HORSE RACING

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HORSE RACING
TODAY AT SANTA ANITA PARK

By Richard Eng

Post Time 12:30 p.m.

Race 1 - 6 furlongs, Purse $12,000, Claiming $10,000, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Come Back Girl - Second start off a 3-month hiatus; ran evenly at 5/2 in last, maybe can grind it out here.

Tuscan Princess - Uncoupled entry from Gerald Piccioni; been away 6-months, need not be much to compete.

Long Shot - Dine at Nine

Race 2 - 1 1/16th miles, Purse $42,000, Maiden special weights, 3-year-olds and up

Sir Ben - Calder imports are reaching legendary status east and west coast; off poor in last, can improve.

Party Hard - Logical chalk has run in the money 6-of-8 starts; tactical speed to sit a perfect trip.

Long Shot - Oliver

Race 3 - 1 1/16th miles, Purse $24,000, Starter allowance $40,000, 3-year-olds and up

Union Soldier - Slow start in last disguised a good effort; should relish the slower pace around 2-turns.

Niger River - Start at Fairplex should do world's for his conditioning; speed to contest early or sit a trip.

Long Shot - Action in May

Race 4 - 6 1/2 furlongs (turf, rail at 15 feet), Purse $40,000, Maiden special weights, 2-year-olds

Via Verde - Beaten favorite ran a winning race for this level in last; one stop of improvement can win it.

Body Builder - FTS from Julio Canani; he has an uncoupled entry and both are very good odds, use one of both.

Long Shot - Boulder Creek

Race 5 - 5 1/2 furlongs, Purse $14,000, Maiden claiming $25,000, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Belated Bid - Taking the biggest class drop in racing from MSW to maiden claiming; Bob Baffert culling out his barn.

Sister Lucy - Joy Scott could use a break, as in winning this race; has speed to provide the target tonight.

Long Shot - Youknowwhatilike

Race 6 - 6 1/2 furlongs (turf, rail at 15 feet), Purse $42,000, Allowance, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Once Upon a Grace - Joel Rosario had choices and opted to ride for Ben Cecil; flattered when Tamerin won next out.

Dotsy Jean - Loses Rosario to the chalk, but Tyler Baze will do just fine; in great form exiting two wins.

Long Shot - Spring Tale

Race 7 - 5 1/2 furlongs, Purse $12,000, Claiming $10,000, 3-year-olds and up

Owners Manual - Suspect if there are 4-legs, there will be a lot of claims; Bobby Frankel cull will be tough.

Oscar the Mayor - Ran well off the drop down by Kristin Mulhall; need not be much to compete with these.

Long Shot - Anzisong

Race 8 - 6 1/2 furlongs (turf, rail at 15 feet), $100,000 Senator Ken Maddy Handicap, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Gotta Have Her - She is a perfect 3-for-3 wins down the hillside course; like the turn back in distance.

Tuscan Evening - The went a furlong too far with her last time; best at one mile or shorter, like today.

Long Shot - Queen ofthe Castle

Race 9 - 5 1/2 furlongs, Purse $14,000, Maiden claiming $25,000, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

A Clever Ten - If things fall right, Joel Rosario can win 4 or 5 races on the card; second time out Adam Kitchingman.

Ata Pretense - Just missed in a big effort last time at 22/1 odds; won't be near that price with C.S. Reyes up.

Long Shot - Kelleys Kitchen

Best Bet - Via Verde (race 4)

Santa Anita Friday - Picks/Winners/Mutuels, 15/4/$22.00; Long Shots, 8/1/$11.40; Best Bet, 1/0/$0

Santa Anita Totals - 229/58/$390.80; Long Shots, 116/21/$235.80; Best Bets, 14/7/$31.40

SIMULCAST PICK OF THE DAY - #2 Miss World (3/1) in race 9 at Keeneland. For scoring purposes, we'll make a hypothetical $2 win, place and show bet, $6 total. On Friday, Fitzaslew ran out at Keeneland. Stats - 151/113/$856.50

 

[Lumi]

At the Gate - Saturday

At the Gate - Saturday

At the Gate - Saturday

We got off to a good start on Friday if you used the opening race, which was in yesterday?s column.

My top pick It?s a Miracle was caught at the wire by my second choice Magical Prize, who retuned $63.40 for the win.

We can call that a ?miracle prize.?

The recommended exacta returned $226.80. I did not use the third place finisher, and we missed out on a $1 trifecta that paid $1,813.30.

The exacta was one of the few bright spots on the day however, as I had a case of seconditis at Keeneland.

It was a chalky day at Belmont Park. I had three winners on top on the nine race card, but they paid just $6.60, $4.70, and $3.90.

You know it?s a chalky day when the early Pick 4 paid $23.70 on a $1 ticket. The late Pick 4 paid just $41.00.

That is the lowest payouts I can remember in New York in a long time.

Today?s card holds more potential unless there is an abundance of late scratches. There is more rain in the forecast and three races are carded for the turf.

The racing office moved today?s Athenia Stakes to Wednesday because of the weather, but still carded three races for the turf, which does not make much sense.

Why not just scrap the entries for all of the turf races for today?

Keeneland has another solid card with plenty of large fields. The feature is the $500,000 Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup Stakes (G1).

The race is not a designated Breeders? Cup Challenge ?Win and You?re In? race, but the race may produce a starter or two for the Filly & Mare Turf.

The co-feature is the $150,000 Perryville Stakes (G1) at seven furlongs on the polytrack.

Warrior?s Reward looks beatable as the 6/5 morning line favorite. Seven will line up in the race, which does not seem likely to produce any runners for the Breeders? Cup Sprint.

Woodbine has three Breeders? Cup Challenge races today, which will be telecast on ESPN this afternoon.

Here are my top two picks for the three races:

Nearctic Stakes: #9 Heros Reward, #11 Jungle Wave.
E.P. Taylor Stakes: #2 Rainbow View, #1 Treat Gently.
Canadian International: #1 Champs Elysees, #5 Marsh Side.

Here is today's opening race from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:

KEE Race 1 Clm $7,500 (1:05 ET)
#4 Between Us 5/2
#11 Flashy Dream 10/1
#10 August Rush 5/1
#6 Illuminque 6/1

Analysis: #4 Between Us is back in for a tag after a fifth place finish last out against $10K starter allowance company at Arlington. The filly has not landed in the money in six trips over turf so the switch back to poly should suit this gal. Two back she was a game second for a $25K tag over poly in a race taken off the turf. The winner of that race was Salty Wave, who beat $25K claimers in her next start. Third place finisher Stormin Princess beat $14K claimers and then $18K claimers in her next two outings. The barn hits at a 43% clip (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to the fake stuff.

