentes 7-6-3 Gyarmati 20-1
11 Patti Tiff(L),122 C Daniel 11-8-6 Reynolds 50-1
1A a-Southern Princess(L),120 J Chavez 3-8-8 Contessa 6-1
12 Night,120 No Rider x-x-x RDutrow 5-1
13 Why Then(L),120 No Rider 10-5-x Lerman 15-1

 

[Lumi]

Through the binocs

Through the binocs

Through the binocs


Miss Catalyst raced close to the pace, took over the lead in the stretch and held off the late running challenges of Pull Dancer and favorite Maram to win the $110,000 Pebbles Stakes for 3-year-old fillies by a neck. Pull Dancer won a photo over Maram by a nose for the place spot. Javier Castellano rode the Todd Pletcher trainee to victory, running the mile on the widener turf listed as firm in 1:34.18.
THIRD RACE: Song of Solomon is a 3-year-old full sister to Grade 2 winner Rockport Harbor who shipped in for trainer Tony Dutrow. With Jeremy Rose aboard, Song of Solomon stalked the pace while saving ground, but at the top of the stretch was caught in traffic when a hole did not develop between horses and she had to check. Once she got outside for clear running, she finished with good energy to win a photo by a nose for the show spot over Datts Lady Di. Honest To Betsy looked like a winner on the far turn and challenged favored Acronym for the lead at the top of the stretch, but the favorite still had plenty left and edged away for the victory.

FOURTH RACE: More Than a Reason is in the best form of his career and the margin of victory here does not show how dominant the Randi Persaud trainee was. Under jockey Edgar Prado, More Than a Reason stalked the pace and turning for home had dead aim under the leaders. While Prado sat motionless, More Than a Reason took the lead easily, and then under minimal urging nearing the wire held off favored Tizsilk by half a length for the victory.
NINTH RACE: After the eighth race, Alan Garcia took off his remaining two mounts because he became ill. John Velazquez replaced Garcia on Hoppsey and they were in good position in the stretch, but got in some traffic trouble and could only get up for third. The Cuff Shooter closed well on the rail and took the lead in midstretch, but Sao Sebah, who saved ground for most of the race, angled outside and overtook the field for the victory.
10TH RACE: Javier Castellano replaced Garcia aboard favored More Oats Please and guided the Tom Bush trainee to victory. Mythical Yarn was last early but was full of run in the stretch to place.
PICK SIX
Winning numbers: 9-3-10-9-3-4
8 winners each receive $48,467
373 winners (5 of 6) each receive $262
No carryover

 

[Lumi]

Dave Litfin

Dave Litfin

Dave Litfin

BEST BET: Rogue's Jewel (7th race)


First Race


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1. Sophisticated Lass 2. Mindbender 3. Kevazinga

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If Thursday's opener is switched to the main track, SOPHISTICATED LASS faced more accomplished fillies in a starter allowance first time off the claim, and might've found 7fs a bit longer than she prefers; sharp work at Monmouth last week. On turf, MINDBENDER notched back-to-back wins sprinting on dirt in the spring and then improved her figures in four turf routes, so she may adapt nicely to turf sprints; freshened. KEVAZINGA is trouble prone, but is competitive off her recent figures and was a last-to-first winner this course and trip last fall.

Second Race


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1. Irving Rules 2. Magnificent Tiger 3. Quick Money

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IRVING RULES has been readied by what is presently the hottest 2-year-old barn in the nation; homebred half-brother to graded stakes winners Deeliteful Irving ($479k earner) and Irving's Baby ($763k). MAGNIFICENT TIGER purchased following a much-improved effort when switched to grass; juveniles originating out of Calder have had terrific success in New York the past two seasons. QUICK MONEY has been unable to hold leads at 11-10 and 3-2 on turf and dirt thus far; stretches out to 7fs. ALLTIFFEDOFF out of the good turf mare Tiffany's Taylor, who has produced six-figure earners Tiffany's Rodeo and Ryan Is Flying.