#11 Flashy Dream set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth last out against $10K claimers over good ground at Kentucky Downs. The winner of the race was Geri Road, who returned to beat $10K foes again on Sept. 28. She won two and three back at Ellis on the turf and while she has done her best running on turf, she has one win over poly, her maiden break at Turfway back in '07. She come sin here in good form and her 10/1 ML looks fair enough to toss her in the mix.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2/1 or better.
EX: 4,11 / 4,6,10,11
TRI: 4,11 / 4,6,10,11 / 1,4,6,10,11

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 9 Alw $50,000s (5:15 ET)
#5 Taum Sauk 8/1
#9 Another Success 6/1
#8 Banking Holiday 5/2
#2 Cires 5/1

Analysis: #5 Taum Sauk set the early fractions and held on well for the runner up spot last out at this condition. The colt caught a surface that was more favorable to outside stalkers and closers that day. The colt owns solid early and mid pace numbers and in just his sixth career start still appears to have some upside. He has a decent off track pedigree and his 8/1 ML looks generous.

#9 Another Success stalked the early pace, split rivals in the stretch and finished up well but was unable to catch the winner who got the jump on him heading for home. The colt was claimed back by Kimmel after he lost the colt for $60K. The colt makes his third start of his current form cycle and three of his last four figs fit well here. The fact Parisella bought him for $60K and jammed him in for $35K is a concern, but the colt put in a good effort last out.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 5,9 / 2,5,8,9
TRI: 5,9 / 2,5,8,9 / 2,5,6,8,9

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 9 QEII Challenge Cup G1 (5:05 ET)
#6 Lady Shakespeare 6/1
#4 Gozzip Girl 6/5
#5 Shared Account 6/1
#2 Miss World 3/1

Analysis: #6 Lady Shakespeare sure enjoyed her time north of the border, reeling off four consecutive victories at Woodbine. The filly has now won five of her seven career starts and gets the serious class test here as she tries Grade 1 company for the first time. Her full brother Shakespeare did not have a problem with Grade 1 company. The colt won seven of his eight career starts for earnings of $1.29 million. The filly also is a half sister to stakes winner Fantastic Shirl, who earned $251,000 in her career. In her last outing, the filly drew a bum post, was off at the back of the pack, and made a strong late rally to get the job done. It looks like she will get an honest pace here and we should catch a fair price.

#4 Gozzip Girl will be the short priced favorite in here. The filly had a tough trip last out in a fourth place finish in the Garden City (G1) at Belmont Park over soft footing. She had to steady sharply while down along the inside and clipped heels, nearly hitting the turf on the first turn. Her most impressive effort came two back when she shipped to the left coast to win the American Oaks (G1) at Hollywood Park. She can handle ground with some give to it and figures to rebound her with a better trip, but the price is likely going to be on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 2,4,5,6
TRI: 4,6 / 2,4,5,6 / 2,4,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Keeneland
R1: #11 Flashy Dream 10/1
R3: #10 Superb Ravi 10/1
R4: #7 Portend 8/1
R4: #2 Yay Go Me 8/1
R6: #2 Cherokee Queen 12/1
R7: #7 His Greatness 10/1
R8: #9 Dictate the Tempo 12/1
R10: #2 Captiva Pass 10/1

Belmont Park
R2: #6 Oskar Hval 12/1
R3: #6 Maggie?s Miracle 10/1
R4: #5 Hunting 10/1
R5: #6 Loxy Lady 10/1
R7: #7 Trusting Heart 10/1
R7: #4 Top Leader 10/1
R8: #7 Native mambo 8/1
R9: #5 Taum Sauk 8/1
R10: #10 Bunky 8/1
R10: #13 Highveldt 8/1
R10: #5 Tristen?s Mambo 8/1

Good luck today!

 

[Lumi]

OAK TREE RACING

 

[Lumi]

Dave Litfin

Dave Litfin

Dave Litfin

BEST BET: Biker Boy (4th race)


First Race


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1. Rogue Agent 2. Ballast 3. Fire Wood

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If inclement weather forces Saturday's opener off the turf, ROGUE AGENT raced effectively on wet tracks in New York last fall, and the durable 10-year-old got back to that level in two September placings. On turf, BALLAST has had a couple of photo-finish beats recently on soft and firm ground; never been in this cheap. FIRE WOOD finished strongly as the favorite last out; logical threat turf or dirt.

Second Race


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1. Colors Flying 2. Sven Diesel 3. Lieutenant

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COLORS FLYING returned from a 63-day absence with an improved figure in a swiftly run special-weight mile; regally bred colt comes back in two weeks, which is a favorable sign. SVEN DIESEL ran second to first-time starters who came back to repeat in both Del Mar starts; new trainer 37% off the claim, and 33% with turf-to-dirt types like his entrymate, BUDDY'S SONG. Also switching over from turf is LIEUTENANT, who raced greenly in his lone dirt start as a firster; nice breeze on the training track 10 days ago.

Third Race


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1. Stephen's Even 2. Kittys Wish 3. Why Because

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STEPHEN'S EVEN boasts the best last-out figure from a neck loss at this level, has handled off going and projects for a favorable pace setup; along in time. KITTYS WISH has been freshened up, won muddy off-the-turf route here in June; drops to $10k for the first time. WHY BECAUSE fits well based on maiden win at Finger Lakes; part of early mix with KANWICAT, GREEN HARBOR and MAGGIE'S MIRACLE.

Fourth Race


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1. Biker Boy 2. Gold Trippi 3. Honour Devil

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BIKER BOY was an even fourth behind entrymate Kodiak Kowboy in the Carter, and returned from a five-month absence with a good try for second to Cherokee Country, who is currently running the fastest figures of his career; relishes off going. GOLD TRIPPI is equally capable from off the pace on fast and wet tracks; finished gamely for second in overnight stake last out. HONOUR DEVIL outfinished TIMBER RESERVE for second, though no match for Rising Moon in U.S. debut.

Fifth Race


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1. Sorority Sister 2. Smart Trade 3. Goldie Lane

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If switched to dirt, SORORITY SISTER won on good and sloppy tracks at Belmont last September - races which have since dropped "off the page" of her published past performances; on a bounce-rebound pattern after career top Beyer followed by a regression. SMART TRADE should be helped by the cutback to 7fs after being outkicked late by SONIC SOUND and UNIQUE CITIZEN going 1 1/16 miles; Smart Strike filly finished strongly in off-the-turf dash at the Spa. GOLDIE LANE has had a productive campaign winning four of last five starts on turf and dirt; versatile and dangerous shipper.

Sixth Race


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1. Papa Jerry 2. Raceland 3. Rampant

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PAPA JERRY is 3 for 10 at Belmont and 1 for 10 elsewhere, so he appears quite well meant dropping back to a claimer for the first time since closing weekend of the spring-summer meet; accustomed to wet tracks. RACELAND comes off peak efforts back to back, each time outfinished late in 1:09 and change; new trainer, susceptible to a bounce. Take Raceland out of the mix, and RAMPANT, a shipper from Suffolk Downs, would have the best last-out figure.

Seventh Race


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1. Theartofcompromise 2. Lofty Banner 3. Trusting Heart

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THEARTOFCOMPROMISE posted a hard-fought allowance win at Saratoga, then was on short rest against the 7-for-11 Ruffino; rates the call first time in a claimer. LOFTY BANNER is back quickly after second consecutive turf route; fair try on sealed track opening day at the Spa. TRUSTING HEART failed to fire when favored for comeback nine days ago; chased a couple next-out winners on sloppy Belmont strip to begin career.

Eighth Race


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1. Echo in Eternity 2. Bohemia Street 3. Golden Guska

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ECHO IN ETERNITY just missed to a repeater despite steadying and briefly losing action first time in blinkers; recent breeze at Delaware suggests he could handle wet dirt if race comes off the turf. BOHEMIA STREET has been running to his best figures in three starts since return from year-long layoff; came again to just miss in only dirt start at 3. GOLDEN GUSKA finished evenly first time back from a 55-day break; best performance came in second start of initial '09 form cycle on yielding turf.

Ninth Race


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1. Taum Sauk 2. Dream Again 3. Banking Holiday

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TAUM SAUK sat out August and September, but returned with a sharp placing at 31-1; may be tough to catch if he can shake off CIRES down the backstretch. DREAM AGAIN rallied wide and was nosed for third by BANKING HOLIDAY as both ran peak figures going a mile 17 days ago; may turn the tables third start back from layoff, handles wet tracks.

Tenth Race


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1. Quiet All American 2. Drover 3. Trippo

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If the anchor leg of the $350k guaranteed late pick four comes off the turf, perhaps QUIET ALL AMERICAN rates another try; $225k purchase in February took some money in debut. DROVER, a half-brother to champion Ashado and versatile graded stakes winner Sunriver, looms a threat no matter the footing for white-hot barn with 13 juvenile winners at the meet entering the week. TRIPPO has received trouble comments each time out; improved workout Sept. 29, blew out nicely Tuesday. BEAU CHOIX is out of Belle Cherie, a multiple graded stakes winner and half-sis to Octave; gap in training but drilled a quick half recently.

 

[Lumi]

KEENLAND

KEENLAND

Scratches and Changes
Race Description
1 1st Race
#5--Nevaeh's Song--SCRATCH
#8--Contempt--SCRATCH

2nd Race
#8--Pina Colada--SCRATCH

3rd Race
#10--Superb Ravi--SCRATCH

4th Race
As of 11:35 a.m.:
#10--Apple Charlotte--SCRATCH

Previously announced:
#3--Thundering Heat--Jockey change to Alex Solis

5th Race -- NO CHANGES

6th Race
As of 11:35 a.m.:
#1A--Direct Line--SCRATCH

Previously announced:
#5--Flaming Slew--Jockey change to James Graham

7th Race -- Perryville (Presented by Budweiser Select ) (G3)
NO CHANGES

8th Race
As of 11:35 a.m.:
#6--Miss N. V.--Jockey TBA

9th Race -- Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)
#1--Hameildaeme -- (LA) Lasix Adjunct

10th Race -- NO CHANGES

Track Conditions
Saturday, October 17, 2009 10:00 AM
The Polytrack is fast
The Turf Course is soft
The Rail is Up
After Last Night's Races
The field cultivator was used after the races last night with the tines set at five inches; the gallop master was used after with the tines set at 3 inches.

After Morning Training
The Gallop Master will be used once with the tines set at 4 inches and once with the tines set at 3 inches.

During the Races
The Gallop Master will be used after races 2, 4, 6 and 9 with the tines set at 3 inches.

 

[Lumi]

Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Keys for Saturday, Oct. 17

Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Keys for Saturday, Oct. 17

Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Keys for Saturday, Oct. 17
What to Watch for Today: Seven leading sophomore turf fillies that have a combined 12 major stakes wins to their credit headline the 26th running of the $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup this afternoon. Also on today?s undercard, Elarose, a 2-year-old maiden daughter of Spinster heroine Take Charge Lady, makes her local debut in Race 8.

Weather: Cool temps in the mid to upper-40s are forecasted with a 30 percent chance to rain. We were able to keep Friday?s stakes race on the turf course, but keep a close eye on course conditions for Saturday as you can be sure the going will be soft to yielding if on the lawn.

Polycapping 101: In this section, we?ll get race and horse specific to help your handicapping.

Basement-level $7,500 claimers open things in Race 1, where the Turfway alumni have dominated historically, winning 40% of this class of races at Keeneland in the Poly era. In fact, 4 of the 5 races held here last fall meeting at this class level were won by horses who exited preps in Kentucky.

Race 2 is a $30,000 non-winners of 2 lifetime claimer, and both prior races held this meeting have been won by Arlington horses moving from turf-to-Polytrack. In fact, 14 of 27 winners all-time at this level moved turf-to-Poly. Look for attractive, bettable prices at this class level. Favorites are 4-for-27 lifetime, both only 5 winners paid 9-1 or more, and only 1 winner was over 11-1.

Two-year-olds go the 7-furlong trip in Races 4 and 8 this afternoon, and note that first-time starters have captured only 7 of the previous 23 MSW offerings on the Polytrack for the juvenile set. Don?t over-value experience at the distance. Only 3 of the 23 winners had many their previous starts at 7 furlongs or longer. Jockey Robby Albarado (So Very Happy in Race 4; Lyrique in Race 8) has won a colony-best 5 past races of this type with young 2YOs being asked to sprint 7 panels.

Entry-level allowance horses route 1-1/16 miles in Race 5, where a field of 7 has entered. With 7 or fewer starters at this distance all-time, favorites are a sharp 14-for-36 (39%) with only 2 of 36 races resulting in a winner at double-digit odds. Even with a short field size, only 6 of 36 races were won by the half-mile leader.

Deep closers dominated the turf racing opening weekend with the average winner more than 8 lengths behind after the opening half-mile. Keep that in mind as you analyze Race 6 on the grass for allowance horses.

The co-featured G3 Perryville Stakes goes as Race 7 today. In the Polytrack era, the 3 editions of this race have been won by shippers from Saratoga, Del Mar and Turfway and a pair of those came off of dirt races (Del Mar was natural dirt in 2006 when Midnight Lute won the Perryville). Coincidentally, last year?s champ, Hatta Fort, exited a fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Cup Sprint at Turfway, as does this year?s entrant His Greatness. Favorites are just 2-for-17 all-time in 7-furlong sprint stakes over the Poly at Keeneland. The average winner has been less than 2 lengths behind after the opening half-mile of action.

Feature Race Play: We?ve rock and rolled this week nailing the feature race winners Wednesday, Thursday and Friday is succession. Hopefully there?s room for four straight with the racing Gods.