Third Race


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1. Haberdasher 2. Ciminella 3. Limeheart

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HABERDASHER broke alertly and dueled with the eventual (7-5) winner before fading in her debut at Monmouth Park; might shake loose for ever-dangerous trainer with second-time starters. CIMINELLA stumbled at the start and trailed through the opening half-mile, got up for second behind loose-on-lead Kaffie's Doll prior to layoff; best figure earned in lone start on this track. LIMEHEART is turf to dirt and route to sprint for new trainer, after circling wide and finishing evenly; made up eight lengths in shorter dash to begin career.

Fourth Race


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1. Hangingbyathread 2. Separatist 3. Missinglisalewis

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HANGINGBYATHREAD won twice over this inner course at the spring meet, and since then has had a couple less-than-perfect trips against Banrock, who has won six stakes on this circuit the past two years; lone 1 1/8-mile grass winner in the main body of the race. SEPARATIST steadied upper stretch, gained late to wind up close fourth behind the consistent MISSINGLISALEWIS first try in this condition; N1x win in Spa slop suggests he could be the one to beat if race is rained off to main track. Missinglisalewis is 0 for 6 in N2x statebred turf races but has been in the money in five of them; ventures past 1 1/16 miles for the first time.

Fifth Race


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1. Woodrunner 2. Pegasian 3. Onzain

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WOODRUNNER has lost seven of these N1x races against statebreds, four of them as the favorite, but did produce career top figure going 7fs on the Widener earlier this year; timid vote in scramble. PEGASIAN has also had a number of chances at this level since posting maiden win 362 days ago - but that was also the last time he's run over this turf course; may go well against the main-track-only runners if race switches to dirt. ONZAIN had some trouble both N1x starts at the Spa; consistent turf figures, won fresh here in July.

Sixth Race


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1. Flying Valentine 2. Maggie's Prince 3. My Friend Sandy

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FLYING VALENTINE was off slow, rushed up three wide to force pace and saved the place in debut on turf; blew out nicely Saturday at Fair Hill, pedigree and trainer's turf-to-dirt stats bode well for surface switch. MAGGIE'S PRINCE and entrymate SEIS DE MAYO (only one starts) have both turned in bullet works; might expect the latter to run if track comes up wet, in view of 399 Tomlinson and sharp gate work in slop. MY FRIEND SANDY is a half-brother to $116k earner Greg's Lassy; sold for better than nine times sire's stud fee in April. BOUNDER is by a sprint champion and out of Schemer, a $245k earner; bred for wet.

Seventh Race


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1. Rogue's Jewel 2. Allthesingleladys 3. My Lucky Way

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While Miss Lulu Belle was wiring the field at 7-5, ROGUE'S JEWEL was next-to-last early and finished strongly for second after finding best stride first time over this track; big edge on the experienced runners if she runs back to that race. ALLTHESINGLELADYS chased in a fast heat first out vs. So N So, who came back to win an overnight stake at Saratoga; fourth finisher was Mineralogist, winner of the recent J. A. Gimma Stakes. MY LUCKY WAY posted a 1/51 bullet from the gate recently; bred for speed both sides of pedigree.

Eighth Race


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1. Woodacre 2. Headache 3. Mississippi Man

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WOODACRE was well behind fast fractions, rallied wide and missed second by a length in a salty starter handicap first time off the claim; gets ample pace to close into. HEADACHE was claimed from both wins in September, in which he showed versatility vs. different pace setups; trainer 31% with new acquisitions. MISSISSIPPI MAN has been freshened since setting a too-fast pace and stopping at the Spa; main speed of the matchup has won twice following defeats by double-digit lengths.