Expect some give in the turf course today at the very least as a wet and cool week should help flatter the form of horses who like softer going. The $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup figures to be a demanding test at 1-1/8 miles.

The past two renewals have seen New York-based fillies invade for the score, Barclay Tagg?s A Bit of Whimsey in 2007 and Kiaran McLaughlin?s Alwajeeha in ?08. Miss World, Gozzip Girl and Shared Account give the Yanks a strong hand once again.

The four turf stakes held last weekend all were quite formful, returning an average price of 5-2 odds and all four were won by New York-based connections. See a pattern?

Gozzip Girl is the strongest of the accomplished New Yorkers in this spot and I love that trainer Tom Albertrani gave her 3 workouts in a 6-day span earlier this month. She will be on edge to run. If anyone can separate the New York state of mind in the gimmicks, give a long look to Hameildaeme. Jockey Alex Solis had a huge Del Mar meet in turf stakes and the British-bred import should love the going no matter how soft it gets.

Feel free to drop me an E-mail anytime at Jeremy@Horseplayerpro.com.

 

[Lumi]

Mike Battaglia's picks for October 17

Mike Battaglia's picks for October 17

Mike Battaglia's picks for October 17
10/17/2009
1st Race
BETWEEN US (#4) drops a notch in class and appears to be in a good spot to get the win with jockey Robby Albarado picking up the mount. IOWA ALICE (#1) figures to be on or near the lead from the inside post. She is the one to catch. AUGUST RUSH (#10) fits with these.

2nd Race
PINA COLADA (#8) ran third in her first race back after a four-month layoff. She drops in for a tag for the first time today and looks like a winner at this level. WINDMILL HILL (#2) also needed her last race and figures to move forward. She broke her maiden on the Polytrack at Turfway and is a contender. FUTURE STORY (#1) rates a shot.

3rd Race
MISS MAFIOSO (#2) has a solid record on all-weather tracks and has trained well over this surface. Her best performance would make her a winner for trainer Eric Reed and jockey Jesus Castanon. AWESOME EXCHANGE (#6) has won 10 races over the past two years and can?t be left out of the gimmicks. BLUE DIABLO (#3) could run well at nice odds.

4th Race
KATY NOW (#11) was second behind Devil May Care, who came back to win the Grade 1 Frizette next out. She should like the added distance and if she takes to the surface she figures to break her maiden in this one. PORTEND (#7) beat half the field in her debut at Kentucky Downs and has been training well over the Keeneland strip. Look for improvement this afternoon. VEUVE (#1) is a contender.

5th Race
ARTISAN (#6) hasn?t shown much recently but broke her maiden over this track back in April. Give her the slight edge. IRISH RIDGE (#2) ran evenly in the Kentucky Cup Distaff. Anything close to her best will make her tough to beat. TRUE BLISS (#5) also owns a win over the Keeneland strip.

6th Race
MY BABY BABY (#8) should be ready for her best performance in her third start back after a long layoff. She figures to be rallying from just off the pace and rates the edge for trainer Ken McPeek and jockey Robby Albarado. MEADOW SAFFRON (#3) ran well against a tough field at Belmont and she could go a long way on the front end today. C. S. SILK (#7) is a definite threat.

7th Race ? Perryville (Presented by Budweiser Select) (G3)
HIS GREATNESS (#7) was fourth in the Kentucky Cup Sprint despite a very wide trip throughout. He figures to show a bit more early speed today and should be in good position from the outside post. He could spring the upset with Alex Solis picking up the mount. EL BRUJO (#1) beat the top pick last out. He loves the Polytrack and will be tough to handle. WARRIOR?S REWARD (#3) is the definite class in here, but he figures to be a short price and he has never run on Polytrack.

8th Race
STAR RECRUIT (#7) broke dead last but rallied to finish third in her debut at Presque Isle. She has trained well since that start and should move forward this afternoon. Give her the edge. CAST CALL (#4) also lost her best chance with a poor start at Saratoga. She is bred to be a good one and will like the added distance. LYRIQUE (#3) debuts for trainer Rusty Arnold and has to be respected.

9th Race
GOZZIP GIRL (#4) lost all chance in the Garden City (G1) when she clipped heels and almost fell in the first turn. Prior to that one, she won on a yielding turf course at Belmont and over the firm going at Hollywood Park. Look for her to regain that winning form in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. MISS WORLD (#2) took advantage of the top pick?s misfortune and won the Garden City for her third straight score. She is definitely improving and jockey Rajiv Maragh, who had an excellent opening weekend here, is back in town for the mount. LADY SHAKESPEARE (#6) has been beating lesser competition but is a contender.

10th Race
SPELL (#3) should be in good position throughout and could spring the mild upset in here. WILD ENTRY (#6) looks like the one to beat but has been a beaten favorite six times in a row, which doesn?t inspire much confidence. KEEP THINKING (#1) has a chance.

 

[Lumi]

Bill Howard

Bill Howard

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Analysis
10/17/2009
SHARED ACCOUNT has been running in 1 1/8 mile turf stakes all su mmer and hasn't been worse than 2nd; she has shown versatility in her theft attempt of the Garden City-G1 at Belmont and the willingness to come from off the pace at Colonial in the Virginia Oaks-G3, which she lost by a diminshing head; can see her either stalking this or taking early control, depending how the race unfolds, but feel she'll be hard to catch if she gets an easy lead. GOZZIP GIRL had traffic problems in the Garden City-G1 last time out and clipped heels; her off the pace romp in the American Oaks-G1 at Hollywood Park was impressive; she'll be the one flying fastest in the stretch today. MISS WORLD overcame traffic to win the Garden City-G1 last time out for her first stakes win; trainer Clemente has been in the money with both his runners this meet and like that this filly performs well regardless of if the turf is firm, soft or good; would be no surprise. Pucker Up-G3 winner HOT CHA CHA lost the Appalachaian S-G3 here last April by a nostril and has the advantage of running over her home track and should not be overlooked. HAMEILDAEME closed from last place to 4th in the Pucker Up-G3 last time much as she did at Del Mar in the Del Mar Oaks-G1 two back; like that she finally gets a good post and could give these gals a run for their money.

Perryville-G3 Analysis
10/17/2009
EL BRUJO got up just in time to win the Ky Cup Sprint-G3 at Turfway going 6f and should appreciate the extra distance to run today; toss out his races in the Plate Trial and Queen's Plate as he's obviously more comfortable sprinting; he is a logical choice from the rail post. WARRIOR'S REWARD cuts back to a sprint for the first time since his N1X win at Churchill last May; he has faced the best of his generation this summer in NY and merits a look off several solid 5f works in Louisville. NOT FOR SILVER won the Carry Back-G2 at Calder in July and has settled for minor awards in stakes at Laurel and Saratoga since; he is a must for exotics in this small field. CONCHACER won the Forward Pass over Arlington's polytrack over HIS GREATNESS and you'll note each have been in the money going 7f both times they've competed at this distance.

Bankroll bets 10/17/09
10/17/2009
Bankroll bets:

$25 Players:
$1 Pick 3 races 4-5-6 cost: $8
Race 4--Ya Go Me, So Very Happy
Race 5--Irish Ridge, Winners Get Even
Race 6--Cherokee Queen, My Baby Baby

$2 Win/Place/Show on El Brujo in Race 7 cost: $6

10-cent Superfecta box Race 3 cost: $2.40
Awesomr Exchange, Lady Seattle, Pish Posh, No Image

10-cent Superfecta box Race 7 cost $2.40
El Brujo, Warrior's Reward, Not for Silver, Conchacer

50-cent Pick 4 races 7-8-9-10 cost $6
7-El Brujo
8-Star Recruit, Cactus Cadillac
9-Shared Account, Gozzip Girl
10-Tizzam, Snowmaster, Spell

$50 players use top bets plus:
$2 win/place/show in Race 1 on Between Us cost: $6
$2 win/place/show in Race 6 on Cherokee Queen cost: $6
$2 win/place/show in Race 10 on Tizzam cost : $6
$1 Daily Double races 3 & 4 cost: $2
3-Miss Redoubled
4--Awesome Exchange, Lady Seattle

50-cent Pick 4 in races 2-3-4-5 cost: $5
2-Miss Redoubled
3-Awesome Exchange, Lady Seattle
4-Yay Go Me
5-Irish Ridge, Winners Get Even, True Bliss, Artisan, Jory Baby

$100 players use top bets plus:
$1 trifecta box in race 9 cost: $24
Shared Acccount, Gozzip Girl, Miss World, Hot Cha Cha

$5 win/place/show in race 6 on Cherokee Queen cost: $15

$1 Daily Double in races 9 & 10 cost: $6
9--Shared Account, Gozzip Girl, Miss World
10--Tizzam, Snowmaster

$5 to win on El Brujo in race 7 cost: $5

 

[Lumi]

Kim Nelson's Picks for Saturday, October 17

Kim Nelson's Picks for Saturday, October 17

Kim Nelson's Picks for Saturday, October 17
10/17/2009
The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup gathers a field of 7 talented ladies. Gozzip Girl is making her 2nd start off a brief layoff and I expect her to be very sharp for this one. Regular rider Kent Desormeaux will be in the irons as the filly makes her 4th Graded Stakes appearance this year. She loves the distance and is quite capable on a soft or firm turf course. Canadian invader Lady Shakespeare brings a 4 for 5 ?09 record and has won on both turf and synthetic. She hasn?t faced this level of company yet but her consistency suggests she is threat. Edgar Prado returns to the irons on Shared Account. This filly has been very competitive with top competition this year and is quite happy over a soft going. Expect her to show some early foot.

Kim Nelson's Picks for Saturday, October 17
10/17/2009
$33 Bankroll

Race 1
$2 Daily Double
1st Between Us
2nd Pina Colada, Lacie Slew
Cost $4

Race 3
$.50 Trifecta Box
Miss Mafioso, Awesome Exchange, Blue Diablo
Cost $3

Race 4
.10 Superfecta Box
Katy Now, Yay Go Me, Apple Charlotte, Veuve, So Very Happy
Cost $12

Race 8
.50 Trifecta Box
Cast Call, Lyrique, Star Recruit, Connie and Micheal
Cost $14

$104 Bankroll

Race 1
$2 Daily Double
1st Between Us
2nd Pina Colada, Lacie Slew
Cost $4

Race 3
$1 Trifecta Box
Miss Mafioso, Awesome Exchange, Blue Diablo
Cost $6

Race 4
.10 Superfecta Box
Katy Now, Yay Go Me, Apple Charlotte, Veuve, So Very Happy
Cost $12

Race 5
$5 to win and place
Irish Ridge
Cost $10

Race 6
$5 to win and place
My Baby Baby
Cost $10

Race 7
$1 Pick 4
7th Warrior?s Reward
8th Cast Call, Lyrique, Connie and Michael, Star Recruit
9th Gozzip Girl, Lady Shakespeare
10th Keep Thinking, Snowmaster
Cost $16

Race 8
$1 Trifecta Box
Cast Call, Lyrique, Star Recruit, Connie and Micheal
Cost $24

Race 9
$2 Trifecta Box
Gozzip Girl, Lady Shakespeare, Shared Account
Cost $12

Race 10
$5 to win and place
Keep Thinking
Cost $10

 

[Lumi]

Post Experts Pick the Winners

Post Experts Pick the Winners

Post Experts Pick the Winners

 

[Lumi]

Belmont Analysis

Belmont Analysis

Belmont Analysis

Post Time: 1:00 p.m. All horses appear in post position order


Today's analysis.

1. 1 1/8m(T); $22,000; clm($20,000); 3up

BALLAST drops in class after finishing second by neck as favorite. Entrymate SOUTHERNMOSTPOINT returns to dirt after tiring last out. VETTRIANO ran evenly versus cheaper while going shorter. BLAZING DYNAMO drops in class after showing some closing ability most recent.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
2 Friendly Sea(L),123 J Baez 2-7-5 Miller 30-1
3 Vettriano(L),123 S Morales 8-2-5 Morrison 8-1
4 Fleet Appeal(L),123 J Lezcano 5-7-2 Dalessandro 6-1
1 a-Ballast(L),123 C Velasquez 2-8-2 Contessa 2-1
5 Blazing Dynamo(L),123 J Velazquez 5-6-8 Toner 4-1
6 Fire Wood(L),123 R Dominguez 2-6-2 Levine 3-1
7 Ungi Blanc(L),123 J Bermudez 5-4-7 Mena 30-1
8 Kettle Two(L),123 R Rodriguez 6-9-4 Baker 12-1
9 One Starry Nite(L),123 J Espinoza 6-7-7 FMartin 30-1
1A a-Southernmostpoint(L),123 No Rider 8-7-1 Contessa 2-1
10 Chief Export(L),123 No Rider 4-3-5 Arroyo 5-1
11 Rogue Agent(L),123 R Dominguez 2-2-2 Alvarado 5-2

2. 1 mile; $44,000; mdn; 3up

COLORS FLYING drew rail after finishing fourth at this distance last out. BUDDY'S SONG returns to dirt after finishing fourth on yielding turf. Entrymate SVEN DIESEL finished second in both career starts. NOBLE RULER makes dirt debut after tiring badly in most recent.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
3 Colors Flying(L),120 J Velazquez 4-6-3 Mcgaughey 2-1
1 a-Lieutenant(L),122 J Chavez 7-7-5 AJerkens 6-1
4 Seattle Brew(L),120 C Velasquez 8-3-2 Kimmel 5-1
2 b-Buddy's Song(L),120 R Dominguez 4-3-9 Levine 8-5
5 R J Hope(L),120 C Hill 6-x-x Iselin 10-1
1A a-Noble Ruler,120 S Morales 11-7-x AJerkens 6-1
2B b-Sven Diesel(L),120 J Lezcano 2-2-x Levine 8-5
6 Oskar Hval(L),120 J Espinoza 8-5-5 Turner 12-1