Ninth Race


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1. Dr Paula Moynahan 2. Watch Smartly 3. As Promised

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DR PAULA MOYNAHAN stretched out nicely after a couple turf sprints, but was nosed out by 2-1 favorite while clearly besting several of these; rates another try. WATCH SMARTLY has been absent for nearly eight months since steadying far turn and again in upper stretch at Gulfstream, where she faced eventual graded stakes winners I Lost My Choo and My Princess Jess the previous winter; returns in a softer spot. AS PROMISED has been freshened since running three improved races on firm turf during the summer, the last two in a 10-day span; only beaten a length last out by same filly who subsequently beat the choice in a photo.

 

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Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Keys for Thursday, Oct. 15

Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Keys for Thursday, Oct. 15

Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Keys for Thursday, Oct. 15
What to Watch for Today: A season-high pick six carryover of more than $85,000 greets horseplayers Thursday.

Meanwhile, the last three winners of the $150,000 Jessamine Stakes have been 11-1, 11-1 and 15-1 propositions, and with a full field of 12 signed on for today?s feature, another big-money chance looms. The Jessamine serves as the final of nine Keeneland-hosted Breeders? Cup ?Win and You?re In? Challenge races as championship day is now just over three weeks away.

Weather: A cold and rainy week is expected to continue Thursday with a 60 percent chance of showers and highs only to reach the mid to upper-40s.

Polycapping 101: In this section, we?ll get race and horse specific to help your handicapping. With an important stakes featured on the grass late in the card, keep an eye on the changes to see if Race 3 remains on the turf. Note we were off the turf on Wednesday.

Maiden claiming routers kick things off in Race 1, and in the previous 17 such events over this course, only one first-time starter has succeeded. Route experience has been important, as 12 of the 17 winners last raced at a mile or longer.

Basement-level $7,500 claimers square off in Race 2, where the Turfway alumni have dominated historically, winning 40% of this class of races at Keeneland in the Poly era. Interestingly, only 2 of 20 winners moved turf-to-Polytrack at this class level with 14 of 20 coming off all-weather surface preps. That said, give a longer look to Lone Survivor and Callie?s Wright.

Only 2 of the 28 turf miles held during the fall meet since 2006 have been won by the horse leading after the opening half-mile. Even in a short field of 6, which typically would favor speed, it?s hard to trust the pace in Race 3. With fewer than 8 starters, every turf mile here during that span has been won by a horse at least 4 lengths back after the opening half-mile.

Race 4 is a rich claiming route ($50,000) with a ton of early speed. If it comes down to a jockeys? race, as well it might, note that Julien Leparoux (25 wins) and Robby Albarado (19) have had clearly the most success at this distance of ground. Trainer Graham Motion?s 9 wins at the distance trail only Bill Mott (10), and he returns multiple Keeneland stakes winner Jade?s Revenge to Lexington with only one outing this year on the resume.

Of the 18 entry-level allowance races run on Polytrack during fall meets, only 1 has been taken by a horse coming off a dirt race. Keep that in mind in Race 5, where no less than 5 of the 8 entrants will try the dirt-to-Poly maneuver. Of the limited sampling of 6 sprints at this class during the fall meets, half (3) have been won by last-out Turfway performers.

Don?t be afraid of a first-time starter in Race 6 just because the 2-year-olds are asked to sprint the elongated distance of 6-1/2 furlongs. In the 12 races over Polytrack in this situation, 6 have been won by rookies.
Early speed could be very tough to run down in Race 9, where maiden claimers sprint the elongated 6-1/2 furlong distance. We?ve only seen 5 races in this scenario, but 4 of them have been won by horses battling for the lead throughout, including one already this young meeting.

Feature Race Play: After a nice $11.80 winner (Perfect For You) Wednesday in this space to open Week 2, we?ll look to keep things going.

The $150,000 Jessamine tops the Thursday action and likely will put a runner or two on the fast track to the Breeders? Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Over the past three years, the Jessamine winner has exited a turf route prep of a mile or more on each occasion, which limits the field in half if you believe in that foundation stat.