3. 6 fur; $16,000; clm($10,000); 3up(f)

KITTYS WISH drew the rail and drops in class while cutting back to sprint and goes turf to dirt. Entrymate HAS SQUO KEN fourth this level when going turf to dirt. GREEN HARBOR had the lead and tired to third when making local return. WHY BE CAUSE broke maiden at Finger Lakes for new barn.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 a-Kittys Wish(L),118 J Chavez 9-7-7 Contessa 3-1
2 Kanwicat(L),114 J Davis 5-3-6 Gyarmati 12-1
3 Stephen's Even,118 M Luzzi 2-3-4 Lostritto 9-5
4 Mocha Shake(L),111 R Moya 11-6-9 Lotruglio 30-1
1A a-Has Squoken(L),121 S Morales 4-10-6 Contessa 3-1
5 Green Harbor(L),111 A Casey 3-6-5 Ronen 8-1
6 Maggie's Miracle(L),114 K Fox 4-4-3 Galluscio 10-1
7 Why Because(L),120 R Dominguez 1-5-6 Dalessandro 2-1

4. 1 mile; $56,000; alw; 3up

HONOUR DEVIL cuts back in distance after finishing second while going longer in career debut. BIKER BOY comes in with a bullet work for return to route after being a beaten favorite in last two starts. TIMBER RESERVE finished third while going longer in stakes.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Unbridled Danger(L),113 A Casey 7-7-5 Young 30-1
2 Gold Trippi(L),121 C Velasquez 2-9-1 Hough 3-1
3 Biker Boy(L),120 J Velazquez 2-4-1 Zito 8-5
4 Honour Devil(L),120 R Dominguez 2-2-3 Mclaughlin 2-1
5 Hunting(L),121 J Lezcano 5-3-5 Mcgaughey 10-1
6 Timber Reserve(L),120 J Bravo 3-7-6 Kimmel 6-1

5. 7 fur(T); $43,000; alw; 3up(f)

SMART TRADE switches back to Dominguez, who was aboard for her last victory, and cuts back in distance after finishing fourth. SONIC SOUND closed to finish second in her last two starts. GOLDIE LANE came off the pace to win starter allowance as favorite in return to turf.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
2 Speak Easy Gal(L),117 M Luzzi 1-4-x Contessa 12-1
3 Sonic Sound(L),120 S Morales 2-2-5 Baker 5-2
4 Blue Hill Bay(L),120 J Espinoza 6-1-2 Everett 8-1
1 a-Fiona Freud(L),121 C Velasquez 1-6-4 Ritvo 6-1
5 Smart Trade(L),117 R Dominguez 4-7-1 Maker 4-1
6 Loxy Lady(L),120 J Lezcano 1-2-7 Hennig 10-1
7 Goldie Lane(L),121 J Chavez 1-3-1 Pecoraro 9-2
8 Unique Citizen(L),120 J Samyn 3-8-5 POrtiz 10-1
9 No Rhyme Or Reason(L),117 J Velazquez 3-4-7 Domino 12-1
1A a-Sorority Sister(L),120 C Velasquez 6-3-5 Ritvo 6-1

6. 6 1/2 fur; $17,000; clm($7,500); 3up

DEBATING finished fourth this level while going longer two back. STERLING HEAT cuts back in distance and drops in class for first start since June for new barn. RACELAND debuts for new barn after tiring to third at this distance.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Raceland(L),120 R Rodriguez 3-2-8 Persaud 3-1
2 French Transition(L),120 J Espinoza 10-5-5 FMartin 20-1
3 Sterling Heat(L),120 C Hill 6-7-3 Toscano 8-1
4 Debating(L),120 J Lezcano 7-4-5 Brown 6-1
5 Akebono(L),120 C Goberdhan 7-2-1 Hull 20-1
6 Golden Man(L),120 J Bermudez 8-8-6 Arroyo 20-1
7 Callmetony(L),121 R Fuentes 6-1-7 Dalessandro 4-1
8 Papa Jerry(L),120 J Chavez 6-5-3 Aquilino 7-2
9 Rampant(L),121 R Dominguez 1-2-3 Signore 5-1

7. 1 mile; $16,000; clm($10,000); 3up

VOLOS returns to route after running evenly at this level last out. THEARTOFCOMPROMISE cuts back in distance and drops in class while off brief freshening. LOFTY BANNER goes turf to dirt and drops in class.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Come Soon(L),120 R Rodriguez 8-7-2 DiPrima 10-1
2 Theartofcompromise(L),120 J Lezcano 5-1-2 Serpe 8-5
3 Artytheonemanparty(L),120 J Rivera 10-6-10 Lotruglio 20-1
4 Top Leader(L),120 R Dominguez 3-4-7 Ryerson 8-1
5 Lofty Banner(L),117 J Chavez 8-6-4 Contessa 6-1
6 El Borracho(L),121 C Velasquez 1-4-2 Dutrow 4-1
7 Trusting Heart(L),117 M Luzzi 6-6-1 Hough 8-1
8 Volos(L),120 C Marquez 5-5-3 Arroyo 8-1
9 Mastermind(L),113 J Davis 7-4-8 Creary 20-1

8. 7 fur(T); $22,000; clm($25,000); 3up

ECHO IN ETERNITY stretches out after being hard used throughout and finishing second by nose. SHAREHOLDER DUES drew off to break maiden at this distance last out. MACHO CHICK cuts back in distance for first start since breaking maiden in April. BOHEMIA STREET ran evenly in starter allowance in most recent.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
2 Golden Guska(L),121 M Luzzi 4-4-2 Galluscio 4-1
3 Kick Up Your Heels(L),121 R Rodriguez 11-9-9 FMartin 50-1
4 Key Victory(L),121 C Velasquez 2-11-5 Carroll 8-1
1 a-Shareholder Dues(L),118 J Velazquez 1-4-3 Callejas 6-1
5 Echo in Eternity(L),118 R Dominguez 2-6-2 Pletcher 5-2
6 Castle Harbour(L),121 J Chavez 5-3-7 Gyarmati 12-1
7 Native Mambo(L),120 J Lezcano 1-2-3 Peitz 8-1
8 Bohemia Street(L),121 C Hill 5-6-2 Hushion 3-1
9 Interference(L),121 S Morales 6-4-8 Friedman 20-1
1A a-Macho Chick(L),121 J Espinoza 1-3-2 Callejas 6-1
10 San Naa(L),121 M Studart 7-2-9 Sciacca 6-1
11 Driven by Royal(L),118 R Fuentes 4-8-2 Hull 8-1
12 Sergeant Karakorum(L),118 M Studart 4-10-11 Odintz 12-1
13 Stormzapper(L),121 R Dominguez 1-6-x Orseno 3-1