While Laragh did manage to wire last year?s Jessamine in a commanding performance, only 8 of the last 50 races at 1-1/16 miles on this turf course have been won by the half-mile leader. Meanwhile, 52% of the races (26-50) have been won by posts 1-4 at this distance.

House of Grace closed like a shot to win her route grass debut at Saratoga for red-hot trainer Ken McPeek and gets my edge here with a good inside draw. Third-place finisher Waynetta, who gets the rematch this afternoon, came out of that Spa race to annihilate grass horses at Arlington. I?ll use the juicy-priced House of Grace with logical players Smart Seattle, Whydah and Hatheer, the latter an impeccably bred daughter of Storm Cat-Golden Apples.

 

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Mike Battaglia's picks for October 15

Mike Battaglia's picks for October 15

Mike Battaglia's picks for October 15
10/15/2009
1st Race
ONELIFEISNOTENOUGH (#7) ran well in a tough maiden race at Ellis Park in August. Throw out his last race on the bog at Kentucky Downs and give him the edge for the hot barn of trainer Rusty Arnold. SOUTHERN CAUSEWAY (#6) finished right behind the top pick at Ellis and was fourth to Bourbon (G3) runner-up Codoy at Turfway. John Velazquez picks up the mount for trainer McPeek and this one looks dangerous. STRAIGHT TALK (#11) is a solid contender in a wide-open race.

2nd Race
MONTEREY BAY (#4) gets the nod in a weak claiming test. DANCE WITH DADDY (#7) won two in a row against bottom claimers at Delaware Park and is the one to beat. O MOON (#3) fits in here.

3rd Race
LUCKY COPY (#4) looks like the controlling speed in this one. She figures to make the lead under Kent Desormeaux and is a candidate for the wire-to-wire win this afternoon. CREATIVE DESIGN (#2) is from the barn of trainer Tom Proctor, who also saddles probable favorite Closeout. She should be a decent price and is capable of a good showing. CLOSEOUT (#1) is the definite class in here, but she lost last out as the odds-on favorite and looks vulnerable again today.

4th Race
JUST JULIAN (#4) has won three of six since trainer Wayne Catalano claimed him in April. He beat a couple of these same rivals last out and appears to be in a good spot to pick up another score under jockey Robby Albarado. IT?S NEVER TOO LATE (#2) will be on or near the lead throughout and is the one to catch. JAMALUDIN (#3) regained his winning form last out and can?t be overlooked despite the class hike.

5th Race
BHANGALOO RUBY (#8) has been idle since February but has been working well for new trainer Eddie Kenneally. She figures to be rallying from just off the pace and her best would make her tough in her comeback. OBSEQUIOUS (#2) has run well in graded stakes races and posted a quick work in Louisville. She prefers more distance but is definitely the one to beat. HONCHIS?N PONCHIS (#3) broke her maiden at Keeneland and rates a chance.

6th Race
NOVEMBER (#9) is a well-bred Darley runner in the capable hands of trainer Eoin Harty. She has been training forwardly and could be ready to win at first asking. HUNT FOR CANDIE (#3) failed as the favorite last out but gets Lasix for the first time and is the one to beat. RAPID RACER (#10) also gets Lasix and jockey Kent Desormeaux picks up the mount.

7th Race
EVADE (#8) has been off since March but is back on his favorite surface. Both of his career wins have come at Keeneland and he rates the edge in a tough allowance race. SARATOGA SINNER (#11) evidently didn?t take to the track at Saratoga. He was good enough to win the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream earlier this year and recent works suggest he will rebound with a solid effort today. COMPROMISE (#4) makes his first start of the year but the lightly raced gelding has never run a bad race and trainer Bill Mott is very adept bringing runners back off the long layoff.