9. 7 fur; $43,000; alw; 3up

BANKING HOLIDAY cuts back in distance after finishing third by a neck when adding blinkers. DREAM AGAIN closed to finish fourth while going longer last out. TAUM SAUK set the pace and finished second when cutting back to sprint.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
2 Cires(L),117 J Velazquez 1-5-x Brown 5-1
3 Jazz Hands(L),117 J Bravo 1-1-3 Galluscio 12-1
4 May Day Now(L),117 J Espinoza 1-10-4 Contessa 10-1
5 Taum Sauk(L),117 C Hill 2-3-6 Peitz 8-1
1 a-King Bo Bo(L),110 K Fox 3-3-1 POrtiz 20-1
6 Dream Again(L),120 C Velasquez 4-3-1 Penna 3-1
1A a-Sonny's the One(L),113 K Fox 3-2-6 POrtiz 20-1
7 Mr. Universe(L),120 J Lezcano 5-6-8 JJerkens 10-1
8 Banking Holiday(L),120 R Dominguez 3-4-5 Maker 5-2
9 Another Success(L),117 M Luzzi 2-1-2 Kimmel 6-1

10. 7 fur(T); $44,000; mdn; 2YO

BEAU CHOIX races with Lasix and shows a bullet work two back for career debut. DROVER finished second in an off the turf race as the favorite. TRIPPO cuts back to sprint and comes in with a bullet work while drawing the rail. EL COMMO DORE cuts back to sprint while off brief freshening. TIZ MINE races with Lasix for career debut.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
4 Trippo(L),120 C Velasquez 7-5-6 Alexander 5-1
1 a-El Commodore(L),120 J Bravo 9-6-7 Mott 8-1
5 Tristen's Mambo,120 C Hill x-x-x Mclaughlin 8-1
2 b-Gold Cup Kid,120 M Luzzi x-x-x Zito 15-1
6 Ready to Dazzle,120 J Chavez x-x-x Hennig 10-1
7 Drover(L),120 J Velazquez 2-4-x Pletcher 7-2
8 Man Card(L),120 C Marquez 2-8-x Pompay 15-1
3 c-Seize Power,120 R Dominguez x-x-x Frankel 5-1
9 Beau Choix,120 J Lezcano x-x-x Tagg 3-1
2B b-Z Force,120 J Lezcano x-x-x Zito 15-1
3X c-Don Cavallo,120 R Dominguez x-x-x Frankel 5-1
1A a-Tiz Mine,120 J Bravo x-x-x Mott 8-1
10 Bunky,120 C Marquez x-x-x Blusiewicz 8-1
11 Tee Em Arr,120 No Rider 10-x-x Jolley 20-1
12 Quiet All American(L),120 No Rider 3-x-x Romans 6-1
13 Highveldt Storm(L),120 No Rider 6-x-x JJerkens 8-1

 

[Lumi]

Through the binocs

Through the binocs

Through the binocs

Track was sloppy, sealed, on another gray, frigid day; no turf racing, with the first, fifth, seventh, eighth races switched to main; 35 scratches. With more rain in the forecast, tomorrow's scheduled feature, the Grade 3 Knickerbocker on turf, has been postponed to Thursday.

No winner paid more than $8.30; seven winners were 9-5 or less; four were odds-on. Smallest margin of victory was 1 1/4 lengths, most were much more than that. Hey, things could be worse. At Laurel, they cancelled yesterday's second race after six of the seven horses entered were scratched.

Alan Garcia withdrew his appeal and begins a seven-day suspension today for careless riding in the King's Bishop at Saratoga on Aug. 29. Garcia was aboard Vineyard Haven, last year's Hopeful winner making his first start since March, who finished first but came out in deep stretch under Garcia's left-hand stick to whack Capt. Candyman Can. Vineyard Haven was DQ'ed and Capt. Candyman Can declared the winner.
SECOND RACE: Nick Zito's 2-year-old Vindication colt V Sat, seventh in his debut on opening day at Saratoga after flashing speed, was only horse in field of five that had run before. Favored at 6-5, he dashed to lead under Cornelio Velasquez, chased by Kiran McLaughlin firster, 5-2 Quay Lime Pie, Alan Garcia up. Quay Lime Pie made nice run at V Sat turning for home and kept up the pressure to deep stretch, when V Sat again pulled clear.
THIRD RACE: Cuff Me, 2-year-old N.Y.-bred Officer filly making her first start for Tony Dutrow since blowing them away first time out last June in the slop, drifted from 1-9 to 1-5 by post time. There was a bit of excitement as 9-2 Subtle Sweetness, after dueling early with Cuff Me to her inside, opened daylight heading into the turn. But Ramon Dominguez took Cuff Me off the rail on the turn, coasted to the lead top of stretch and drew clear in a common gallop.
EIGHTH RACE: American Land, 30-1, set pace, then was overtaken by 17-1 Dancing Daisy turning for home. But 5-2 Vicarious struck lead midstretch under Javier Castellano, and she was worn down late by even-money Lemon Punch, Cornelio Velasquez up, who won by 1 1/4 lengths.
PICK SIX
Winning numbers: 1-12-3-14-1a-9
120 winners (6 of 6) paid $296
1,176 consolation (5 of 6) paid $10
No Carryover

 

[Lumi]

Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009

Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009

Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009
Saturday?s program kicks off with a vulnerable morning line choice, #5 Come Back Girl, and that makes this race playable. The Monteleone-trained filly was a fading ninth in an open $10,000 claimer last week but might be capable of improving with Rosario riding her back in this restricted (non-winners since May 1) bottom rung affair. She was fairly sharp last spring but really hasn?t done much since. Instead, we?ll focus on #2 Dine At Nine, probably the quickest of the quick and with proven winning form over the Pro-Ride surface, and #6 Flower Fusion, who exits the same race as Come Back Girl but lands the cozy outside post and seems most effective when held up early and allowed to run late. That?s the kind of trip she figures to receive today.

There?s little value in the second race, as the winner most likely will be either #5 Oliver or #6 Party Hard. They?ll be the two favorites and both are hard to trust, especially ?Hard, who is about as one-paced as a horse can get. Oliver has had fewer chances and probably has the most room to improve, so of the two, that?s the one we?d prefer.

The third race presents another small field with a lack of contention. At 7/2 on the morning line, #5 Niger River might be worth a small play, as he?s back with bug boy Reyes, who rode this gelding to a second place finish in his career-top (84 Beyer) effort two runs back at Del Mar. They?ll probably be crawling early and Niger River should be just where he wants to be, prompting slow fractions.

The fourth race ushers in the Pick-6 sequence and if you don?t trust the 6/5 morning line favorite, #5 Via Verde, you?ll have a plenty of choices at decent prices. Via Verde is clearly the best of the known element, having finished second in both starts in pretty good races for the level. He looks well placed unless one of the first timers can run, but none of the newcomers have shown the kind of ability in the morning to win at first asking. Trainer Julio Canani has a pair of first timers in the field, #1 Fandino and #4 Body Builder, with the former owning the more impressive work tab, but Canani isn?t one to crank up his maidens. The other newcomer, the Hofmans-trained #7 New Millennium, was a $150,000 two-year-old in training buy, but hasn?t impressed the private clockers.

Weak maiden claiming older fillies and mares get together in the fifth race, and the Baffert comebacker, #5 Belated Bid, could not have found an easier spot. She flashed speed vs. much stronger straight maiden types last spring in a pair of outings and sports the typical fast Baffert series of drills for her return. She certainly won?t have to be much to outrun #6 Sister Lucy, who has some cheap speed (emphasis on cheap) and could be on the lead for much of the way. However, she has lost ground from the stretch call (furlong pole) to the wire in every one of her eight career starts.

The sixth race is a highly contentious turf sprint and the handicapper can go in a number of different directions to find value. #7 Dotsy Jean hasn?t been out since July at Hollywood Park but when last seen she had put together two outstanding turf sprint efforts, winning both in very sharp style over the Hollywood Park lawn. She?s run well in both of her previous downhill efforts but the work tab is a tad light and we assume Rosario, who was aboard her in both of her Inglewood victories, opted for #9 Once Upon a Grace, who he did not ride in either of her Del Mar outings. I guess if that?s his preferred mount, than you have to take Once Upon a Grace seriously. Other major contenders include #6 North Rodeo, with a benefit of a good race over the track and with a decent try over the course last winter; #4 Rose Diamond, group-stakes placed in Europe last year and making her U.S. debut for Biancone with a promising work tab; #10 Spring Tale, a route to sprint play with the ideal style for this course, and #11 Fanatical, who ran well in a mid-level claimer earlier this month despite breaking through the gate prior to the start. If I had to come up with a 3-horse trifecta box, I?d use North Rodeo, Once Upon A Grace and Spring Tale.

The seventh is full of question marks with numerous class droppers and concerns surrounding the current form of many of the contenders. #3 Owners Manual has had two races since 2007 and is plummeting to the bottom. Of course, he?s good enough but what kind of shape is he in? #4 Bev?s Ex hasn?t been seen in more than a year and while the works look decent for Sadler, he returns at the bottom, which places into question his health. If you?re playing this race in your rolling exotics, the only way to be assured of getting past it is to use ?em all.

The featured eighth race, the Senator Ken Maddy Handicap, is a hillside sprint that could be won by any one of four or more. #2 Gotta Have Her, #4 Reba Is Tops, and #5 Tuscan Evening finished one-two-three in the Las Cienegas Handicap last spring under identical conditions and three-quarters of a length separated them at the wire. Toss in #6 Queen ofthe Catsle, beaten a head in a $200,000 turf sprint stakes at Philadelphia Park last month and you might very well have another blanket finish with racing luck determining the winner. Pick the one you like.

If you?re looking for a Pick-6 single, #9 A Clever Ten seems like an ideal candidate in the ninth race. The Kitchingman-trained filly didn?t leave well and ran like a short horse when fifth in her debut, but should be fitter and tougher today for a trainer whose second time starters usually improve. Drawn comfortably outside and catching a very weak field, the daughter of Decarchy should be able to control this race from gate to wire.

 

[Lumi]

Daily Racing Form Analysis

 

[Lumi]

Larry Zap

Larry Zap

Handicapping Picks for 10/17/2009
Race 4 - #3 Boulder Creek 6-1

this guy breezed & sold in Feb. at the first two year old in training sale of the year...he showed a big fluent stride scoring very high on my VI (visual index)...my notes indicated turf would be no problem...the fact that he was able to breeze an 1/8 of a mile in 10.1 out a 1/4 in 21 & change indicated to me that he would be able to come out firing early in his career...tab for big debut

 

[Lumi]

Bob Ike's Free Pick of the Day for Saturday, Oct. 17

Bob Ike's Free Pick of the Day for Saturday, Oct. 17

Bob Ike's Free Pick of the Day for Saturday, Oct. 17
2nd race--
#5 OLIVER (9-5) Short fields are commonplace for most of this card but I
do like second-choice OLIVER in this straight maiden route. He figures to sit
second in the early going and get the jump on the cash-burning favorite
drawn to his outside.
Yesterday's Result: STUNNINGLY finished second in 7th race.
SHOWVIVOR: VIA VERDE (4th race)
Days Survived: 6

 

[Lumi]

Rick Harris: CAL HORSE

Rick Harris: CAL HORSE

Race 7 - Pick Three
OSCAR THE MAYOR - OWNERS MANUAL
with
GOTTA HAVE HER - TUSCAN EVENING - QUEEN OFTHE CATSLE - REBA IS TOPS
with
A CLEVER TEN - COVER GIRLS GIRL

5-3 / 2-5-6-4 / 9-8

 

[Lumi]

Ellis Starr

Ellis Starr

Race #8 - Rating = 2
#2 Gotta Have Her - Fair odds 7/5
#11 Flashover - Fair odds 5/2

This race is very deep and as such I wouldn?t argue with anyone that insisted that #4 Reba is Tops, #5 Tuscan Evening or #6 Queen of the Catsle could win.

Exactas: 2 with 4,5,6,11 and 4,5,6,11 with 2 then also 11 with 2,4,5,6 and 2,4,5,6 with 11

Gotta Have Her is a perfect 3 for 3 down this tricky specialist?s course, including a win in the similar Las Cienegas Handicap in April. Tyler Baze has been her pilot for six races including 3 wins, two down the hill, and since she just won the Grade 2 Palomar Handicap at 1 1/16 miles on the turf, winning at this grade 3 level on the cut back, the same cut back she won off the last time she did it in March, seems highly probable.

Flashover gets the best post for this trip, the outside, and comes into the race off a career best effort down the hill when 2nd in the Cal Cup Distaff Handicap on 10/3, missing by ? of a length in a field of 10. She 2 wins and one runner-up finish in 3 career starts down the hill, almost as good a record at the top choice, and although she?s never run in a graded stakes that last race carried the same 100K purse as this race so I?d say she fits at this level and could be right there at the wire to be a part of the exacta at the least once more, and at much higher odds than Gotta Have Her.

 

[Lumi]

TODAYS RACING DIGEST

 

[Lumi]

Joe Takach

RACE 8---GOTTA HAVE HER (best bet)
Sahadi mare is unbeaten down this hillside course in 3 starts. Won a Grade 2 at Del Mar 38 days ago going long and has worked 4 times since. Tyler Baze remounts and the pair looks very tough in this spot.