8th Race
SMART SEATTLE (#5) won at first asking and ran well to finish second last out. She should be ready for her best performance in her third career start and looks like a winner in the JPMorgan Chase Jessamine. HOUSE OF GRACE (#3) was very sharp winning her only start and trainer Ken McPeek?s horses have been running very well recently. She is a definite threat to the top pick. HATHEER (#7) was beaten by the top pick in August but came back to win next out and her speed makes her dangerous.

9th Race
TROIS DESIR (#5) ran evenly in both of his races and trainer Bill Mott has terrific numbers with maidens dropping in for a tag for the first time. Give him the edge in the finale. GOOD PROSPECTING (#8) also takes the class drop for trainer Shug McGaughey, who is also dangerous with this type of runner. ANOTHER DANCER (#6) has been idle since January but is a threat.

 

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Bill Howard:

Bill Howard:

Bill Howard:


Race Date: Thursday October 15, 2009
JP Morgan Chase Jessamine Analysis
10/15/2009

SMART SEATTLE finished 2nd in the PG Johnson Stakes at Saragtoga on grass at this distance in just her second career start and has trained well at Fair Hill Training Center since; she has the kind of stalking style that lends itself well to grass racing and with several front-end wantabees in the lineup, this races sets up very well for her to pounce on'em and take control turning for home. HOUSE OF GRACE made it look like taking candy from a baby in her debut at Saratoga at this distance on grass in mid-August; she too is likely to take advantage of fast early fractions today, but concern about her closing from the clouds in this large field as traffic issues may cause her problems. HATHEER won at Saratoga last time out and displayed alot of gameness and determination to win on the front-end after a race-long battle; she won't give in easily but with DREAMINGOFJOSEPHINE, OSCAR DE LA THORN and JONMIL'S EDGE in the gate, she'll be tested from the bell. The latter three are all capable of springing an upset should the top picks not deliver their best; note JONMIL'S EDGE bulleted the Keeneland worktab on turf on October 8.

Bankroll Bets for Thursday, Oct 15
10/15/2009
Bankroll Bets for Thursday October 15:

$25 Players:

$1 Daily Double in races 1 & 2 Cost: $8
Race 1--Bulletproof Spirit, Internalaccounting, Southern Causeway and Consulate
Race 2--Monterey Bay and Miss Krisie Whiz

$ 1 Pick 3 on races 3, 4 & 5 Cost: $8
Race 3--Lady Carlock
Race 4--Just Julian, Rocket Legs
Race 5--Yes It's Barbara, Obsequious, Magic Wand, Sidle

$5 to win on Lady Carlock in race 3 Cost: $5

50-cent Pick 4 in races 6, 7, 8 & 9 Cost: $4
Race 6--Bull Alley, Hunt for Candie
Race 7--Klassi Berti, Compromise
Race 8--Smart Seattle, House of Grace
Race 9--Good Prospecting
Total cost: $25
$50 Players: Use the $25 bets plus:

10-cent Superfecta Box in Race 5: Cost: $12
Yes It's Barbara, O bsequious, Magic Wand, Sidle, Bhangaloo Ruby

$4 Win/Place/Show on Smart Seattle in Race 8 Cost: $12

$1 Daily Double on Races 8 & 9 Cost: $1

Smart Seattle and Good Prospecting
Total cost: $50

$100 Players: Use the above bets and finish off with a $2 pick Six: Cost: $48
Race 4--Just Julian, Rocket Legs
Race 5--Yes It's Barbara, Obsequious
Race 6--Bull Alley, Hunt for Candie
Race 7--Klassy Berti, Compromise
Race 8--Smart Seattle, House of Grace, Hatheer
Race 9--Good Prospecting

$2 left over for a $ 1 Exacta Box on Race 9:
Good Prospecting and Coughsgone
Total cost: $100




Bankroll Bets for Thursday, Oct 15
10/15/2009
Bankroll Bets for Thursday October 15:

$25 Players:

$1 Daily Double in races 1 & 2 Cost: $8
Race 1--Bulletproof Spirit, Internalaccounting, Southern Causeway and Consulate
Race 2--Monterey Bay and Miss Krisie Whiz

$ 1 Pick 3 on races 3, 4 & 5 Cost: $8
Race 3--Lady Carlock
Race 4--Just Julian, Rocket Legs
Race 5--Yes It's Barbara, Obsequious, Magic Wand, Sidle

$5 to win on Lady Carlock in race 3 Cost: $5

50-cent Pick 4 in races 6, 7, 8 & 9 Cost: $4
Race 6--Bull Alley, Hunt for Candie
Race 7--Klassi Berti, Compromise
Race 8--Smart Seattle, House of Grace
Race 9--Good Prospecting
Total cost: $25
$50 Players: Use the $25 bets plus:

10-cent Superfecta Box in Race 5: Cost: $12
Yes It's Barbara, O bsequious, Magic Wand, Sidle, Bhangaloo Ruby

$4 Win/Place/Show on Smart Seattle in Race 8 Cost: $12

$1 Daily Double on Races 8 & 9 Cost: $1

Smart Seattle and Good Prospecting
Total cost: $50

$100 Players: Use the above bets and finish off with a $2 pick Six: Cost: $48
Race 4--Just Julian, Rocket Legs
Race 5--Yes It's Barbara, Obsequious
Race 6--Bull Alley, Hunt for Candie
Race 7--Klassy Berti, Compromise
Race 8--Smart Seattle, House of Grace, Hatheer
Race 9--Good Prospecting

$2 left over for a $ 1 Exacta Box on Race 9:
Good Prospecting and Coughsgone
Total cost: $100

 

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Kim Nelson's Picks for Thursday, October 15

Kim Nelson's Picks for Thursday, October 15

Kim Nelson's Picks for Thursday, October 15
10/15/2009
The feature race on Thursday?s card is the $150,000 JP Morgan Chase Jessamine. This race for 2 year old fillies is contested at 1 1/16 mile over the Keeneland grass. The forecast calls for rain and there is a good possibility that it could be moved to the main track. Either way, my top choice here is Hatheer. The Storm Cat filly is making her 3rd career start for trainer Kiaran Mclaughlin and keeps regular jockey Alan Garcia in the irons. An easy winner last out at this distance, she is a royally bred filly owned by Shadwell Farm. She certainly faces tougher company in this one but she still looks like a standout here. Another to look at is Kenny McPeek?s House of Grace. She won her debut by 5 lengths over the Saratoga grass. Although she is inexperienced, Mr. McPeek is an expert at bringing these kind of fillies over ready to go. Another is Smart Seattle trained by Graham Motion with Jeremy Rose in the irons. A filly by Smart Strike, she comes off 2 solid efforts and poses a threat.

Kim Nelson's Picks for Thursday, October 15
10/15/2009
$25 Bankroll

$2 Daily Double
1st Straight Talk
2nd Miss Krisie Whiz, Lone Survivor
Cost $4

Race 3
$1 Trifecta Box
Lady Carlock, Closeout, Drop a Line
Cost $6

Race 5
$5 to win and place
Yes Its Barbara
Cost $10

Race 8
$5 to win
Hatheer
Cost $5

$90 Bankroll

2 Daily Double
1st Straight Talk
2nd Miss Krisie Whiz, Lone Survivor
Cost $4

Race 3
$2 Trifecta Box
Lady Carlock, Closeout, Drop a Line
Cost $12

Race 4
$1 Trifecta Box
Just Julian, Jamaludin, Solo Cat, Its Never Too Late
Cost $24

Race 5
$5 to win and place
Yes Its Barbara
Cost $10

Race 6
$1 Late Pick 4
6th November, Rapid Racer, Bonita Donita, Hunt for Candie, Connie and Micheal
7th Compromise
8th Hatheer, House of Grace
9th Shofar, Trois Desire
Cost $30

Race 8
$5 to win and place
Hatheer
Cosst $10